North Korea says nuclear test successful

Good, good, good! Let's hope this is the real beginning of the end for the Kim regime! China and Japan have just agreed that they would not tolerate a nuclear NK. The next few days should be very very interesting.

Another thought: This perhaps means the situation inside NK is becoming more unstable than we originally thought. Kim is presumably in the process of securing the succession of the third generation of the Kim dynasty. For Kim Jong Il to show his final card like this, things must be pretty bad domestically.

Yeah lucky I had CNN on or else I would of missed this now it's everywhere
Here's one from BBC

North Korea in nuclear test claim

Reports from North and South Korea say the communist authorities in North Korea have carried out their first ever test of a nuclear weapon.

The North Korean state news agency said the underground test was a success.

In South Korea, President Roh Moo-hyun convened a meeting of his top security officials following the reports.

North Korea said last week that it planned to test a nuclear weapon, in defiance of international warnings, because of what it called US hostility.

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Let's hope there is no war or bloodshed.

RedMercury said:

Let's hope there is no war or bloodshed.

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No, a war is not likely. SK, Japan, China, and maybe the US have too much to lose in a war over this. I'm hoping for real economic sanctions from China which will hopefully cause the NK regime to implode without too much damage to everyone else.

US and Japanese geologists haven't detected any seismic activity to confirm this supposed underground nuclear test however. We'll see how this turns out.

No, a war is not likely. SK, Japan, China, and maybe the US have too much to lose in a war over this. I'm hoping for real economic sanctions from China which will hopefully cause the NK regime to implode without too much damage to everyone else.

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A suddently collapsed NK regime would be the next worst thing to war for South Korea and China however. There will be a flood of millions of refugees from a failed, starving, and destitute state; along with a huge military arsenal (which probably includes chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons) that will be up for grabs.

Well, I think we are entering the endgame for the North Korean nuclear issue. In the next few weeks/months we will be able to tell with some certainty whether the North will get away with it or if it will be forced to make a major concession or give up the bomb. I'm not gonna make any predictions as to how it will go.

What an interesting series of events. I predict that the status quo should be the same. After all, most nations have begun treating the DPRK as a nuclear nation already. The United States have long assumed that they have a nuclear weapon. I suppose the United States should be happy that DPRK spent a nuclear weapon on a nuclear test on their own soil.

Oh, and in other news, ROK has just announced that they detected the tremor of the nuclear blast. Whether or not it was caused by an earthquake or a nuclear blast we will have to wait for more analysis.

Spike

US and Japanese geologists haven't detected any seismic activity to confirm this supposed underground nuclear test however. We'll see how this turns out.

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Two sources i read states it measured 3.5 and 6 on Richter Scale. I cannot see North Korean government would collapse in the short term, it has survived many problems, previously.

Could the seismic activity be caused by a large conventional bomb? would it be relistic to explode that much tonnage. If not, its just a theory that North Korea staged the episode.

The Bush administration is in a bad situation because the democrates under Clinton had a more progressive policy towards the North, Whereas the Bush camp has pretty much sought to destabilise the regime.

What is interesting is what Japan is going to constituationally do. I could only speculate what this could potentially do to Japaneses/ Chinese relations.

Undead Yogurt said:

No, a war is not likely. SK, Japan, China, and maybe the US have too much to lose in a war over this. I'm hoping for real economic sanctions from China which will hopefully cause the NK regime to implode without too much damage to everyone else.

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You say it like China's more on US's side than North Korea. A while ago, Hu Jintao told NK's Kim to "relax" as tensions began to rise among the six party talks. China now pledges with Japan to increase international reputation that they're neutral, which they are. But trust me, China won't be helping US, SK, and Japan if war results.

Spike said:

A suddently collapsed NK regime would be the next worst thing to war for South Korea and China however. There will be a flood of millions of refugees from a failed, starving, and destitute state; along with a huge military arsenal (which probably includes chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons) that will be up for grabs.

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I wonder if refugees would be such a problem for China and South Korea. They could afford to look after them, even if they'd prefer North Korea not collapse.

In regards to nuclear weapons, I'm sure that China could roll in and snap them up before they disappeared - no one would object to that, provided Beijing didn't try to turn the place into a puppet regime. Besides you have to remember that North Korea merely has enough plutonium for a couple of nukes - that doesn't mean it has warheads ready to stick in a suitcase and sell to Bin Laden. I doubt they could even deliver a warhead if they had one.

So in some respects it might be better for North Korea to collapse now, rather than in x years time when they have several warheads lying around ready for some general to jump onto a cargo ship or plane with to sell for hundreds of millions of dollars. I'm not so sure North Korea can actually get itself out of this mess - just about everything is wrong with that country and the leadership is incapable of doing anything because they're just propaganda-programmed robots. I doubt there is anyone there in a position of power that could reform the place.

Maybe North Korea should go through some sharp pain now and then get rebuilding, rather than barely survive for the next few decades and live in permanent decay and pain.