North Korea says nuclear test successful

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
Just wondering, but what do China and Russia (especially Russia) have to gain from opposing sanctions on North Korea? I understand that China is worried about a total collapse of the North with the associated flood of refugees, etc. but really, is the continued opposition worth it? Supporting sanctions would serve to reciprocate Japan's bridge-building measures FuManchu was talking about, make friends in South Korea and make the US more willing to repay China, for example by cancelling arms shipments to Taiwan.
 

Spike

Banned Idiot
Just wondering, but what do China and Russia (especially Russia) have to gain from opposing sanctions on North Korea? I understand that China is worried about a total collapse of the North with the associated flood of refugees, etc. but really, is the continued opposition worth it? Supporting sanctions would serve to reciprocate Japan's bridge-building measures FuManchu was talking about, make friends in South Korea and make the US more willing to repay China, for example by cancelling arms shipments to Taiwan.

I'm actually thinking along the same lines but I'm still trying figure out why China is acting the way it is. Perhaps they really fear a massive, uncontrollable influx of millions of refugees into the already underdeveloped north-east area (also known as the 'rust belt') will upset a fragile situation domestically. Unless the DMZ gets demined pretty quickly, most refugees will have to go north, not south. Also it could be that they just really find the idea of American troops at the Yalu distasteful, afterall they went to war the last time it happened. Finally, the North Koreans are the PRC's longtime ally. If they turn their back upon them, how would new 'friends' that they are pursuing view such an act?
 

RedMercury

Junior Member
I'm actually thinking along the same lines but I'm still trying figure out why China is acting the way it is. Perhaps they really fear a massive, uncontrollable influx of millions of refugees into the already underdeveloped north-east area (also known as the 'rust belt') will upset a fragile situation domestically. Unless the DMZ gets demined pretty quickly, most refugees will have to go north, not south. Also it could be that they just really find the idea of American troops at the Yalu distasteful, afterall they went to war the last time it happened. Finally, the North Koreans are the PRC's longtime ally. If they turn their back upon them, how would new 'friends' that they are pursuing view such an act?

Distasteful is quite an understatement.

The last point is worth noting. I'm sure Iran, Sudan, and to a degree, Pakistan, are all eyeing this situation to see if China is willing to stand up to Western pressure. Political realities are far more complicated than the mass media would have us believe.
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Political realities are far more complicated than the mass media would have us believe

They certainly are. One favourite political game is to derail your opponent by pretending to be on his side. The idea of this is to promote the illusion of Unity, the objective is to force your opponent to be viewed as the guy that broke the consensus.

This I believe,is what we are seeing over NK, which is why China and Russia are taking the line that they are. By "supporting" tough measures they can work to ensure that nothing of any significance is achieved by the Security Council. Had they opposed such a stance they would have been accused of fostering Nuclear Proliferation and given the other factions a free hand to detemine whatever they liked. If the US and its allies now want to exceed any agreed Security Council measures, it will be they who will be painted as the wreckers of consensus.

Hope it makes sense;)
 

Spike

Banned Idiot
Seoul, Beijing debate NK sanctions
POSTED: 0629 GMT (1429 HKT), October 13, 2006

TOKYO, Japan (CNN) -- Presidents of China and South Korea met Friday to discuss possible sanctions against North Korea for its claimed nuclear test, as Japan passed a new set of penalties against the Asian country.

Meanwhile, some progress was reported at the United Nations on a draft resolution calling for sanctions against Pyongyang.

Meeting in Beijing, Chinese President Hu Jintao said he and his South Korean counterpart, Roh Moo-hyun, "achieved important agreement" on the nuclear dispute in a 50-minute meeting, according to reports from The Associated Press.

Both Seoul and Beijing, the North's main sources of aid and trade, support sanctions but have warned against worsening the situation by overreacting.

In Tokyo, however, the Japanese Cabinet on Friday approved wide-ranging sanctions on North Korea in the wake of its claim to have conducted a nuclear test on Monday.

Japan has joined the United States in calling for the U.N. Security Council to impose sanctions on North Korea that would be binding on all U.N. member states, in a bid to pressure North Korea to return to negotiations and give up its nuclear ambitions.

U.S. President George W. Bush has warned the North Koreans not to act aggressively against its neighbors, saying the United States would honor its commitments to back Japan and South Korea militarily in the event of an attack.

Warnings of overreaction
Both Seoul and Beijing, the North's main sources of aid and trade, support sanctions but have warned against worsening the situation by overreacting.

"Sanctions should be done in a way that brings the effect we want, rather than being implemented emotionally and as an instant reaction," a South Korean official said at a briefing in Seoul, according to the South's Yonhap news agency. The official was not identified by name.

Roh's office confirmed the content of the remarks, according to The Associated Press.

The latest U.S. draft of a United Nations resolution, obtained by The Associated Press, says any further action would need a new resolution, a key Chinese demand.

It was circulated Thursday night to the 15-member Security Council after the five permanent members and Japan overcame key differences and neared agreement on a resolution.

China, a permanent council member with power to veto U.N. actions, has opposed more severe measures proposed by Washington, saying it wants time to work out a more moderate response.

Roh and Hu were likely to discuss such "effectiveness-oriented ways of sanctioning North Korea" and possibly the Security Council draft, the South Korean official said, according to Yonhap.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is likely to visit South Korea next week, another South Korean official in Seoul said Friday.

Final details of the trip were still under discussion, the official told The Associated Press, speaking on condition of anonymity because the visit had not been announced officially.

Rice also was expected to visit Japan next Tuesday on a trip that is also likely to include a stop in China, Japan's Kyodo News agency reported Friday, citing unidentified Japanese and U.S. officials.

Fear of military response
At the United Nations, the United States insisted a resolution must be under Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter, which authorizes punishments ranging from breaking diplomatic ties and imposing economic sanctions to naval blockades and military actions, AP reported.

The new U.S. draft eliminates the blanket arms embargo in the previous draft and instead would bar transfers of specific equipment including tanks, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships, missiles and missile systems, armored combat vehicles and large-caliber artillery systems.

It keeps the requirement that all countries prevent the sale or transfer of luxury goods and material and technology that could help North Korea's nuclear, ballistic missile or other weapons of mass destruction-related programs.

The new draft would condemn the nuclear test, demand that North Korea immediately return to six-party talks without preconditions and impose sanctions for disregarding the council's appeal. It would also demand that North Korea "not conduct any further nuclear test or launch of a ballistic missile."

Beijing and Moscow objected to the wide scope of financial sanctions and a provision authorizing the inspection of cargo going in and out of North Korea, council diplomats said, speaking on condition of anonymity because talks are private, AP reported.

There is concern among some diplomats that boarding North Korean ships could lead to a military response from the North.

It could also be argued that the US and Japan are trying to push China into enforcing a substantial sanctions regime by demanding far more than they know that they are going to get from either China or South Korea. It is likely that both sides will meet somewhere in the middle.

It is also very interesting to note that perhaps by coincidence, all of the members of the six party talks (excepting North Korea) are in some position of influence at the Security Council right now. Along with usual veto-holders the US, Russia, and China, Japan is currently chairing the council while Korea's FM has just received the nod for the general secretariat. One good thing that may come from this incident is an increased high-level diplomatic exchange and understanding between all of the parties involved.
 

Inst

Captain
Re: North Korean H Bomb Test - A cynical view

I don't think the target is Chinese military modernization. In fact, it may be yet another ploy to cut military spending.

If China is surrounded by 6 nuclear countries, what military action could it do? It would really be a harmless goose, and what excuse would the United States have for further military upgrades?

The Panda-Slugger China Collapse School would be the only remaining Panda-Slugger school; there would be no China Threat when China is effectively "contained".

Or maybe not. Having the JSDF fight the PLA over Taiwan is not really a palatable option for China.

The thing is, my understanding of the issue is that China needs a peaceful environment. China is in a situation; where left alone, it would develop into a world power. So the best thing for China is to be left alone, instead of militarily, economically, or diplomatically attacking neighboring countries. A military for attack or defense increases your tax-rate and thus slows down your economic growth. If it could, China would downsize its military further.
 
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bd popeye

The Last Jedi
VIP Professional
Guys..please do not open another N.Korea nuke bomb test thread. Please post all you disscusin in this thread about that subject

bd popeye moderator


As for the test. I was watching the news this morning and it was reported that no radiation was detected from the blast by the US. Did it fizzle? I know the French claim it was a failure. Jeez..N.Korea lie about the test?:confused: Oh my!

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D

Deleted member 675

Guest
Popeye, apparently it's still very early and it's quite possible radiation will be detected later. That said we may never really know what happened there because it's such a closed country.
 

IDonT

Senior Member
VIP Professional
They certainly are. One favourite political game is to derail your opponent by pretending to be on his side. The idea of this is to promote the illusion of Unity, the objective is to force your opponent to be viewed as the guy that broke the consensus.

This I believe,is what we are seeing over NK, which is why China and Russia are taking the line that they are. By "supporting" tough measures they can work to ensure that nothing of any significance is achieved by the Security Council. Had they opposed such a stance they would have been accused of fostering Nuclear Proliferation and given the other factions a free hand to detemine whatever they liked. If the US and its allies now want to exceed any agreed Security Council measures, it will be they who will be painted as the wreckers of consensus.

Hope it makes sense;)

NK with nukes has upset the balance of NE Asia. You need to see the US side of things. The US has guaranteed to carry the nuclear burden for both Sk and Japan. That is instead of these two countries developing their own nukes, the US will cover them in their protective nuclear umbrella.

Enter nuclear NK....

The US cannot afford to be seen as weak in dealing with this situation. Not by China or Russia, but by both SK and Japan. The moment these two countries believe that the US will not use its nukes to safeguard their safety, they will go nuclear. A nuclear Japan and SK is not something that China wants.

China does not have a lot of political or economic leverage to stop Japan from re-arming and going nuclear. The US has...
 

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
I don't think that China has a coherent plan on North Korea. It wants to use North Korea as a tool to tie down America and try to interfere with its alliance with South Korea as well as put itself in a position to extract concessions from the US in exchange for pressure on North Korea. However, China also wants to prevent North Korea from getting the bomb because that could cause a strengthening of the US-SK alliance and a nuclear armed Japan. China wants to have its cake and eat it too, but that might not be an option.
 
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