North Korea says nuclear test successful

U.S. intelligence statement: N. Korea radioactivity detected

POSTED: 0250 GMT (1050 HKT), October 13, 2006

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- A preliminary analysis of air samples from North Korea shows "radioactive debris consistent with a North Korea nuclear test," according to a statement from the office of the top U.S. intelligence official.

The statement, from the office of Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte, was sent to Capitol Hill but not released publicly. CNN obtained it from a congressional source.

If confirmed, the nuclear weapons test that North Korea claimed it conducted on Monday would be the first of its kind since Pakistan's underground blast in 1998. (Watch information on first evidence of radioactivity -- 1:23)

Pyongyang's claim has renewed fears of a regional arms race and that North Korea might aid terrorists with nuclear materials or technology. (Full story)

The national intelligence office statement said the air samples were collected Wednesday, and analysis found debris that would be consistent with a nuclear test "in the vicinity of Punggye" on Monday.

"Additional analysis is ongoing and will be completed in a few days," the statement said.

The South Korean Defense Ministry told CNN that the United States has informed it that radioactivity has been detected.

The report is in contrast to information provided to CNN earlier Friday from two U.S. government officials with access to classified information. Those officials said that an initial air sampling over North Korea showed no indication of radioactive debris.

The White House said it had no confirmation that the North Koreans conducted a nuclear test.

"We've seen the various press reports," said National Security Council spokesman Fred Jones. "We still have no definitive statement on the event. The intelligence community continues to analyze the data."

The U.S. Air Force flew a WC-135 Constant Phoenix atmospheric collection aircraft on Tuesday to collect air samples from the region.

The intelligence community and the military will also continue to collect air samples in the region and use satellite information to try to collect radiological data that would confirm a nuclear test, officials said. But as time goes on, it will be increasingly difficult to achieve confirmation.

Officials emphasized earlier Friday that the data collected are preliminary and provide no conclusive evidence about the North Korean event.

It is possible there was no radiological data. That could be the case if: the North Koreans successfully sealed the site; it was such a small detonation and so deep underground there was no escape of nuclear debris; or the test was actually conventional explosives.

The U.N. Security Council has agreed to vote Saturday on whether to impose sanctions on North Korea over the purported nuclear test, according to John Bolton, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

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U.N. imposes stringent arms sanctions on North Korea
Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:35pm ET
By Evelyn Leopold and Michelle Nichols

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - The U.N. Security Council voted unanimously on Saturday to impose financial and weapons sanctions on North Korea for its nuclear test, which the resolution called a "clear threat to international peace and security."

The U.S.-drafted resolution allows nations to stop cargo going to and from North Korea to check for weapons of mass destruction or related supplies. It was adopted after the United States, Britain and France made some modifications to dealt with last-minute objections from Russia and China.

"Today we are sending a strong and clear message to North Korea and other would-be proliferators that there will be serious repercussions in continuing to pursue weapons of mass destruction," U.S. Ambassador John Bolton told the Security Council's 15 members.


The resolution requires all countries to prevent the sale or transfer of materials related to Pyongyang's unconventional weapons programs. And it demands nations freeze funds overseas of people or businesses connected with North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

In a concession to China, the resolution specifically excludes the use of force, but allows economic sanctions and a restriction on naval and air transport.

But by allowing cargo inspection, the document still puts an international imprimatur on the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative. This was launched in May 2003 and encourages countries to interdict weapons from North Korea, Iran and other states of concern.

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Spike said:

Full article at:

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What do you guys think? Are these sanctions going to have any effect?

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Jeff Head said:

Sadly, I believe N. Korea will blow off a lot of steam...and then continue right ahead with their development. They may even conduct another test just to show other nations, particularly the west, that they are unaffected and not intimidated.

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At a dinner in New York in September, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran looked supremely confident as he batted away the idea that other countries could be relied upon to provide him with the nuclear fuel he said he needed.
“Before stopping enrichment by others, why don’t you stop building the next generation of nuclear weapons?” he asked his American hosts. Then, smiling, he suggested that the United States just buy its nuclear fuel from Iran’s new facilities. He would sell it to Washington, he said, “with a 50 percent discount.”

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U.S. officials: N. Korea may be planning 2nd nuclear test
POSTED: 2233 GMT (0633 HKT), October 17, 2006

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- North Korea may be preparing to conduct a second nuclear test, a U.S. official with access to intelligence information said Tuesday.

The official says that activity at a second nuclear site in North Korea is looking very similar to activity seen at another site just before the October 9 nuclear test.

The official said buildings and other structures are being fabricated at this second site, possibly in an effort to hide activities from spy satellites.

"It would not be unreasonable to assume the North Koreans are planning a second test," White House press secretary Tony Snow said Tuesday.

The intelligence official said there were also reports of statements from senior North Korean military officials saying that the government intended to conduct multiple tests.

Activity was also being seen at the site of the confirmed nuclear test, the official said. It is not clear if that activity is cleanup, maintenance or just wrapping up the testing there.

Earlier, government officials in South Korea and Japan said intelligence information pointed to a possible second test.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said in Seoul, South Korea, that another test of a nuclear device would be regarded as North Korea thumbing its nose at the world.

"I think we will all regard a second test as a very belligerent answer on North Korea's part to the international community, and I think the international community will have no choice but to respond very clearly to the DPRK [North Korea] on this," Hill said as he left talks with South Korea's top nuclear envoy.

Pyongyang on Tuesday called the United Nations sanctions resolution approved after the first test a "declaration of war."

North Korea's Foreign Ministry said in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency that the country wanted "peace but is not afraid of war."

The U.N. Security Council resolution "cannot be construed otherwise than a declaration of a war against the DPRK [North Korea] because it was based on the scenario of the U.S. keen to destroy the socialist system," according to a Foreign Ministry spokesman quoted by KCNA.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Tuesday the Korean peninsula could still become a nuclear-free area.

"We have no desire to see this crisis escalate," Rice said. "In fact, it is our goal to see a de-escalation of this, despite North Korea's actions. But North Korea now needs to understand that the international community has spoken.

"The international community has said that it is unacceptable for North Korea to have a nuclear program, that denuclearization of the Korean peninsula remains the goal of the international community."

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Spike said:

Its strange that North Korea would attempt another test. They don't really have much to prove anymore, other than the fact they don't care what the world thinks, and a second test would only further tie China's hands and compromise their ability to shield North Korea from severe consequences.

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Experts on the regime do not expect it to fold quickly or easily. The exiled Hwang Jang-yop, 83, who was the chief ideologue in Pyongyang before his astonishing defection to the South in the late 1990s, says only the overthrow of Kim Jong-il could end its nuclear ambitions. Kim could also easily withstand the envisaged United Nations sanctions, he added.

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Jon Wofsthal, CSIS fellow, said in a press briefing last week it is unlikely that North Korea would sell its nuclear assets. "Countries who slave, that sacrifice, that go through the hardship of developing a nuclear weapon, don't turn over the keys to the nuclear Cadillac lightly. They (North Koreans) are powerful now, or more powerful now, because they have nuclear weapons. Why would they dilute that power?"

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GAMING NORTH KOREA’S NEXT MOVE
The regime of Kim Jong-il could have enough plutonium for seven nuclear weapons, and is actively working to weaponize them for use on its ballistic missiles, Reuters (October 26) reports a new intelligence report issued by South Korea’s defense ministry as saying. "It is estimated that (the North) has extracted up to 50kg (110 lb) of plutonium," the report, made public by lawmaker Song Young-sun but so far not confirmed by the South Korean government, reportedly says. "Seven to eight kg of plutonium is needed for one nuclear weapon.” The study also suggests that North Korea has succeeded in manufacturing nuclear weapons weighing between two and three tons, and is now attempting to reduce their weight to under one ton – suitable for delivery via ballistic missiles.
TOKYO MULLS ITS STRATEGIC OPTIONS
Mounting worries about North Korea, meanwhile, are prompting Japan to accelerate its missile defense partnership with the United States. The Agence France Presse (October 19) reports that at a recent meeting in Tokyo, newly installed Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe confirmed to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that his government is committed to “strengthen[ing] the Japan-US alliance, including on missile defense." Abe’s government, however, took pains to make clear that it is not seeking a nuclear option in response to the mounting threat from the DPRK. "The government of Japan has no position at all to consider going nuclear," Foreign Minister Taro Aso has told Rice. "There is no need to arm ourselves with nuclear weapons, either."

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Japan's nuclear power program based on reprocessed plutonium has aroused widespread suspicion that Japan is secretly planning to develop nuclear weapons. Japan's nuclear technology and ambiguous nuclear inclinations have provided a considerable nuclear potential, becoming a "paranuclear state." Japan would not have material or technological difficulties in making nuclear weapons. Japan has the raw materials, technology, and capital for developing nuclear weapons. Japan could possibly produce functional nuclear weapons in as little as a year's time. On the strength of its nuclear industry, and its stockpile of weapons-useable plutonium, Japan in some respects considers itself, and is treated by others as a virtual nuclear weapons state. ..
Japan's nuclear arsenal would quickly outpace China's. France's nuclear submarine costs just $13 billion and would be well within Japan's means. And Japan nuclear armament would encourage other Asian nations to also arm, even Taiwan.

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