North Korea says nuclear test successful

Spike

Banned Idiot
What nuclear weapons would this be? North Korea has made a nuclear test in controlled conditions. Yet they don't have a credible means of deploying a nuclear bomb, let alone the technology to make a warhead. If you were talking 5-10 years down the line (with no sanctions to stop bomb-making equipment getting in) you might be right. Today that wouldn't be a threat.

You don't need to deliver it very far when it's to be used on your own soil. In fact it doesn't have to be 'delivered' at all, just placed in a location that foreign troops will have to pass through or occupy (like a city) and then detonated. Pretty sickening, but the North Koreans have been capable of similar atrocities against their own people.

French Atomic Energy Commission says the NK bombed failed at getting a full nuclear detonation

If this is true then the only thing that the NK's have accomplished is destroy their own bargaining position, unite its previously semi-divided enemies, and strip itself of friends. I wonder what the hell they were thinking? :confused:
 
D

Deleted member 675

Guest
You don't need to deliver it very far when it's to be used on your own soil. In fact it doesn't have to be 'delivered' at all, just placed in a location that foreign troops will have to pass through or occupy (like a city) and then detonated.

1. I'm not sure they would do that.
2. I don't know much about the detection of nuclear "devices", but wouldn't something that crude be difficult to hide? Wouldn't the US pick up the radiation spikes if they were looking? If the bomb was buried deep to avoid detection it would limit the amount of damage it could inflict.
 

Baibar of Jalat

Junior Member
GreatYuran
If indeed a true weapon has been fashioned, I believe that the Chinese and South Koreans should secure their borders and allow a massive air campaign consisting of Precision strikes against key military installations followed by a Carpet campaign on all key industrial (what is left of their industry) cities.

The North Koreans have prepared for any airstrikes. Alot of Koeans weapons are buried underground. We seen the limits of purely using airstrikes in Lebonan, Serbia and to an extent Iraq(not enough ground troops to secure defeated nation)

The North Koreans have a huge stockpile of chemical weapons; tube and rocket artillary with chemical warheads would have be less controversial deterrant. The threat of launching chemical strikes on South Korean troops and civilian would i believe would force any hostile country to negotiate, it is political easier for hostile nations to deal with a non-nuclear NK then a nuclear armed one.
 

Spike

Banned Idiot
1. I'm not sure they would do that.
2. I don't know much about the detection of nuclear "devices", but wouldn't something that crude be difficult to hide? Wouldn't the US pick up the radiation spikes if they were looking? If the bomb was buried deep to avoid detection it would limit the amount of damage it could inflict.

1. There are already serious questions regarding the NK regime's rationality.
2. We don't accurately know the capabilities of the North Korean military, we can't even be sure how many working nukes they have and how advanced they are. This is all speculation anyways, the current diplomatic action is more interesting right now than any potential strategies in a second Korean war.
 

rhino123

Pencil Pusher
VIP Professional
Do you think the Japanese and South Koreans will go nuclear to counter this? Also what do you think about the Japanese removing the article that limits its military capabilities? Personally I'm in a 100% in favor of both nations going nuclear and Japan returning to a military power that can deploy outside of Japan.

Not to offend anyone and I believe that everyone has a right to their opinion on things, but I for one is 100% disagreed that Japan returning to a military power. They can deploy their force outside Japan for peace mission or humanarity missions though. Japan being a nuclear weapon armed nation? - 110% - NO!

This stem from the fact that I came from a nation that once suffered alot in Japanese occupation in WWII.

Anyway, I think this thread is not for discussing whether Japan should be a nuclear armed nation or any other thing. And one word of concern, such thread would usually end up with many parties screaming at each other and I would really recommend that such things not be bring up in future to prevent angry country bashing.

Thanks.
 

Violet Oboe

Junior Member
Speculation on NK´s level of nuclear weapons technology can only draw on a very limited reservoir of information since even US weapons designer Sig Hecker who was invited to NK nuclear sites two years ago could only confirm that they obviously mastered plutonium metallurgy and that his NK counterparts were knowledgeable professionals.

Judging from the level of India prowess achieved in their 1974 test of a 1000-1200 kg device of 6-8 kt (the Indian figure of 12 kt is somewhat patriotically inflated) NK is probably similarly advanced more than 30 years later. (Estimates of the yield of NK´s first test vary currently: the SK´s are talking about 0.8 kt but the Russian´s about 5-15 kt)

China miniaturized a ´conventional´ HEU fission bomb of 15 kt down to 500 kg device weight already in 1966 and tested the warhead successfully in a liveflight of their DF-2 IRBM later that year. Whether it is possible that Kim Jong Il´s scientists and engineers are able to produce a similar and also reliable working device (they can employ much more advanced computers and electronics today than Mao´s guys 40 years earlier!) will be a pivotal question for hundreds of analysts around the globe in these hours and days.
 

Roger604

Senior Member
First off I disagree with any talk about North Korea collapsing, especially after nuclear tests. North Korea greatly bolstered its position with these tests.

Ultimately, the problem on the penninsula is that North Korea wants to deter a US invasion, and the US is not willing to offer security assurances. The US wants to maintain the capability to stage an invasion for its own leverage and power. But with this nuclear test, North Korea could realize their ultimate goal -- getting a bargain from the US -- quite quickly.

Japan wants assurance they will not get attacked by North Korea. It has two options: a pax americana in the Northeast Asian neighborhood, or a pax sinica. Here the interests of China and the USA conflict. Overall though, the momentum is with China and it appears as though Japan may be willing to cede responsibility for dealing with North Korea to China in order to avoid an arms race (USA/Japan versus China) and increased risk of hot war.

That's the big issue -- and the fact that Abe paid visit to Zhong Nan Hai as soon as he become PM suggests Abe may be open to closer cooperation with China, S. Korea and other Asian nations.
 
D

Deleted member 675

Guest
Overall though, the momentum is with China and it appears as though Japan may be willing to cede responsibility for dealing with North Korea to China in order to avoid an arms race (USA/Japan versus China) and increased risk of hot war.

That's the big issue -- and the fact that Abe paid visit to Zhong Nan Hai as soon as he become PM suggests Abe may be open to closer cooperation with China, S. Korea and other Asian nations.

I think you're wrong in saying Japan is "moving" towards China. Japan wants to repair bridges - that doesn't mean it wants to have "Pax Sinica". Besides China has proven itself incapable of resolving the North Korean problem. Tokyo will prod China to do something, but it will back the US resolution in the UN regardless of Beijing's stance.
 

Spike

Banned Idiot
China seems a bit on edge.
Report: China cancels soldiers' leave on NK border
POSTED: 0558 GMT (1358 HKT), October 10, 2006

DANDONG, China (AP) -- China has canceled leave for its soldiers along the North Korean border and some units are conducting anti-chemical weapons drills after the North's nuclear test, a Hong Kong newspaper with close ties to Beijing reported Tuesday.

There was no traffic across a key bridge on a border river on Tuesday, a national holiday in North Korea. But it wasn't clear whether the stoppage was due to tensions over Monday's nuclear test.

There was no sign of heightened security, and reporters in this border city saw two boatloads of North Korean tourists on the river, smiling and waving to people on the Chinese shore.

Leaves were canceled for Chinese troops in Jilin province, which accounts for about 80 percent of China's border with the North, the Wen Wei Po reported. Some units were "conducting anti-chemical drills," it said, without elaborating.

The newspaper didn't say what the goal of the military moves was intended to be or give other details.

The report also said China would suspend exports to North Korea but there was no official confirmation of that.

In Dandong, the site of the main border crossing, no trucks crossed the main bridge across the Yalu River during a two-hour period on Tuesday morning.

On Monday, the day of the nuclear test, the flow of trucks across the bridge was normal, with as many as 12 vehicles on the bridge at one time.

"I am worried that they might use a nuclear weapon in case of war," said Chong Shuxiang, a shopkeeper in Dandong who sells North Korean-made tourist souvenirs.

"If that were the case, we people living in border areas would be the worst victims," he said. "I am really worried, but I don't think the war is imminent."
 

BLUEJACKET

Banned Idiot
Overall though, the momentum is with China and it appears as though Japan may be willing to cede responsibility for dealing with North Korea to China in order to avoid an arms race (USA/Japan versus China) and increased risk of hot war.
I would take it a step further: China may simple decide to take over DPRK a.k.a. North Korea- it had about the same area under control in the past. How they would do it is an open question, but it can be done. One possibility is to bribe the generals like the US did during '03 Iraq invasion.
PRC doesn't want to see the Americans on the Yalu river again, but she also has no desire for strong unified and nuclear-armed Korea. So, to keep both outcomes from happening, China may find that it would benefit more by moving south of the Yalu, getting rid of uncertainties of having the current regime there in place by replacing it with A new set of puppets, and gaining direct and free access to the Sea of Japan & raw materials. Remember the squabble over the ancient Koguryo?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spike
It is possible that SE Asia will regard Japan's militarization as a rational response to an irrational and nuclear North Korea. [/QUOTE]
and I would add S.Korea possibly going nuclear if she doesn't feel adequately covered by the US nuclear umbrella -
A group of 17 former South Korean defense ministers and war veterans last week issued a statement calling on the government to ask the U.S. military to re-deploy tactical nuclear weapons, which were removed by former President George H.W. Bush's administration in 1991 as part of arms reductions following the Cold War.
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N.Korea is very rational, in its own way.-
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As a result of the Treaties of Argun and Peking, Manchuria (and China) lost access to the Sea of Japan.
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