North Korea says nuclear test successful

Re: North Korean H Bomb Test - A cynical view

Guys I have to admit that I am quite disgusted by your arrogant comments!

In the old days when China went nuclear in 1964 the same ignorant jibberish was thrown around in the west and US president Lyndon B. Johnson described China´s strategic breakthrough as ´a tragedy for the chinese people`. In hindsight Johnson´s remarks on Mao Ze Dong´s nuke strategy can only be described as pure idiocy and in two or three decades the assessments of Kim Jong Il´s nuclear policy will likely have changed in a similar way.

Back in the 80´s there was much anxiety about Pakistan´s ´islamic´ bomb (islamic only in the way who was paying the bills i.e. Saudi Arabia and the notorious BCCI bank!). Today Pakistan is an accepted member of the US-led anti-terror alliance and may be tomorrow like India a legitimate member of the nuclear club.

North Korea probably will not accomodate with the US in the next years but expect that Pyongyang will deepen her relationship with China and Russia and as US global influence (politics, economy, military, culture) will discernibly wane in the coming decades Kim and his successor will eventually establish North Korea as a stable nuclear power. Obviously Kim Jong Il knows the fact that eventually the power of the positively given inevitably prevails!

P.S.
Shooting a couple (hundreds would make essentially no difference) of cruise missiles on NK will be of absolutely no effect on Kim´s mostly deeply buried subterranean military infrastructure, the US blinked first back in 1994 as NK had only 3-6 primitive nukes and there is no way that they would attack NK in 06 since the risk would be profoundly higher than 12 years ago.

Re: North Korean H Bomb Test - A cynical view

Violet Oboe-I disagree. I think that the US would attack NK. The Bush Administration is not above blowing up another poor country to raise its poll numbers. Besides, that would send a powerful message to Iran. The US would prefer to try to scare and bluff Iran by an attack on North Korea because North Korea is in less of a position to retaliate than Iran is. This is true because North Korea's only real retaliation option is an attack on South Korea which would result in the end of the Kim reigeme and because North Korea will only go ahead with retaliation if China permits it (which it will probably not because it does not want to lose its "dog" as Sampan describes it or start a major reigonal war which could push SK further into the arms of the US and re-militarize Japan) whereas Iran does not have a foreign master and is in a position to hurt the US in Iraq and cut off the flow of oil.

I also believe that any "reigonal arms race" would not be in China's interest. Japan and the US are a generation ahead of China in weapons development, and although China is closing the gap, the US and Japan could widen it quite a bit very quickly if the US decided to approve a few cheap arms packages for Taiwan and Japan similarly approved a large spending package, maybe with a DDX design . Basically my point is that if there was an "arms race" the US and Japan could quickly negate many recent Chinese military improvements.

Re: North Korean H Bomb Test - A cynical view



Great letter on Asia Times.

:roll:

Re: North Korean H Bomb Test - A cynical view

An attack on NK after a successful nuclear test campaign is almost inconceivable even for George W. Bush standards. North Korea will hit targets in Japan if the US tries to destroy the regime and the result will be a worldwide economic depression like in the 30 ´s.

Currently the US administration has obviously not the stomach to confront Iran earnestly (just ask wobbly Condi!) and (as I mentioned in my previous posts) a conventional strike would not remove NK ´s nuclear arsenal and would also leave the bulk of NK´s subterranean military structure intact. Supposing that a military option really exists: Why has the US not already bombed Pyongyang? Well, the answer is very simple, it is called deterrence at work. Of course could the US military destroy NK thoroughly (albeit effectively only with nukes!) but the price the US would have to pay would be monstrous.

NK has very little to loose, it is simply a small, poor but nuclear armed (around 15 nukes meanwhile) country that would execute what the Israelis call the ´Samson option´ if viciously attacked by the US. The US would have to bear in mind that the suffering millions in what would remain of Korea, Japan and probably parts of China would direct their savage hatred against the aggressor nation which will be perceived as responsible for the most cruel war since WW 2. The result could be terrorism of a scale never even imagined today, bin Laden would certainly pale in comparison.

Correspondingly an attack on NK is very unlikely indeed but a strike on Iran remains a distinct option (strike probability around 40-60 I would currently guess) until the Bush jun. administration leaves office on 1/20/09.

Re: North Korean H Bomb Test - A cynical view

Now do you want to be really cynical ?

If you are a Politican, you soon realise that background circumstances can greatly increase or decrease and importance and impact of the very same words or actions.

Therefore, my prediction is this.

North Korea will proceed with its Nucleur Test

A lot of people in the region will be very upset.

Bingo, suddenly President Hu and Mr Kim appear with a possible solution and everybody gratefully signs up to it.

President Hu is the hero of the hour and people even inquire if he is available to assist with the Iranian matter:roll:

Needless to say Hu and Kim could produce this tomorrow (or years ago), but for every public announcement you generally need something that can make a banging noise to get peoples attention. Ususally a gong or a gavel will do the job, but sometimes a rather bigger bang somehow seems more satisfying:china:

Re: North Korean H Bomb Test - A cynical view

SampanViking said:

Now do you want to be really cynical ?

If you are a Politican, you soon realise that background circumstances can greatly increase or decrease and importance and impact of the very same words or actions.

Therefore, my prediction is this.

North Korea will proceed with its Nucleur Test

A lot of people in the region will be very upset.

Bingo, suddenly President Hu and Mr Kim appear with a possible solution and everybody gratefully signs up to it.

President Hu is the hero of the hour and people even inquire if he is available to assist with the Iranian matter:roll:

Needless to say Hu and Kim could produce this tomorrow (or years ago), but for every public announcement you generally need something that can make a banging noise to get peoples attention. Ususally a gong or a gavel will do the job, but sometimes a rather bigger bang somehow seems more satisfying:china:

Click to expand...

What are you saying, that China has hedged its bet in this whole nuclear confrontation to increase its prestige and influence?

If you are, I would agree. China could probably have gotten North Korea to end its nuclear ambitions very easily back in their early stages. However, it prefered to let Pyongyang pluck the eagle's feathers and make America come ask China for favors. China is hoping that America will give it a big concession in return for truly putting pressure on North Korea (perhaps a tacit admission to back of the human rights issue). Allowing the nuclear issue to go unresolved for so long is just China's way of rasing the price for the Americans. But China is playing a dangerous game. It could end up pushing South Korea into a deeper alliance with America, and if America decides to attack, China would feel the economic consequences and have to absorb a lot of refugees.

I don't know if that is what the Chinese leadership is really thinking, but its an idea and I bet it factors into their thinking.

Re: North Korean H Bomb Test - A cynical view

This is some extreme nuclear brinkmanship you guys are suggesting that China is playing. Right now China's main priority is economic development and technological improvement, not world war 3. :coffee:

Report: NK may have performed nuclear test
POSTED: 11:00 p.m. EDT, October 8, 2006

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- South Korean government officials said North Korea performed its first nuclear weapons test Monday, the South's Yonhap news agency reported

North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported the country has performed a successful nuclear test.

According to KCNA, there was no radioactive leakage from the site.

South Korean officials could not immediately confirm the Yonhap report.

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun convened an urgent meeting of security advisers over the issue, Yonhap reported.

The North said last week it would conduct a nuclear test as part of its deterrent against a possible U.S. invasion.

Click to expand...

Re: Report: NK may have performed nuclear test

Report: N. Korea appears to conduct nuke test
South Korean official says nuclear test appears to have happened

BREAKING NEWS
Updated: 10:56 p.m. ET Oct. 8, 2006

SEOUL, South Korea - South Korean government officials said North Korea performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test Monday, the South’s Yonhap news agency reported.

South Korean officials could not immediately confirm the report.

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun convened an urgent meeting of security advisers over the issue, Yonhap reported.

The North said last week it would conduct a nuclear test as part of its deterrent against a possible U.S. invasion.

Click to expand...

Re: Report: NK may have performed nuclear test

North Korea says nuclear test successful

2 minutes ago

SEOUL, South Korea -
North Korea said Monday it has performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test. The country's official Korean Central News Agency said the test was performed successfully and there was no radioactive leakage from the site.
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"The nuclear test is a historic event that brought happiness to the our military and people," KCNA said.

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