antiterror13
Brigadier
I still enjoy this video even 1 month old ... really spot on, the most polite way saying you (UK) is nothing
Again, I chose to extrapolate as a proportion of 1.4 billion to maximize confidence interval and prove a point. If you want to get into the nitty-gritty, look at ZeEa5KPul's post that I was responding to. Ask yourself this: what is China's east coast population, what is their average income, do they as China's most prosperous region, earn as much as the average American?
Anybody live in the US and willing to supply some numbers so we can crunch this out? Also, consider that cost of living varies drastically between urban centres and rural regions. California is not a good representation of the US in its entirety. Likewise, Shanghai is super expensive compared to the rest of China.
average wages China: 90,501 RMB (2019) or ~$13000 USD
average wages after average tax China, Shanghai: 75000 RMB or ~$10000 USD
average wages US: $40000 USD (2019)
average wages after average tax US, California: ~$33000
Then take into account differences in rent, mandatory car/gas payments vs. the option of affordable and fast public transit, the cost of everything from food to health insurance, etc and it's more even than you'd expect.
How about Huston, Texas, large city, not extremely expensive. Any Texans?Anybody live in the US and willing to supply some numbers so we can crunch this out? Also, consider that cost of living varies drastically between urban centres and rural regions. California is not a good representation of the US in its entirety. Likewise, Shanghai is super expensive compared to the rest of China.
I'm pretty sure Texas is not a city. It's like a whole bunch of cities. And towns. And whatever the Americans call 'em. Not 100% sure though.How about Texas, large city, not extremely expensive. Any Texans?
Sorry meant Huston, edited.I'm pretty sure Texas is not a city. It's like a whole bunch of cities. And towns. And whatever the Americans call 'em. Not 100% sure though.
I just realised that I tagged the wrong person. It was supposed to be @Biscuits and not @ZeEa5KPul. Apologies for any offense and confusion.I did so to deliberately steel-man @ZeEa5KPul's argument
I hate to break it to you but median disposable income is still significantly higher in the US, even after accounting for PPP. Unfortunately, as long as the USD holds reserve status and is propped up by fiat, their export of currency will likely keep their economy in the black for decades to come. Demand for worthless pieces of paper is still quite resilient. As for safety and satisfaction, that only matters if Americans can emigrate, something that the government is cracking down hard on.
I agree that China does not need to match US income on a per capita basis. However, take a look at this:
View attachment 121200
From Table 1, we can see that the top 16.3% (only 228 million people at most) of Chinese families earn more than USD $4800/yr. Meanwhile for Americans, the median family income was USD $68,000/year. The difference is greater than an order of magnitude. CNY PPP multiplier is 4.208 btw.
Largely irrelevant. EV sales only accounted for 6% of new car sales in 2022. The market share is growing but ultimately miniscule as of current figures. Unless you can prove that China's PPP multiplier is >15, the fact on the ground is that middle class Americans are wealthier than upper class Chinese.
Anybody live in the US and willing to supply some numbers so we can crunch this out? Also, consider that cost of living varies drastically between urban centres and rural regions. California is not a good representation of the US in its entirety. Likewise, Shanghai is super expensive compared to the rest of China.
Trade wars are bad for anyone. Bad for Chine of course. But for Europe, its trade war + energy inflation + deindustrialization + economic depression + social unrest. That's actually fatal.Trade wars can be bad for Europe but its also bad for China as well. Especially now, When China is no longer contract manufacturer but active brand builder.
Wrong. While the champion brands of China will be among the biggest engines for future growth, they are not the only one. China's economy is much more diverse than that. Nevertheless, the big Chinese brands are making huge inroads in the West today, despite the tariffs and the bad press that they are getting.Chinese brands will be the primary driver of China's future growth. So, Chinese branded Cars, Tvs, Computers, Phones, Apps such as Tiktok and Temu. These Chinese branded products will have much bigger profit if they have access to US, EU and other western allied markets.
But the way the new cold war is going, I feel the west will never allow Chinese branded products to have market share in the west. Just like how they killed Huawei's market access in the west, they will ban all Chinese branded products with the accusation of Spying, hacking and whatever excuse they can find.
Where did you learn your economics? Nominal GDP is not what buying power is based on, that's GDP by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)! Cost of living is much higher in the West than in China. $100 goes much further in China than the West. $100 could be spent on a meal in the West and that transaction is counted in the Nominal GDP. $100 in China could buy a couple of meals, groceries, and transport fees. Those transactions, counted for Nominal GDP is gonna be smaller. But for GDP PPP, its gonna be higher. Inflated price tags distorts the true value of the economy. If you wanna talk about economics, you should have known these things.The west has 55 billion in nominal GDP which is more than 50% of world nominal GDP. This is the biggest buying power. So, if Chinese brands are forced to just rely on Chinese market and the global south, then they will survive ofcourse but they will not have all the revenues and profits they could get. This will in turn slow down China's GDP growth rate. Over the long term, having two different tech ecosystem of China and the West is not good for China's future wealth and prosperity.
NEVER! China will NEVER KOWTOW to anyone, especially not the West. No aspiring major power should ever kowtow to the West. Japan did it, and their miracle story is over. South Korea did it, and their decline have started to manifest. Russia did it, and was nearly destroyed. If China had kowtowed to the West, the West will impoverish China and break it apart. Anyone suggesting China to kowtow to the West for its own benefit is either a white supremacist, or a moron. Never ask any nation to kowtow to the West, it is arrogant, and disrespectful.So, right now China will do anything, even kowtow if they have to stop US and EU from sanctioning Chinese branded products and apps. That's why you see Tiktok bending the knee just to maintain market access.
What era are you living in? The 1990s or the 2000s? Yeah, the US and Europe attacked China. Not because they are rich, but because they are arrogant pr**ks. Still, China didn't become poor again. Its economy is still growing at a healthy pace. Where are we seeing ghettos and tent cities in the urban centers? Where are we seeing fentanyl crises? Where are we seeing widespread personal insolvencies? Where are we witnessing rampant criminal activities? These are signs of a sick economy.Europe and US are already rich and can afford to attack China. But China is still poor and wants to be rich. So, it has no choice but to make concessions just to have the opportunity to become rich. Thats why China was forced to do the trade deal with Trump. They essentially bent the knee because they were in a weaker position.
Do not mistaken China's goodwill as weakness. China desires Western business, but it won't beg for it. If the West wanna cut off, it won't be good for China, but China is prepared to adapt. In any case, China can produce practically all essential items that it needs. What it can't produce, China will work it out eventually. The US have cut China out off the ISS. China then built its own space station. If there is any nation who can adapt, China is on the top of the list today.China will have to play a very delicate diplomatic game so that US and Europe do not become too hostile to ban everything Chinese. And this is what they are doing. When US attacks with sanctions and bans, China does not retaliate proportionally. They do a symbolic retaliation but keep asking for peace and for a deal. This is how they want to reduce US and western animosity towards China and continue to gain wealth.
This is China's biggest long term crisis, How to keep US and EU market for Chinese products over the long term.
So far I think its hopeless. The trend is extremely negative.