Miscellaneous News

(Assistant Secretary for Energy Resources Geoffrey Pyatt)

“But the other aspect of this is what we are doing systematically to reduce Russia's future energy revenue. Just last week, for instance, we leveled new sanctions against a project in the Arctic, Arctic LNG 2, which is Novatech's flagship LNG project, which Novatech set in motion with the aspiration of developing Russia as the largest LNG exporter in the world. Our objective is to kill that project. And we're doing that through our sanctions working with our partners in the G7 and beyond.

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“I think the other aspect of this, and it goes back to Senator Shaheen’s point about the Black Sea, is how we work with the countries that have historically depended on Russia and on Russian energy and have been paying into the Kremlin's resources. We have done that quite successfully in Europe. We need to keep focusing on the on the Asian front. We do that through the price cap coalition.

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FriedButter said:

They aren’t even hiding it anymore. Outright said they want to kill the Arctic LNG 2 project to stop Russia from exporting LNG. Then he talks about how they were successful in taking Europe off energy dependence from Russ- I mean Indian energy. Now he is saying they want to do the same thing in Asia. No doubt that includes China.

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tamsen_ikard said:

Trade wars can be bad for Europe but its also bad for China as well. Especially now, When China is no longer contract manufacturer but active brand builder.

Chinese brands will be the primary driver of China's future growth. So, Chinese branded Cars, Tvs, Computers, Phones, Apps such as Tiktok and Temu. These Chinese branded products will have much bigger profit if they have access to US, EU and other western allied markets.

But the way the new cold war is going, I feel the west will never allow Chinese branded products to have market share in the west. Just like how they killed Huawei's market access in the west, they will ban all Chinese branded products with the accusation of Spying, hacking and whatever excuse they can find.


The west has 55 billion in nominal GDP which is more than 50% of world nominal GDP. This is the biggest buying power. So, if Chinese brands are forced to just rely on Chinese market and the global south, then they will survive ofcourse but they will not have all the revenues and profits they could get. This will in turn slow down China's GDP growth rate. Over the long term, having two different tech ecosystem of China and the West is not good for China's future wealth and prosperity.

So, right now China will do anything, even kowtow if they have to stop US and EU from sanctioning Chinese branded products and apps. That's why you see Tiktok bending the knee just to maintain market access.

Europe and US are already rich and can afford to attack China. But China is still poor and wants to be rich. So, it has no choice but to make concessions just to have the opportunity to become rich. Thats why China was forced to do the trade deal with Trump. They essentially bent the knee because they were in a weaker position.

China will have to play a very delicate diplomatic game so that US and Europe do not become too hostile to ban everything Chinese. And this is what they are doing. When US attacks with sanctions and bans, China does not retaliate proportionally. They do a symbolic retaliation but keep asking for peace and for a deal. This is how they want to reduce US and western animosity towards China and continue to gain wealth.

This is China's biggest long term crisis, How to keep US and EU market for Chinese products over the long term.

So far I think its hopeless. The trend is extremely negative.

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FriedButter said:

They aren’t even hiding it anymore. Outright said they want to kill the Arctic LNG 2 project to stop Russia from exporting LNG. Then he talks about how they were successful in taking Europe off energy dependence from Russ- I mean Indian energy. Now he is saying they want to do the same thing in Asia. No doubt that includes China.

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ZeEa5KPul said:

It's not that simple and I'm surprised you would make such a naïve comparison. What are healthcare costs vs. outcomes in the US and China? What are the respective levels of home ownership? What's the size of the parasitic FIRE sector relative to the industrial economy in each country? Where is the greater public safety? Levels of satisfaction in government?

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Biscuits said:

China is not likely to get the same per capita income as US in a long time. But thinking China needs the same income in order to dominate US is also deluded. US has 330 million people. If even 330 million inside China has the same income as the other 330 million US (and they do), they will already have signficant edge in terms of national power.

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ZeEa5KPul said:

It's deeper than that. "Per capita income" doesn't mean the same thing in both places, and I don't think PPP adjustment adequately captures the difference. A Chinese buyer can purchase a first-rate EV for less than $40,000 (and with lower interest payments on a loan) that is either unavailable in America or if something comparable is, it's north of $100,000.

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GZDRefugee said:

I hate to break it to you but median disposable income is still significantly higher in the US, even after accounting for PPP. Unfortunately, as long as the USD holds reserve status and is propped up by fiat, their export of currency will likely to keep their economy in the black for decades to come. Demand for worthless pieces of paper is still quite resilient. As for safety and satisfaction, that only matters if Americans can emigrate, something that the government is cracking down hard on.

I agree that China does not need to match US income on a per capita basis. However, take a look at this:

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View attachment 121200
From Table 1, we can see that the top 16.3% (only 228 million people at most) of Chinese families earn more than USD$4800/yr. Meanwhile for Americans, the median family income was USD$74,000/year. The difference is greater than an order of magnitude. CNY PPP multiplier is 4.022 btw.

Largely irrelevant. EV sales only accounted for 6% of new car sales in 2022. The market share is growing but ultimately miniscule as of current figures. Unless you can prove that China's PPP multiplier is >15, the fact on the ground is that middle class Americans are wealthier than upper class Chinese.

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azn_cyniq said:

Is that true? According to this table from the article you posted, half of China's adults earned at least 35,029 CNY/year (roughly 5,000 USD/year) in 2015. I'm sure that number is higher in 2023

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According to this article, the average Chinese worker earned 16,153 USD/year in 2021.

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GZDRefugee said:

I'm looking at the bottom 50% row. If 50% of Chinese earn less than that, then it would be the median. The threshold for that is ¥17,645/yr, which is ~¥1,470/mth. Comparing that to the table I posted, it would fall in the 1100-1500 bin. The cumulative proportion up to that income bracket is 56.52% in 2019. So it would indeed pass the smell test.

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azn_cyniq said:

The threshold is actually 35,029 CNY/year. 17,645 CNY/year is the average income of the bottom 50%. I think the table you posted may be referring to disposable income. That would make more sense.

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