Effectiveness of China's Air Defence?

Hendrik_2000 · Apr 2, 2011

To address the first paragraph I will address the second. We are not investing an infinite amount of capital. We can however, invest a finite amount of capital. Several billions of dollars, if invested properly, can turn South and Central American countries into manufacturing workhorses. More jobs means less unemployment, more stability, so two and two together.

Let us be realistic shall we instead of dreaming pie in the sky. Latin America has been independent about the same time as United states. Argentinia and Brazil were some of the richest countires before the WWII. Having the same European immigrant stock as US. Yet through poor goverment enamored by socialism they ruined the country. It take a lot more than just money to develop the country. Having an efficient goverment with clear vision and ruthlessness to carry it forward, is one of the preequisite. Enterpreuner spirit and work ethic in the larger population is another requirement. It is no wonder or coincidence that the new emerging economic power are all in Asia

And yes really. We Americans will do anything as long as it earns a buck, the only thing stopping that are Labor laws. I don't mind working at $1 and hour, or less.

I doubt that will be the case Would American slave in factory to produce shirt for $2/hour?. The manufacturing that gone overseas will never come back

That is correct, I am arguing potentials. But as you know, a developed source is easier to access than an undeveloped source. We will most likely suck China dry of materials and then move onto other sources, with materials meaning natural or labor sources.

Again false. China and India have huge labor markets because of their obvious population advantages over other nations. Since we've invested in China for so long, they've been able to develop a competent Manufacturing center, thus making them the easiest to access for material. However, with the population of South/Central America sky rocketing, they are the logical choice to replace China as manufacturing workhorses, as I said, all that is needed is capital and wise investments

.

This is nothing but self delusion on the western press and population at large. China is still on the embargo list until today. They are not helping China. As I remember it after 1989 The whole western world and Japan stop investing in China as a form of protest.

Back then there is no capital or skill to developed Export Economy. Then DXP went to South East Asia to see for himself what a Chinese society can achieve given certain freedom to enrich themselves free of goverment interference. He start the reform

Until today the single largest investor in China is not Western companies but overseas Chinese a nebulous grouping coming form Hongkong Taiwan Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Phillipine. They are together with Chineses masses are the unsung hero of Chinese reform. Their capital;enterpreuner spirit, market savy,hard work, international connection provide China the rope to learn about export economy.

Then Japan and Korea seeing their market in low end product slowly disappearing discovered that they were beaten by the overseas chinese. They have no other way but to join in and start investing in China. From then on the flood gate is op

BTW the export to US is only 15% of total export and decreasing with every year. If there is total embargo on Chinese product the cost of living in US will hit sky high . Now that China doesn't have excess dollar no need to sterilized it by buyinng Treasury note Then the cost of borrowing will hit the roof Yup bankruptcy and depression will follow The US and China are twin conjoined by the hip let face it

That is false. You do not need to know the missile's path because the IIR warhead on the SM-3 is able to maneuver itself automatically to intercept. All that's needed before hand is the general area of the missile, which is, like I said, easy because the missile will have to follow a very logical path to the target at it's endgame, after all the intermittent maneuvers has been accomplished.

IIR is again susceptible to decoy but even if it true detection doesn't mean the kill vehicle can hit the target. The rule of Thumb is for the kill vehicle to have 2 or 3 time the speed of missile. It one thing for IIR to kill plane or slower cruise missile, It is another thing to kill IRBM on the terminal phase , Even worse by having flatter trajectory they can increase the reentry speed. Better still never going into stratosphere stay in the atmosphere all the time

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The SM-3 kill vehicle is designed to hit the target at a relatively low closing speed of about four to five kilometers per second and to acquire and home in on targets at ranges of less than 150 kilometers. At this range, the objects in the search volume look like points of light to the infrared sensor on the kill vehicle, so it is not possible for the kill vehicle to obtain information about the shape or size of different objects ahead of it. These substantial limits on what the SM-3 kill vehicle can see makes distinguishing the warhead from other objects a considerable challenge.

The effects of these challenges can be clearly seen in SM-3 intercept test data made public by the Defense Department.[4] In eight or nine of the 10 SM-3 intercept tests from 2002 to 2009 involving these relatively slow closing speeds, the SM-3 kill vehicle failed to hit the warhead target directly. This means that, in real combat, the warhead would have not been destroyed but would have continued toward the target and detonated in eight or nine of the 10 SM-3 experimental tests.[5] Yet, the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has reported these 10 tests as “successful” without explaining that the test outcomes would not have resulted in true combat intercepts.[6]

Engineer · Apr 2, 2011

IronsightSniper said:
To address the first paragraph I will address the second. We are not investing an infinite amount of capital. We can however, invest a finite amount of capital. Several billions of dollars, if invested properly, can turn South and Central American countries into manufacturing workhorses. More jobs means less unemployment, more stability, so two and two together.

There are a whole lot of ifs: if huge sums of money comes from no where, if all these money is invested properly, if said countries actually have a responsible government, if there is no corruption, if everything goes according to your fantasy... oh wait, it is nothing but your pure fantasy.

You are expecting that by throwing money at problems, competitors to China will appear immediately -- this will simply NOT happen.

IronsightSniper said:
And yes really. We Americans will do anything as long as it earns a buck, the only thing stopping that are Labor laws. I don't mind working at $1 and hour, or less.

Well, good for you, but you do not represent Americans.

Concerns with illegal immigrants in the US show that Americans are not willing to do shitty jobs with crappy wages. Otherwise, Americans would be willing to undercut the illegal immigrants in wages, and there wouldn't be complaints about illegal immigrants taking away jobs in the first place.

Also, fundamental economics would indicate that people simply won't work at $1 an hour in the US because they can't pay for their living expense that way. So this is "Americans will do anything as long as it earns a buck" is nothing but another one of your fantasies.

IronsightSniper said:
That is correct, I am arguing potentials...

Potentials are not current capabilities, thus are irrelevant. The West can't survive without China, today. This is one reason why the West isn't boycotting China goods.

IronsightSniper said:
That is false. You do not need to know the missile's path because the IIR warhead on the SM-3 is able to maneuver itself automatically to intercept. All that's needed before hand is the general area of the missile, which is, like I said, easy because the missile will have to follow a very logical path to the target at it's endgame, after all the intermittent maneuvers has been accomplished.

Although you are right that a KV can maneuver, you are wrong in claiming that general location of the missile is all that's necessary for interception to occur. You are doing no different than arguing that the Earth is flat right now. You must predict the trajectory of the missile to find the interception point. This is a fact.

IronsightSniper said:
Nope. High Powered Optics can view objects in a few mm of resolution even from Geosynchronous orbit. It will be however, more costly.

Nope. This is in the realm of science fiction.

IronsightSniper said:
Where would be some good literature to read about Chinese EW then?

You have to look at the stuffs they are putting out: ground units, airborne platforms, pods that are currently in-service and from airshows.

solarz · Apr 2, 2011

IronsightSniper said:
False. That is nothing some capital cannot fix. China is only so powerful in manufacturing thanks to the capital it has, and how they invested it. Mexico, Brazil, Columbia, etc, can have similar infrastructure for manufacturing compared to China. Western Countries can survive without China, the question is, if China can survive without Western countries.

I'd just like to comment on this. If we strip away all the noise made by economists, the US-China economic relationship boils down to this:

- The US gets cheap manufactured goods from China, which directly translates into a higher standard of living.

- China gets money from their exports, which the government then invests into infrastructure.

If a China-US split occurs, the US will lose access to cheap goods, resulting in massive inflation. Sure, other countries can fill the niche, but Indian can't re-train its call-center reps into Nike shoe makers overnight, and Vietnam can't expand its operations 100-fold in a few months!

On the other hand, the infrastructure China built will still be there. The highways, high-speed-rails, the Three-Gorge Dam, they're all still going to be there.

IronsightSniper · Apr 3, 2011

Engineer said:
There are a whole lot of ifs: if huge sums of money comes from no where, if all these money is invested properly, if said countries actually have a responsible government, if there is no corruption, if everything goes according to your fantasy... oh wait, it is nothing but your pure fantasy.

You are expecting that by throwing money at problems, competitors to China will appear immediately -- this will simply NOT happen.

Can you not red? I said throw money, invest wisely.

Well, good for you, but you do not represent Americans.

Who really does? From the people I've talked to, we don't mind.

Concerns with illegal immigrants in the US show that Americans are not willing to do shitty jobs with crappy wages. Otherwise, Americans would be willing to undercut the illegal immigrants in wages, and there wouldn't be complaints about illegal immigrants taking away jobs in the first place.

Also, fundamental economics would indicate that people simply won't work at $1 an hour in the US because they can't pay for their living expense that way. So this is "Americans will do anything as long as it earns a buck" is nothing but another one of your fantasies.

But that's only because we're not at war with China. The moment war starts, Americans will revert back to a WW2-esque thought pattern, save money, work hard.

Potentials are not current capabilities, thus are irrelevant. The West can't survive without China, today. This is one reason why the West isn't boycotting China goods.

Current capabilities are irrelevant as we are talking about the future. China cannot survive without the west, and without quoting again, you need money to maintain infrastructure, money China will run out of without the West.

Although you are right that a KV can maneuver, you are wrong in claiming that general location of the missile is all that's necessary for interception to occur. You are doing no different than arguing that the Earth is flat right now. You must predict the trajectory of the missile to find the interception point. This is a fact.

Can you stop ignoring my point? The Missile HAS to follow a logical path in it's endgame to detect the target. If it can see the target, the target can see the missile, THEREFORE, the general area of the missile is known, and a ABM can be launched, it's KV can separate, maneuver, and kill.

Nope. This is in the realm of science fiction.

...It's reality.

You have to look at the stuffs they are putting out: ground units, airborne platforms, pods that are currently in-service and from airshows.

So no real literature, pure conjecture?

Hendrik_2000 said:
Let us be realistic shall we instead of dreaming pie in the sky. Latin America has been independent about the same time as United states. Argentinia and Brazil were the some of the richest countires before the WWII. Having the same European immigrant stock as US. Yet through poor goverment enamored by socialism they ruined the country. It take a lot more than just money to develop the country. Having an efficient goverment with clear vision and ruthlessness to carry it forward, is one of the preequisite. Enterpreuner spirit and work ethic in the larger population is another requirement. It is no wonder that coincidence that the new emerging economic power are all in Asia

Who's to say that turning them into workhorses is impossible? As unlikely as a Sino-American split is to occur, it is indeed VERY likely we'll turn to the labor markets down there to fill the gap. It won't be perfect, but they can do the gist of what China can. You don't need much to produce t-shirts and plastic toys.

I doubt that will be the case Would American slave in factory to produce shirt for $2/hour?. The manufacturing that is gone overseas will never come back

It, by definition, is not slavery.

BTW the export to US is only 15% of total export and decreasing with every year. If there is total embargo on Chinese product the cost of living in US will hit sky high . Now that China doesn't have excess dollar no need to sterilized it by buyinng Treasury note Then the cost of borrowing will hit the roof Yup bankruptcy and depression will follow The US and China are twin conjoined by the hip let face it

What are you talking about? Like I said, that "cost of living" will only rise temporarily. China doesn't produce too much that is difficult to produce elsewhere.

IIR is again susceptible to decoy but even if it true detection doesn't mean the kill vehicle can hit the target. The rule of Thumb is for the kill vehicle to have 2 or 3 time the speed of missile. It one thing for IIR to kill plane or slower cruise missile, It is another thing to kill IRBM on the terminal phase , Even worse by having flatter trajectory they can increase the reentry speed. Better still never going into stratosphere stay in the atmosphere all the time

That's why there are MKV (although canceled). Decoys are ancient.

no_name · Apr 3, 2011

IronsightSniper said:
Who's to say that turning them into workhorses is impossible? As unlikely as a Sino-American split is to occur, it is indeed VERY likely we'll turn to the labor markets down there to fill the gap. It won't be perfect, but they can do the gist of what China can. You don't need much to produce t-shirts and plastic toys.

This is going off-topic but:

Think about it this way, do you think western companies can move 'down there' faster than chinese can?
Why do you think the chinese companies are already doing deals (and in alot of places putting in infrastructure) in africa, south america, south east asia? There are pretty far-ended reasons for this.

bladerunner · Apr 3, 2011

It doesnt matter if the Chinese get a head start, sooner or later the poor quality of chinese made products they tend to foist on these developing countries will need replacing.( The "Economist" is a good place to read about these complaints) oh wait maybe its too biased.

Meanwhile a South America devoid of Chinese commercial interests would no doubt cause some heartburn amongst the Chinese strategists/economists.

Hendrik_2000 · Apr 3, 2011

I will voluntarily end this discussion with this picture . As they say picture worth thousand words

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Both the GMD and SM-3 systems are highly susceptible to massive confusion that leads to
complete performance breakdowns when they encounter objects that have characteristics that are
unexpected. These unexpected characteristics could include warheads that look different from
what is expected, and/or objects that look somewhat like warheads. Even when it was known
that false signals could be created by fragments from a chuffing rocket motor, the failure to
prepare for it led to the catastrophic failure of the FTG-06 scene recognition program. This
unintentional countermeasure that caused the failure of the FTG-06 can be easily replicated in
combat by intelligent and resourceful adversaries, and requires technology that is far less
complex than the technology needed to build and operate ballistic missiles.
Infrared and radar data from MIT Lincoln Laboratory, a Department of Defense Federally
Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), shows that it will not be difficult for
adversaries to create objects that will confront the scene matching process with targets that can
easily be mistaken for warheads. The same MIT Lincoln Laboratory data shows that the SM-3
Block IA kill vehicle, which cannot measure the temperature of objects it observes, will be
entirely inadequate if it encounters objects that are small and hot that produce infrared intensities
comparable to those from warheads.

airsuperiority · Apr 3, 2011

vesicles said:
About the no-fly zone or blockade, these things can only be achieved AFTER air and sea supremacy is achieved. So don't assume China can be blocked when its navy and air force are in its full strength.

Also, China has been self-reliant for the most part of its history, thanks to its large size and different terrain and various kinds of resources. Like the US without trading with China, China will suffer from a potential blockade, but it won't die. It can manufacture anything and everything you can think of in the world, as it IS the manufacturing center in the world. So China won't need to import anything. China survived without trading with anyone else for almost 500 years. The latest isolation was from 50's to early 80's. China suffered tremendously, but it survived. Of course, there is oil. Also like the US, which has oil on its own soil but decides not to extract, China also has oil deposit in Tibet/Xinjiang and Northeast. This is why China wants to hold on to Tibet and Xinjiang that much. It is true that the oil deposit in these areas is not that much and cannot be compared to what the Mid East has, but no blockade can last more than a few years. China definitely has enough to last that long.

Again, the same strategies used against small nations are useless or less effective against a large country like China, the US or Russia. A good example is WWII, Nazi Germany had no problem finishing off smaller countries. however, once they started fighting the Soviets, they could not defeat them even though they were winning battles after battles and destroying Soviet armies at the beginning. Some might say it's the infamous Russian winter that ultimately defeated the Germans. Well, that's what happens when you fight a large nation. They typically have many different terrains and weathers and each of them needs to be dealt with using different strategy. If you slip on one of them, you will be defeated.

A small nation has less ability to absorb the blow, while a large nation can absorb the blow and at the same time absorb the resources of attackers and simply out-last their attackers.

Also, winning a war is much more than the technology. You simply cannot predict that a force can win a war because it has advanced technology. Yes, technology is absolutely important, but it's not everything. Korean War and Vietnam War are two good examples of a more technologically advanced force cannot win a war against an inferior enemy. The reason for this can be complicated, but each time the opponent came up with strategies to counter the technology. In these cases, the gap between the US and its opponent is so much wider than the current gap between the US and China. And this gap will become even smaller in the future. As the technological gap gets smaller, the technology becomes less of a factor while strategies, tactics, politics and social factors become more influential.

Also, I've noted a trend with how some posters claim how the US offense can penetrate China's defense and how China's offense won't even scratch the US' defense. Well, sometimes, you have to think about IF China's defense is actually that defenseless and China's offense is actually without a punch. One good example, China's air bases. As I have learned from some of our fellow posters, many of China's bases are super-hardened while none of the US bases in the area are. That would mean it's much easier for China to cause damage to the US bases than the opposite. Also, some claim that even China can damage US bases, it can be easily fixed. The same can also be said of China's bases. These bases can also be easily fixed. Many China's bases have been constructed to make bombing difficult, etc. etc. etc.

So again, I'm not attempting to predict which side will win a war. I don't think anyone can do that even at the beginning of a potential conflict, not even experts. General MacArthur who would be the expert of all experts thought he would win the Korean war in a few months, but ended up fighting to a stalemate. The same went with the Vietnam war. The US would not go to Vietnam thinking that it would lose the conflict. the majority of military experts believed that the war could be won in a few months. and look at the outcome... And what about Napoleon? another expert shown to be unable to predict the outcome of a conflict... So don't even think about predicting the outcome of a potential conflict just because you think you know a few things about weapons. My point is that China is a completely different situation and need to be dealt with using completely different strategies. Those who believe that one can use the same method for catching a chicken to catch a deer (let alone this deer is transforming into a tiger.....) would be in a deep trouble in a potential conflict.

Best post ever. Cant agree with you more. There's a reason why Sun Tzu said, "don't fight wars you aren't sure you'll win" (and a long of a bunch of the other divine wisdoms"
I'll add on: Boycott on China in terms of military arms didn't stop China from its own productions of military wares, did it? And that's not to mention China developed the first ASBM in the world.

airsuperiority · Apr 3, 2011

Engineer said:
I have already given you the reasons: stability, infrastructure, proficient workforce, and logistic. A lot of poor countries lack stability and all of them lack infrastructure, without which logistic is impossible. Yes, there are people in US who need jobs, but many are not proficient because they lack practice... assuming they want shitty manufacturing jobs in the first place.

Given infinite amount of capital and indefinite amont of time, everything can be fixed. I can use your very same argument to counter argue and claim how China can fix everything. We can go back and forth like this forever. However, that would be silly. So, let's us just stick to reality.

Yes, those countries that you've mentioned can have similar competitiveness to China, but they don't. Potential and capability are different. At the end of the day, China is the most competitive right now, and there is no question that the West relies on China for cheap goods.

There is also no question that the West cannot survive without China. If the West could, they would have boycotted China long ago, even if the sole purpose is to impede China's growth. That this is not done shows that the West cannot simply stop buying from China.

You not only need to know the general location of the missile. You need to predict its trajectory and calculate the precise intercept point because the missile is moving so fast. This means the interceptor has to be launched after the ASBM is well into the end-game maneuver and is in free fall. This decreases the reaction time of the interception. Decreased reaction time means shorter tracking duration, which in turn reduces the likelihood of a successful interception.

But thing is not so simple. Reconnaissance satellites have low orbits because mission requirements demand them to have low orbits.

China places a lot of emphasis on EW. GPS jammer is simple compare to what China can do right now.

It just amazes me how much stuff ironsight can make up right on the spot, to the point i even question what his major is. if he brings his statements to any business majors, they'll think he's retarded(no offense, but he's just that bad)

airsuperiority · Apr 3, 2011

IronsightSniper said:
Can you not red? I said throw money, invest wisely.

Who really does? From the people I've talked to, we don't mind.

But that's only because we're not at war with China. The moment war starts, Americans will revert back to a WW2-esque thought pattern, save money, work hard.

Current capabilities are irrelevant as we are talking about the future. China cannot survive without the west, and without quoting again, you need money to maintain infrastructure, money China will run out of without the West.

Can you stop ignoring my point? The Missile HAS to follow a logical path in it's endgame to detect the target. If it can see the target, the target can see the missile, THEREFORE, the general area of the missile is known, and a ABM can be launched, it's KV can separate, maneuver, and kill.

...It's reality.

So no real literature, pure conjecture?

Who's to say that turning them into workhorses is impossible? As unlikely as a Sino-American split is to occur, it is indeed VERY likely we'll turn to the labor markets down there to fill the gap. It won't be perfect, but they can do the gist of what China can. You don't need much to produce t-shirts and plastic toys.

It, by definition, is not slavery.

What are you talking about? Like I said, that "cost of living" will only rise temporarily. China doesn't produce too much that is difficult to produce elsewhere.

That's why there are MKV (although canceled). Decoys are ancient.

Are you Nostradamus? How do you predict that if there's a war, the US public will REVERT BACK IN HISTORY like the old ways? Do you realize how many years, generations, and difference there's been since ww2 in terms of era and technology? and do you know what is war of attrition? wow even a grade 1 can give you these response. it's freakin' common sense!!! i dont think you should tell us anymore of this stuff, because apparently you dont even know common sense yet.
and oh yea, US is in 2 wars right now. do we see the american public working hard in the exact fashion you've said? and if it goes so well, there won't be those AIG scandals and all. the truth is, it's complicated, and the american capitalist system is flawed. the very fact that the US have to outsource jobs and invest overseas and all that shows the limits of america's ways

Effectiveness of China's Air Defence?

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General

Engineer

Major

solarz

Brigadier

IronsightSniper

Junior Member

no_name

Colonel

bladerunner

Banned Idiot

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General

airsuperiority

Captain

airsuperiority

Captain

airsuperiority

Captain