Crisis in Egypt & Middle East!

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

personally i am not a super devoted fan of democracy like most people on the internet claims to be nowadays because i believe there are more than one way to govern a country. but i believe if one asserts democracy to be its objective, then one might as well make it genuine. now i am not saying that none of those pro-mubarak ppl are police because i am pretty sure police are pro-mubarak. however the fact that ppl go on to label anyone that's pro-mubarak as police without any sort of concrete proof and thus denounces their right to take to the streets is in itself undemocratic. sure you can argue that "the police has done this before" but in the name of democracy i say that is far from sufficient. stalin used to say everyone he purged were western spies conspiring against the soviet...well using this argument he's got a point...the west has attempted to subvert the soviet early in its reign, but anyone who says that stalin's purge is legitimated by that gets laughed at nowadays. of course if i were one of the leaders of demonstration i'd also denounce my opposition as police because its just good politics...but if i were a pro-democracy kinda person i'd be very vigilant towards those kinda rhetoric. so overall the fact that we dont know that the pro-mubarak crowd are not thugs and police is just to weak an argument to justify labelling them as thugs and police. unfortunately rationalism is not a common attribute in revolutionary circumstances, that's just a sad reality in this world.

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

pla101prc said:

personally i am not a super devoted fan of democracy like most people on the internet claims to be nowadays because i believe there are more than one way to govern a country. but i believe if one asserts democracy to be its objective, then one might as well make it genuine. now i am not saying that none of those pro-mubarak ppl are police because i am pretty sure police are pro-mubarak. however the fact that ppl go on to label anyone that's pro-mubarak as police without any sort of concrete proof and thus denounces their right to take to the streets is in itself undemocratic. sure you can argue that "the police has done this before" but in the name of democracy i say that is far from sufficient. stalin used to say everyone he purged were western spies conspiring against the soviet...well using this argument he's got a point...the west has attempted to subvert the soviet early in its reign, but anyone who says that stalin's purge is legitimated by that gets laughed at nowadays. of course if i were one of the leaders of demonstration i'd also denounce my opposition as police because its just good politics...but if i were a pro-democracy kinda person i'd be very vigilant towards those kinda rhetoric. so overall the fact that we dont know that the pro-mubarak crowd are not thugs and police is just to weak an argument to justify labelling them as thugs and police. unfortunately rationalism is not a common attribute in revolutionary circumstances, that's just a sad reality in this world.

Click to expand...

The use of thugs and police in this role is well known in Egypt and other places ( The CIA hired thugs when they ended democracy in Iran in 1953 and installed the Shah dictatorship). But other groups were also mentioned this morning. It was said that the people living of hiring out camels and horses to tourists near the pyramids were taken their animals to Tahrir place, having lost their income now the tourists were gone. No doubt other people. were found. In view of the timing of the attack in Cairo as well as Alexandria there can be no doubt that the rioters were organized. The fact that the anti-mubarak people were not organized and these rioters were is clear enough.

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

delft said:

In view of the timing of the attack in Cairo as well as Alexandria there can be no doubt that the rioters were organized. The fact that the anti-mubarak people were not organized and these rioters were is clear enough.

Click to expand...

Exactly.

And, @pla101prc, if anyone made a post on this thread claiming they were all police, I missed it. I have not seen this in the media either, or even among the quotes from participants provided at the aljazeera web site. As to "thugs", this is simply a description of their behavior, not their "job" in daily life. The point, actually, is as delft has pointed out: this is way too well organized to be spontaneous.

I can also argue this point more or less along the lines you have been arguing: Why in the world would you expect Mubarak to stay away from the fray? Obviously, he needs to save his skin!

personally i am not a super devoted fan of democracy like most people on the internet claims to be nowadays because i believe there are more than one way to govern a country. but i believe if one asserts democracy to be its objective, then one might as well make it genuine.

Click to expand...

I agree with you about "ways to govern a country", but the slogans on the street are not created by political theorists, in this case, and in 2011, this is a popular slogan throughout the world. Now, if this turns out to be a revolution, of course it will be hard fought! This will include not only "anti-democratic" style propaganda, but things much nastier than this. Contradictory? Well yes, but you have to expect this, when hundreds of thousands of people from all walks of life, and every sort of political ideology and experience, are thrown together in a couple of weeks' time.

As to the benefits of "democracy", I simply feel that a society has to have a way of ensuring the state, generally speaking, serves its interests... and not those of it's perceived enemies! This upheaval was not caused simply by high food prices.

The problem of a state serving outside forces is one that particularly plagues smaller, weaker states and not major ones, and it is an ancient one.

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

The major flaw in American thinking has always been a blisteringly hypocritical attitude towards co-operative dictatorships. There seems to be an endless list of former US totalitarian allies that had citizen revolts and ended with, understandably, hostile governments.

If America allows a hostile government in Egypt, China would be strategically well served to immediately fill the vacuum. Egyptians would prosper given large Chinese investment in civilian as well as military infrastructure and technology.

Furthermore, a large Chinese presence in Egypt will ensure the security of not only the Egyptian government, but to the Chinese people as well. The West will do more than just merely hesitate at interfering with China's vulnerable energy supply chain with China ensuring the security of the Suez Canal and Pipelines that fuel Europe.

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

jantxv said:

The major flaw in American thinking has always been a blisteringly hypocritical attitude towards co-operative dictatorships. There seems to be an endless list of former US totalitarian allies that had citizen revolts and ended with, understandably, hostile governments.

If America allows a hostile government in Egypt, China would be strategically well served to immediately fill the vacuum. Egyptians would prosper given large Chinese investment in civilian as well as military infrastructure and technology.

Furthermore, a large Chinese presence in Egypt will ensure the security of not only the Egyptian government, but to the Chinese people as well. The West will do more than just merely hesitate at interfering with China's vulnerable energy supply chain with China ensuring the security of the Suez Canal and Pipelines that fuel Europe.

Click to expand...

By Hostile government, I'm assuming a radical fundamentalist govt headed by the "Muslim Brotherhood" which has stated that it would revoke the Egypt Israel peace treaty. I think this could lead to the region descending into greater turmoil than currently exists.

If Egypt was to return as the leading force in a struggle against Israel, it would hardly make it an attractive place for the Chinese to invest billions in infrastructure, only to see it destroyed in any renewed military conflict with Israel.

Perhaps it is time for Mabarak to go in a orderly fashion, and any dreams he had of establishing a family dynasty to rule Egypt has vanished. I note that the press has been less than complimentary to him, but he did prevent Egypt from descending into political chaos with the assassination of Sadat and its people return to being used as cannon fodder in the Arab fight against Israel.


One of his faults was his inability to improve the well being of his people , with nearly half remaining on the poverty line of $2 a day.Perhaps as I suggested earlier the geo political instability made the region less attractive to the investors that were attracted to Asia in the '80's. Egypt could have been a source of cheaply manufactured goods, supplying Europe, in much the same way Malaysia, Indonesia was supplying the Americas.

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

I wonder if somebody could pull down HxnSxn who has also been in power for more than 3 decades and recently threat to "close door to beat dog" if someone imitates the crisis in Tunisia. This regime still calls itself democracy. Sic!

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

jantxv said:

The West will do more than just merely hesitate at interfering with China's vulnerable energy supply chain with China ensuring the security of the Suez Canal and Pipelines that fuel Europe.

Click to expand...

I'm afraid this is somewhat optimistic. In the recent war against Serbia USAF destroyed two road bridges and a rail bridge at Novi Sad, closing the Danube for shipping. This did great damage to the economies of the Danubian countries, from Germany to Romania and even the Netherlands (there is a canal connecting Rhine and Danube in Germany). Bulgaria and Romania were especially affected. It took years to clear the river and then rebuild the bridges because of sanctions.
Kosovo, in which interest this destruction was wrought, depends for its connection to the EU countries on the same bridges. It's economy didn't recover and still depends on donations and the smuggling of illegal drugs, cigarettes and women. I'm sorry, I'm getting off topic talking about this failed state.
To return, I don't think the US would refrain from closing the Suez Canal just because it would damage their allies in Europe.

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

China most likely does not care who is in power as long as it wants to do business with them lol...so that means no wars. frankly whether or not egypt is pro-israel means little to Beijing since it is not interested in either bringing down israel or destabilize the region.

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

A gas pipeline explosion has severed supplies to Israel and Jordan according to several news sources.Israel get around 40% of their natural gas from Egypt but have recently discovered huge reserves of their own offshore.Jordan however relies much more on their gas from Egypt receiving some 80% to generate their electricity.A huge fire is being tackled at the site in N.Sinai.Some are pointing the blame on the local Bedouin tribes who have attacked these pipelines before.They could be taking advantage of the crisis or the explosions may be linked to others, either way it is another event in the story of change in Egypt.

Major power shift about to happen due unrest in egypt

Out of curiosity did a quick fact-checking on egyptian military. Whoever inherits power in egypt will have some serious assets at his disposal.

Mubarak has poured loads and loads of US ad to modernize egyptian military to keep his generals happy and those numbers are just staggering. It's a true with a serious and infrastructure to back it up.

If the (next) egyptian government for somewhat reason redeploys to sinai Israel is deep doo doo, IAF can't pull the '67 trick again against such an advanced adversary with AEW&C capabilities. IDF will be outnumbered on the ground with egyptian forces alone, not even counting other possible arab combatants into the mix.

Lack of somewhat guranteed pre-emption must be a very frightening feeling for israelis.

I have a really bad feeling about this, even if egypt turns to be all right in the end.

Mods note >> No need for another thread on Egypt. Discuss the Egyptian Crisis in this thread.

bd popeye super moderator