Re: Crisis in Egypt!
There is no organization which embraces the whole movement. But some organization is taking shape, and it looks like withdrawing the police for a couple of days was a mistake for the regime. All kinds of committees have been formed to keep order, help traffic get through, prevent looting, deal with medical emergencies, etc. The longer there is a standoff, the more of this sort of organization will evolve, and many of these people will be radicalized. Other than this, it is basically recognized that the Muslim Brotherhood is the best organized force, and probably the force with the biggest support. Yet, it is definitely in the minority. El Baradei has returned to Egypt and looks like a possible figurehead for the movement. He is a well known figure, and is respected internationally, but has no base in Egypt. This makes him attractive to others who do have organization and a base, but not enough clout to speak for the movement.
As far as promised elections, that's not till September. This would give the regime enough time to organize a smooth transition... to another regime just like the present one. Of course those people protesting do not want this. Right now, the army enjoys the trust of the people, it seems. I don't know if this is justified, but I would note that there is much talk about the army being "Western trained" or "Westernnized", kind of implying that "the West" also trusts the army. Either or both could be wrong.
One significant thing about Egyptian politics is that the regime has no "legitimacy" at all. He is not a monarch, nor is he really "elected". Mubarak presides over the Arab Nationalist bureacracy left over from Nasser, but he's no Nasser and no Arab Nationalist. And with the financial crisis and rampant inflation present throughout the developing world these days, especially where food is concerned, the regime is not delivering prosperity in any form either. Mubarak cannot stay, but the future is a bit of a problem, because for the US, and even more for Israel, he is kind of "irreplaceable".
The special problem posed by this "regime change" is that someone too close to Mubarak will not be accepted as real change by the people, and someone NOT too close may not be acceptable to the US and Israel. The reason is that his policy of state, i.e., his policy towards Israel and the Palestinians, towards Arab unity and towards the US, is at odds with the majority of the population. Mubarak supports the blockade of Gaza, which is abhorrent to most Egyptians overwhelmingly.
For this reason, while both the protesters and those saying the army is "westernized" could be wrong, I don't think both can be right. I don't know how this will end, and I hope it will not be a bloodbath. But if the protesters get their way, and a genuinely new regime takes the place of the current one, such a regime will necessarily take a different policy towards Gaza, Israel, etc. "Securing" Israel, from this point forward, may become much more expensive, both politically and financially. Especially if, as would seem likely, a victory for the protesters in Egypt would encourage even further turmoil in Jordan and Yemen.
