Crisis in Egypt & Middle East!

SampanViking · Feb 1, 2011

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

I would not get too excited over this.

This looks more and more like a coup rather than a revolution. Mubarak is what 82? so his removal is hardly that earth shattering. I would guess that another General has done a deal with Washington and the rest is just theatre.

Underlying problems will not be solved however as root is still global inflation caused by US QE. Until this printed money is actually directed by the Banks towards Main St USA and not carted straight off to the Currency and Futures markets, expect to see a lot more instability around the world hitting the poorer countries. Coming back to the Asia Pacific region, I would especially watch the Philippines.

Finn McCool · Feb 1, 2011

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

Everyone has known for sometime that the oppressive, corrupt leftovers of the Arab nationalist era which are scattered around the Mideast had to fall sometime. The process began in Tunisia and now awaits Egypt. Egypt is a very strategic country because it has always exercised a great influence over the culture, particularly the political culture, of the other Arab nations.

I think the likelihood of an Islamic radical takeover in Egypt is exaggerated. For example, the recent violence there between Christians and Muslims got a lot of coverage in the international media, but the backlash against it (which involved political action of various kinds by millions of Egyptians and should certainly be viewed as a precursor to the current protests) received almost none, despite being bigger and more important than the actual sectarian violence that inspired it.

kwaigonegin · Feb 1, 2011

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

Finn McCool said:
Everyone has known for sometime that the oppressive, corrupt leftovers of the Arab nationalist era which are scattered around the Mideast had to fall sometime. The process began in Tunisia and now awaits Egypt. Egypt is a very strategic country because it has always exercised a great influence over the culture, particularly the political culture, of the other Arab nations.

I think the likelihood of an Islamic radical takeover in Egypt is exaggerated. For example, the recent violence there between Christians and Muslims got a lot of coverage in the international media, but the backlash against it (which involved political action of various kinds by millions of Egyptians and should certainly be viewed as a precursor to the current protests) received almost none, despite being bigger and more important than the actual sectarian violence that inspired it.

looks like Jordan is next! But Abdullah II may be wise as he is preempting it by calling for a change in government before the folks get too restless!

andyhugfan · Feb 1, 2011

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

kwaigonegin said:
looks like Jordan is next! But Abdullah II may be wise as he is preempting it by calling for a change in government before the folks get too restless!

Yeah, and Gaddafi annouced a 24 billion (!!) dollar package for the poor Libyans... lol

Finn McCool · Feb 1, 2011

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

I wouldn't be too quick to predict the fall of Jordan. I'd reckon there's a higher ratio of security forces to people there. If I remember correctly, Jordan is somewhat divided between people from "Transjordanian" ancestry and Palestinian refugees, with the Palestinians making up the majority. And the Hashemite ruling family has a lot of loyalty from native Jordanians, because they keep the native Jordanians on top of the huge Palestinian population. So I could see that getting in the way of popular unity, but I'm not sure how deep that divide runs.

Mr T · Feb 1, 2011

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

SampanViking said:
This looks more and more like a coup rather than a revolution. Mubarak is what 82? so his removal is hardly that earth shattering. I would guess that another General has done a deal with Washington and the rest is just theatre.

I'm not so sure. There are a lot of angry Egyptians on the streets now. If their actions get rid of Mubarak, they won't accept another strongman taking his place indefinitely. They'll take to the streets again, unless the new guy very quickly sorted all their problems out.

kwaigonegin said:
looks like Jordan is next!

I'd have to disagree, for the moment. The King is better respected than Mubarak is in Egypt. His opponents will try to take advantage of the protests in Egypt, but I'm not sure there's widespread desire to oust King Abdullah.

pla101prc · Feb 1, 2011

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

isnt jordan one of those super rich countries that hand money out for free? i know kuwait does that sometimes...they can have 50% unemployment and not have any sort of riot in years.

o btw mubarak said he wont run for reelection...and reelection to my knowledge is pretty close...like this year. it'll be interesting to see what the opposition will say to that. i personally think that's enough concession for them to settle,but since the opposition isnt really a unitary actor itself,its hard to say.

who here is from egypt or is familiar with egyptian politics?

pla101prc · Feb 1, 2011

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

lol popeye changed my title...this guy is worse than mubarak...not even making an effort to hide his tyranny

kwaigonegin · Feb 1, 2011

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

true... and unlike the other 3 countries so far, Jordan is a constitutional monarchy. However when I say next I didn't necessarily mean the ousting of Abdullah but rather political reforms which has allready begun with the sacking of the government by Abdullah!

bd popeye · Feb 1, 2011

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

pla101prc said:
lol popeye changed my title...this guy is worse than mubarak...not even making an effort to hide his tyranny

Huh? Who me..LAMO... Or were you refering to the King of Jordan i.e.Abdullah II bin al-Hussein?? ...

Crisis in Egypt & Middle East!

SampanViking

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Finn McCool

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kwaigonegin

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andyhugfan

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Finn McCool

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Mr T

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pla101prc

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pla101prc

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kwaigonegin

Colonel

bd popeye

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