Crisis in Egypt & Middle East!

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

delft said:

I'm just listening to BBC World Service. The army is allowing "pro-Mubarak demonstrators" unto the Tahrir Square. I would guess the idea is to allow chaos, then the army restores order and the army commander takes over and organizes elections to have himself or a friend elected to be the next president. The army commander is a friend of the US.

Click to expand...

Probably the some of the same bunch of losers that were in Alexandria less than 24 hours ago. Actually, the news from Al Jazeera is a bit ugly and talks about on the square. Other articles there say the army is "seen as neutral". This will obviously change. So $1.3 billion dollars a year goes towards the imprisonment of the Egyptian society.

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

Red Moon said:

But without organization, its doubtful it would be effective. The real wild card is the leadership of the army. The minister of defense, of course, is with Mubarak, but I would suspect that at some level, the officer corps is divided, though its anybody's guess at just what level. It worries me that the army's statements are taken at face value by the protesters, and I just hope they're right.

Click to expand...

My point is that whoever is in charge of the army should be very wary to order the soldiers to seriously crackdown on the protesters. It could cause serious breakdowns in discipline and just opens a can of worms. Remember, these soldiers have been out in the streets with the protesters for days now. They've been fraternizing. They've seen the size and passion of the crowds, and they've heard what the opposition has to say. Ordering them to open fire could result in mutiny.

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

Finn McCool said:

My point is that whoever is in charge of the army should be very wary to order the soldiers to seriously crackdown on the protesters. It could cause serious breakdowns in discipline and just opens a can of worms. Remember, these soldiers have been out in the streets with the protesters for days now. They've been fraternizing. They've seen the size and passion of the crowds, and they've heard what the opposition has to say. Ordering them to open fire could result in mutiny.

Click to expand...

I understand. But very ugly things are taking place. The army seems to have allowed attacking pro-Mubarak mobs into the area where the protests are, with horses, camels, knives, molotov cocktails, etc. It appears to at least partly plainclothes police, and partly hoodlums paid to do this. The army controls all access to the square, and the intention of a bunch of people on horseback armed with knives and metal pipes is kind of obvious. Apparently hundreds are injured, with at least one death. More recently, as night fell, the hoodlums seem to have retreated. It is unclear what the army is doing, but you see, intervening against these thugs may also be divisive -- at least at the top!

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

Frequent gunfire (mainly short automatic bursts) can be heard throughout Cairo, with the apparent epicenter of the mob violence being the area around Tahrir Square in the center of the city, where the opposition has been rallying. Apparently tanks are maneuvering at this very moment around the square and on the major bridges in central Cairo. Supposedly the armored vehicles in the square have moved out of the square itself but are in the area. Various numbers of casualties, all fairly low, are being tossed around. It's impossible to know who is doing the shooting at this moment, but the "pro-Mubarek crowd" has been blamed for most of it. It could also be the Army firing warning shots, and firing at people. A lot of illegal guns are floating around now since so many police stations have been looted, etc.

Al Jazerra has live streaming coverage. They get a bad reputation in the US for being "anti-American" but I've been watching it quite a bit and the English language channel has been intellectually honest completely.



Based on Popeye's pictures he posted earlier, we know that Egyptian special forces at least used to be inside the Egyptian Museum. That building looks out over a big part of the square and the 6th of October bridge which has been the scene of clashes. Supposedly they were set in to protect the antiquities, but if they're still there, they could have excellent fields of fire over the epicenter of the protests. Just something I noticed looking at GoogleEarth

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

My GE explorations have revealed there are many sensitive buildings in the area of the square.



The protesters should storm the ministries and High Court and Arab League.

Also, I saw some recent live video of Egyptian Army M-60s laying a smokescreen.

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

What are the army thinking about allowing civilians to climb all over their tanks and armoured vehicles and sit around on them? Surely this is a serious security lapse? Are they really that trusting or are they allowing it in order to send the message to Mubarak they are part of his problem? What if something really serious kicks off ?How can they ensure control of their vehicles and themselves? In my opinion,they are far too lapse and unprofessional.Also,they may well have stood down and allowed the demonstrations but now things have taken a turn for the worst and the citizens are getting injured and killed, don't they still have a duty to step in, stop the violence and protect them regardless off what side anyone is on.I just feel they are too laid back and neglecting their duties and risking their own security now.Everything changes as everything stays the same.

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

It may be that the leadership (of the army) is sitting on the fence, or else, since the anti-government crowd is larger than the thug crowd, the army is letting the thugs do the dirty work, and just hanging around in case the demonstrators get the upper hand. I'm beginning to think I'd like to see Mubarak's head severed. sorry.

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

i like how when there is pro-mubarak crowd they are immediately labeled as undercover cops and gets blamed for all the violence...violence does not go just one way, its called "clash" for a reason. people might wanna say that oh there was never this much violence before the pro-mubarak crowd came. well duh, when there is only one side you damn sure as hell wont have a huge amongst yourselves. people should use their head and think "hmmm, why has mubarak been in power for 30 years? maybe there are people that like him after all".

if the type of democracy that these people want is "anyone against me should be thrown in jail because they are for tyranny"...then i say as a democracy movement it has already become an epic failure. though i am not quite surprised because most democracy movements end up as epic failures.

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

the army's actions thus far has been somewhat beyond anticipation but within reason. by announcing that they wont use violence, they've ensured that mubarak will have to go while getting all the thmubs up from the ppl. but now they have reversed their positions a lil, telling people to go home and allowing pro-mubarak demonstrators into the square...well this isnt hard to comprehend either, if i were the army i wouldnt want elbaradei or the muslim brothers to cruise to victory...so there is bound to be violence because one, the army has to show them it is the one in control, and two, that there are pro-mubarak people around which the army can use as a counterbalance. just to keep the oppositions on their toes. so i say the army has maneuvered brilliantly in this given situation....and i say they've set a very bad example for other armies in the world when they come to encounter this kind of situation themselves LMAO

Re: Crisis in Egypt!

pla101prc said:

i like how when there is pro-mubarak crowd they are immediately labeled as undercover cops and gets blamed for all the violence...violence does not go just one way, its called "clash" for a reason. people might wanna say that oh there was never this much violence before the pro-mubarak crowd came. well duh, when there is only one side you damn sure as hell wont have a huge amongst yourselves.

Click to expand...

Your argument is nice in the general and abstract sense, but if the army guns down several thousand unarmed civilians, will you also say "it takes two to clash"? The pro-mubarak crowd came in riding on horses and camels, armed with pipes and knives. They came in, specifically, not to "demonstrate" but to fight. Reportedly, they have an inexhaustible supply of gasoline bombs, and some are also armed with guns. Rather than looking at the discussion here, you ought to go to aljazeera.net and look at the live streaming or the live blogging. If you look at ordinary "Western press", you will not get a very different picture either. But a stream of actual facts will destroy any abstract argument like this one.

As to them being police, few are claiming certainty on this but there are many reasons to believe this. First, because this method has been used historically in Egypt; second because already a week ago, over 100 had been killed in the protests, primarily by the police, both plainclothes and riot police, and quite a few with gunshots. There are actually other reasons: captured police ID's for example. There are also reports of people being recruited for this and paid to do it, another time-honored practice.

pla101prc said:

people should use their head and think "hmmm, why has mubarak been in power for 30 years? maybe there are people that like him after all".

Click to expand...

1.5 million strong police force, more than enough to absorb the yearly 1.3-1.5 billion dollar yearly grant to the government which the US provides in exchange for the regime's pro-Israel policy. Are there people who like him? Of course there are! That does not mean the attackers are not thugs or police.

pla101prc said:

if the type of democracy that these people want is "anyone against me should be thrown in jail because they are for tyranny"...then i say as a democracy movement it has already become an epic failure. though i am not quite surprised because most democracy movements end up as epic failures.

Click to expand...

Democracy, in this sense, may end up being no more than a signboard, and you are right that no regime will solve the economic problems which currently exist the world over. Still a regime with different policies which people can understand will be an improvement, and will not require this sort of repression.

And yes, I definitely think a different stand towards Israel is part of the solution. This does not imply breaking the peace treaty, but it probably does imply a different attitude towards Gaza.