China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[gpt]

The Peacekeeper was the last truly credible land-based deterrent but they no longer have the tooling due to consolidation and atrophy of the SRM industry. Peacekeeper used an SR118 first stage manufactured by Thiokol (now NG), SR119 second stage by Aerojet and SR120 third stage by Hercules (now NG). NG is simply refurbishing them and it still flies as the Minotaur IV rocket.



Sentinel is somewhere between Minuteman III and Peacekeeper.

 

[gelgoog]

They let the solid rocket industry atrophy. Part of the reason for having SRMs in the Shuttle was to indirectly fund the solid rocket industry so there would be one in case they needed to redesign the ballistic missiles. For a long time there was also a policy to have at least two solid rocket companies, Aerojet and Thiokol, by throwing some work at them. The Delta rockets used Thiokol GEM boosters, and the Atlas rockets used Aerojet boosters. Then they merged both space companies into ULA, and the Vulcan rocket chose Thiokol. Shuttle is gone, and SpaceX does not use solids. There is SLS which does use solids, but they are by Thiokol, and just a minor modification of the Shuttle solids, yet they took forever to design and make them. Today you have basically Thiokol as a monopoly and that is it.

In theory with modern know-how you could design higher performance solids. You have denser explosives like CL-20. But I kind of doubt that will happen. It would balloon the cost even more since the industry to produce CL-20 at that kind of scale in the US does not exist.

 

[Kalec]

China about to have three ICBM launch windows in the early morning of 10/25/2024.

A typical ICBM launch from Taiyuan or Jilantai, shame they don't continue to launch into the Pacific Ocean.

The launch notable comes with five NOTAM zones with three of them overlapping together and the impact point is Minfeng ICBM impact zone.

View attachment 137760

Notam data:

Another ICBM test with exactly same NOTAM coming up tomorrow.

The NOTAM is so identical that I don't need to draw another launch map lol.

NOTAM info for comparison:

Oct 25 launch:

A3519/24 NOTAMN
Q) ZLHW/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/3940N10119E030
A) ZLHW B) 2410250022 C) 2410250529
D) 0022-0120 0451-0529
E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY:
N392509E1004505-N395207E1004258-N395502E1015300-N392803E1015440,
BACK TO START.
VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL.
F) SFC G) UNL

Nov 8 launch:

A3801/24 NOTAMN
Q) ZLHW/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/3940N10119E030
A) ZLHW B) 2411080159 C) 2411080748
D) 0159-0219,0727-0748
E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY:
N392509E1004505-N395207E1004258-N395502E1015300-N392803E1015440,
BACK TO START.
VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL.
F) SFC G) UNL

 

[gpt]

Tl;dr 4 GEO satellites have cover most of the plant expect for some part of Atlantic,whose northern hemisphere will be monitored by Shiyan-10-01 and 02 HEO satellites. In theory China still needs possibly two more HEOs as well as two more GEOs.
View attachment 110003

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Celestrak data is out on CZ-3B launch of TJS-13. Payload headed to a 162x40113km HEO. Third stage burn placed it a similar trajectory as Shiyan-10 01,02's. It will drift to Molniya next year.

 

[styx]

The Peacekeeper was the last truly credible land-based deterrent but they no longer have the tooling due to consolidation and atrophy of the SRM industry. Peacekeeper used an SR118 first stage manufactured by Thiokol (now NG), SR119 second stage by Aerojet and SR120 third stage by Hercules (now NG). NG is simply refurbishing them and it still flies as the Minotaur IV rocket.

View attachment 138243

Sentinel is somewhere between Minuteman III and Peacekeeper.

df-41 and rs-24 are somewhere between minuteman 3 and peacekeeper

 

[HumanHDMI]

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Anyone know what range/test etc he is talking about?

 

[Blitzo]

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Anyone know what range/test etc he is talking about?

Nope, but I would also point out knowing the nature of the test (what kind of guidance scenario were they using, let alone the type of missile) is important.

Which is to say, meh

 

[Wrought]

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Anyone know what range/test etc he is talking about?

I would be far more concerned if 100% of the test missiles hit successfully, because that would imply unrealistically favorable conditions. There will be a nonzero amount of misses in any real conflict, and discovering as many of those conditions as possible during training is far better than the alternative.

 

[ismellcopium]

I would be far more concerned if 100% of the test missiles hit successfully, because that would imply unrealistically favorable conditions. There will be a nonzero amount of misses in any real conflict, and discovering as many of those conditions as possible during training is far better than the alternative.

I mean even statistical outliers mean you'd expect to see a couple of those now and then even with a precise missile, only 50% of rounds land within the CEP, and with the sheer amount of training they do.

Also, lol:

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[BoraTas]

I would be far more concerned if 100% of the test missiles hit successfully, because that would imply unrealistically favorable conditions. There will be a nonzero amount of misses in any real conflict, and discovering as many of those conditions as possible during training is far better than the alternative.

Chinese impact ranges have EW instrumentation. A 100% success rate would mean 100% EW resistance, which of course isn't happening.