this is the complete report; 550 intercontinental lunchers. Quality of the report is questionable though, there is no mentioning of df-45/51 that we saw in this thread. Likely, they hide and manipulate real intelligence so that sources or methods of the intelligence gathering remain unknown to china.
There is an "other" entry in the ICBM section of the PLARF missile OOB on page 166. Perhaps this refers to the DF-45?
On another note, their analysis of Chinese civilian reactor construction claims HEU-based fuel will allow for better WGP production; this is false, a plutonium-based fuel is more efficient.
They also claim the DF-5C uses a multi-megaton warhead; my understanding is that all previous assumptions were that it would carry up to 10 MIRVs (DF-5B is 5 max). To me, this implies that some DF-5C may use stockpiled warheads from the retired DF-5As that were replaced by DF-5Bs. Assuming China remanufactures warheads every now and then, there should be no problem using them.
It's important to remember that these are the same people who claimed the Soviets would have 800 jet-powered heavy bombers by 1960 when they ended up having about 40-50. The US has been heavily gunning for any excuse to expand its operational nuclear force, in 2020 Trump's representative for arms control literally said "we know how to start and win arms races" and just a couple days ago The Heritage Foundation or some think tank published an article calling for taking W80 and W79 (!!) warheads out of the stockpile and mounting them on LRASM, JASSM, and TLAMs. W79 is an artillery shell lol.
That said, China obviously needs to build a lot more warheads for the new silos, so the fissile material will have to come from somewhere. In addition, the silos started construction in 2020 or 2021, right? The arming of silos in 2024 would track with historical mass silo deployments. The Minuteman I silos started construction in 1961 and became fully operational in 1964.
