China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
This is what I thought as well. So it really just meant some people cheaped fuel with cheaper less effective substitute mixed with original fuel. When I say fuel it include solid. The solid could be mixed with more stabilizing agent to cheap out.
No, it's got nothing to do with fuel. "Injecting water" is an idiom with its origin in a practice of unscrupulous butchers who would inject water into cuts of meat to increase their weight and volume. Of course, once that meat was cooked, the excess is gone. The term means inflating or padding something artificially. For example, "injecting water" into a budget means inflating costs so you can skim the excess.

This is probably what the term was used for in the context of the PLARF officers that were dismissed from their posts. You see the quality of public-facing "China experts", it's a rarity that they even speak the language, let alone understand these linguistic nuances; the ones working in the "intelligence" services are hardly any better.

Add to that that Americans in general will believe the most outlandish things about China. I made a joke on Reddit years ago about the meme that the Chinese leadership is paranoid about trusting their officers by claiming that every Chinese submarine has a wire connecting it to Zhongnanhai so the Chairman can steer it from his desk. Some of the morons believed it. So of course it's natural they'd believe that "injecting water" means that PLARF officers literally injected water instead of fuel into missiles.
 

Maikeru

Major
Registered Member
No, it's got nothing to do with fuel. "Injecting water" is an idiom with its origin in a practice of unscrupulous butchers who would inject water into cuts of meat to increase their weight and volume. Of course, once that meat was cooked, the excess is gone. The term means inflating or padding something artificially. For example, "injecting water" into a budget means inflating costs so you can skim the excess.

This is probably what the term was used for in the context of the PLARF officers that were dismissed from their posts. You see the quality of public-facing "China experts", it's a rarity that they even speak the language, let alone understand these linguistic nuances; the ones working in the "intelligence" services are hardly any better.

Add to that that Americans in general will believe the most outlandish things about China. I made a joke on Reddit years ago about the meme that the Chinese leadership is paranoid about trusting their officers by claiming that every Chinese submarine has a wire connecting it to Zhongnanhai so the Chairman can steer it from his desk. Some of the morons believed it. So of course it's natural they'd believe that "injecting water" means that PLARF officers literally injected water instead of fuel into missiles.
Well that explanation makes a lot more sense than any others I've seen for the 'water in missiles' claim. What about the silo lids? That PLAN defector said lack of maintenance for what can only be DF-5 silos was the cause, others say a design fault affecting the new silo fields.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Well that explanation makes a lot more sense than any others I've seen for the 'water in missiles' claim. What about the silo lids? That PLAN defector said lack of maintenance for what can only be DF-5 silos was the cause, others say a design fault affecting the new silo fields.
There's no PLAN defector and the DF-5 is a red herring (注水 taken literally -> shenanigans with liquid-fuelled missiles). Twitter accounts like the one claiming a defector are disinformation run by FLG or China_irl types with genuine mental illnesses or criminal histories, the kind of people you're seeing show up at the US-Mexico border.

We know from @Kalec that there are design issues with the solid-fuelled missile silo opening mechanism as he outlined here

Edit: The whole thing is probably interconnected. The failure of the silos to open correctly might have brought increased scrutiny to the whole operation leading to irregularities being discovered, which then led to these dismissals and possible criminal charges.
 
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Zhejiang

Junior Member
Registered Member
It took a while but I got it, I finally got it. I got how US "intelligence" (the biggest oxymoron in the Universe) came up with an idea as ridiculous as the PLARF filling missile with water. It took so long because the depths of stupidity I had to plumb were limitless. If you're drinking anything, swallow and set the cup down now.

The monkeys translated "注水" literally.
lol, god damn are they stupid, they really need to hire someone who understands anything. Because clearly what they’re doing now is not working. Also how do you know that? Is there a document you found?
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
2. Lack of survivable NC3

For example, airborne nuclear command is essential to flexibility and credibility of nuclear deterrence, I see no such plane yet. You can't rely on ground-based radio station in a nuclear war. And they should upgrade their strategic comms satellites soon.
Aren't there already two retrofitted 737-300s serving as the airborne command post aircrafts that are currently operated by the PLAAF?

FngX-cAWIA4Q2GS.jpeg

Though, while I don't think that the two 737s are comparable to the E-4Bs in terms of capabilities, I do believe that their roles are similar.

3. No show of strength

Can you believe that PLARF never shows a real DF-41 apart from 2019 parade. Yeah it is what happens right now. Nuclear deterrence is to show your adversary that they have to take unacceptable loss in a nuclear war therefore you have to show they how. PLARF is hiding every advanced missiles from spotlight and roll outs old DF-11, DF-15 every time. Jesus, can someone imagine that PLAAF release J-7G and J-8F only all day long in 2024

Well, what if one day China might conduct "test" launches of DF-41s from the mainland and splashdowns somewhere in the CentPac or even EastPac as some kind of message delivery when things are tight? But hey, that's just me.
 
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tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
Wow looks like our dreaded Schrodinger China has attacked again.

The next time American officials talks about arms control and complain.

About China doubling its nuclear arsenal in a few years.
1704656010946.png
About increasing their production of Plutonium.

1704656141139.png
And Tritium.
1704656365227.png
Hypersonics and low yield nukes.

1704656433839.png

Chinese officials should remind their US counterparts that there is nothing to fear because their missiles are fill with water instead of fuel and the silo doors wont even open.
The last time I remember a missile fill with water instead of fuel has never killed anyone.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Some concerns:

1. Lack of nuclear doctrine

Chinese official nuclear doctrine didn't change much between 1960s and 2020s. Come on, they are pretending business still as usual while approaching parity with US/RU in early 2030s. It is not nuclear posture works and they should change it.

2. Lack of survivable NC3

For example, airborne nuclear command is essential to flexibility and credibility of nuclear deterrence, I see no such plane yet. You can't rely on ground-based radio station in a nuclear war. And they should upgrade their strategic comms satellites soon.

3. No show of strength

Can you believe that PLARF never shows a real DF-41 apart from 2019 parade. Yeah it is what happens right now. Nuclear deterrence is to show your adversary that they have to take unacceptable loss in a nuclear war therefore you have to show they how. PLARF is hiding every advanced missiles from spotlight and roll outs old DF-11, DF-15 every time. Jesus, can someone imagine that PLAAF release J-7G and J-8F only all day long in 2024

4. No nationwide exercise

PLARF operates at a rather local stance compared to NATO/Russia who has annual nuclear exercise to practice coordinated strike/counter-strike. Meanwhile PLARF exercise is all about "I am the fastest kid in launching" or "mom I live in a tunnel for 3 weeks long" and I am not even kidding, anti-fatigue exercise in a tunnel is an essential part of their training.

In case if someone is asking "how do you know have all these stuffs, what if they have but don't show us." They should, it is their job to showcase their readiness to achieve deterrence.

To be fair I think 3 and 4 are somewhat high profile events which would only really be worthwhile doing if one wants to convey a serious warning during a period of serious tension or crisis as one of the final acts of deterrence/warning.

Doing so out of the blue without such a preceding strategic environment would likely result in not only providing adversaries more time to prepare their own countermeasures and/or developmental programs due to displaying a public show of force at a large scale, but also it would be doing so before the bulk of the PLARF's new emerging capabilities are fully operational thus perhaps undermining the deterrence that they want their actual capabilities to produce.


That said I do see where you're coming from, in the sense that if capabilities are not showcased/reminded then it may undermine their deterrence capability as well -- but at this current stage of the PLARF's and PLAN's modernization and expansion (new silos for solid fuel ICBMs and new SSBNs) I can see a rationale for not advertising things too much while they build up these capabilities.
 

ChongqingHotPot92

Junior Member
Registered Member
I see. Now we got another possible explanation regarding “water-filled” missiles. They are passively serious human errors regarding the post-boost re-entry vehicle. It also explains who so many PLARF officers have been arrested (amounting to a purge). The PLARF has never operated large numbers of ICBMs and MIRVs. If this guy’s assertion were true, the PLARF’s ICBM force has a long way to go regarding logistics personnel training on top of building more missiles and launchers.

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Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
I see. Now we got another possible explanation regarding “water-filled” missiles. They are passively serious human errors regarding the post-boost re-entry vehicle. It also explains who so many PLARF officers have been arrested (amounting to a purge). The PLARF has never operated large numbers of ICBMs and MIRVs. If this guy’s assertion were true, the PLARF’s ICBM force has a long way to go regarding logistics personnel training on top of building more missiles and launchers.

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This particular explanation is not anymore likely than any other of the many permutations people have speculated over.

We are all operating from the same limited information, so there's no need to post every personal discovery or observation you come across as if it is particularly more credible or likely than anything else that has already been remarked on.
 
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