Jeff Head
...and this is where we disagree. The ability to have a massive and overwhelming and debilitating attack in a thirty minute period is just not realistic. There would be advanced notification via the logistics required to make that happen, and via intelligencec. In addition, it is not a sure thing that such an attack would lay waste to all of the ROC airforce or their stores...or even a majority of it.
This attack wouldn't require significant preparations. Much of the weapons involved are in theater or close enough to be used. All they'd have to do is move some of the weapons to those places, assuming they aren't already there.
Israel launched a similar attack in the Six-Day War, despite not having anything close to the capabilities of China today.
The point of the attack is not destroying the ROCAF, but keeping it grounded and removing it's ability to know when an attack is incoming. Attacking weapons stores would just increase the stress of any of the ROCAF that makes it into the air.
Attacks on the airbases could damage runways sufficiently to keep the ROCAF grounded.
The ROC defintely has plans for this and on the 1st clear indication that an attack was being planned, they would initiate them, which would include dispersal and ensuring that their assets are in hardened facilites.
They don't have to know an attack is being planned. The attack could already have been planned. Taiwan is one of the most likely conflict China could see itself in right now. As such they are already drawing up different plans for taking on Taiwan. Taiwan can't defend against every conitingency. Some of them, like the second scenario I gave, would be impossible to defend against.
Like I said, I do not believe Chinese planners can count on an overwhelming, 30 minute strike that renders the ROC defenseless...nor do I think they are thinking that way.
I kind of doubt they're thinking like that myself. However, I think in some capacity they would do something like this. Most likely an attack would be carried out in ways that make U.S. intervention pointless. Which means using long-range air attacks and special ops forces, as well as a naval blockade. Seizure of islands would be a part of this. Most likely Penghu would be used to send and retrieve special ops forces operating on the island.
As to whether Bush would fight the PRC or not...short of the ROC abjectly inviting it...which I do not think is likely in the current environment at all...the US would defend Taiwan.
I just think that's wishful thinking on your part. A Democrat president is more likely, I think, to get involved in Taiwan.
The_Zergling
In the "take outlying islands hostage" scenario, this is no less valid, though it's more a matter of Taiwanese top-level leadership rather than will of the average joe. In this situation China has played a political card, but simultaneously sacrifices the military advantage of surprise. What's China to do here if the Taiwanese government does not immediately surrender? Killing the hostages on the islands (Penghu for example is a vacation resort mind you) would kill all of its credibility and justification right then and there. The Taiwanese government if it so wishes can simply drag it out, giving the US more time to intervene, should it choose to do so. This is coming from a Taiwanese assumption that the Chinese are not eager to massacre their so-called "brothers". With this mindset surrender is not particularly attractive.
Ultimately, however, despite losing the military advantage of surprise, China gains something important, the ability to project air defense coverage over southern Taiwan, the heartland of the independence movement. I think China would release all civilians it finds in the islands, only holding soldiers captive. That legitimizes the attack, but gives China significant card to play. Also, such a situation would ultimately lead to some kind of international agreement, one China would be able to manipulate as it wished. The ultimate result would be a push for reunification empowered by the U.N., denying Taiwan any hope of independence.
Gollevainen
the lack of innovativenes that I ment comes from the points were you automatically assume that chinese limited and non-superior forces in sea and air can achieve all their rather risky missions without any rebel against Taiwanese side...
Well, as I brought it up a few times I figure I should bring up Operation Focus, the air attack in the Six-Day War that inspired this scenario:
In three main waves of aerial attacks, and several smaller waves in the days following the operation, a total of 452 aircraft were destroyed, most of them on the ground. This left the IAF in almost complete control of the skies, and able to effectively assist the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) ground units.
The astonishing operational success was achieved by concentrating on the initial destruction of the runways with special, rocket assisted cratering bombs, inflicting damage that could not be repaired quickly. Once the runways were disabled, entire air bases' compliments of aircraft were effectively grounded and fell victim to subsequent attack waves, resulting in near-total Israeli air superiority.
The opening stages of Operation Moked were a complete success: Egypt's air force of nearly 500 combat aircraft was destroyed in the space of three hours, with only minor losses to the Israeli Air Force.
The IAF, with 196 combat aircraft at its disposal had prevailed over a coalition with approximately 600 combat aircraft. The IAF destroyed 452 enemy aircraft, including 79 in air combat, while losing only 19 of its own. Many students of Israel's military history regard Operation Moked and the Six Day War as the IDF's finest hour.
Source:
40 years later such an attack could be even more deadly, especially given the large numbers of weapons and aircraft China employs and their ballistic missiles. Including precision-guided munitions it makes the attack even more effective.
Such an attack by the PLAAF could be carried out, like I said, in half an hour and possibly without any aircraft losses for the PLAAF.
