Well I think that what people think about any Taiwan scenario depends on certain assumptions that people make as to whether or not certain things are possible, like the ROCAF being wiped from the skies quickly. I would think that is not possible and have reasons to back that up. Vlad would think that is possible and has reasons to back that up. Now something most of us understand is that military operations and warfare is subject to so many different forces, including dumb luck, that outcomes cannot really be predicted.
Anyway I will AGAIN state what I believe is something that CAN be almost concretely stated about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Of course this is really based on my assumptions about this scenario but to me it makes perfect sense. With a legitimate threat of US intervention in the war, Taiwan has a fighting chance, even a sizeable advantage. But if the US does not intervene and it is obvious that they will not intervene, Taiwan has no chance.
If there is no possibility of US intervention to force the Chinese to mount a massive and quick assault (something they really don't have the ability to do but would have to try because of the "ticking clock") then China could simply do what Vlad explained: blockade, attack outlying islands, use attrition on the ROCAF and force a political solution when the fuel ran out.
If the Chinese leadership believes that it is likely for the US to intervene they have to try to land a large force on the island and crush most resistance before the US can get carriers to the area. Now that would be almost impossible considering other assets the USN/AF could use (SSN, SSGNs, B-2, B-52s, B-1s, F-22s) to delay the Chinese before the carriers arrived. But another possible scenario is debate or vacillation by US leadership, in which case it would still essentially be ROC vs. PRC. I think everyone understands what I'm saying.
So now we must look at what this thread is really about, a Chinese attempt at a major landing on Taiwan. Simply put it cannot be done. Why?
1. Chinese transport capabilites: Gollevainen went over this ad nausem. The PLAN cannot get enough troops on the island quick enough to resist a counterattack on an unsecured beachead. On Omaha Beach, 2 days after the initial landings, there were still German occupied bunkers firing on the Allies. So when the counterattack comes, the Chinese will not be ready, and I find it unlikely that they will have been able to reinforce it (with diminished transport capabilites because of casualties) more than once if at all.
2. Chinese Airborne Troops vs. Taiwanese Defenders: Chinese Airborne troops will be lightly armed, unsupported, forced to defend all sides and will be in combat from the second they take off. ROCAF and SAM units will target the transports, and when they hit the ground they will probably be confronted with low-order reserve units (isn't it called the Freedom Corps in Taiwan-that's what I'm thinking of, or some other National Guard type unit) followed by regiment sized RRU units carried in Clould Leopard AFVs and supported by lighter tanks. Against this will be arrayed-what, 3000 spread out lightly armed paratroopers. These troops could could probably hold out for days but I doubt they could actually capture much territory. And reinforcing will be difficult; landing helicopters and dropping troops directly into the confused 360 degree battle Chinese paratroopers would be facing would be a casualty heavy process, especially with Taiwanese Avengers on the prowl.
3. PLAAF vs. ROCAF: I don't doubt that a PLAAF/2nd Artillery attack on the ROCAF at the very beginning of an invasion attempt would do damage. So the ROCAF would be at a disadvatage from the begining. But if the ROCAF is alerted to possible PLAAF action, as would be likely, the effects would not be nearly as heavy as many claim. Given the state of present PLAAF ability I believe it is very possible for the ROCAF to have quite a few planes in the air ready to meet a 2nd wave of attakers and/or escorted airborne transports. With 400 fighters,the ability to use higways as runways and more AMRAAMs on the way, the ROCAF has the ability fight for days and even use its Harpoons against a PLAN Amphib fleet as they would have to put to see very quickly to take full advantage of the aid provided by Airborne drops etc. The PLAAF vs. ROCAF situation is very similar to the RAF vs. Luftwaffe situation in 1940-its essentially up to the pilots and commanders.
So to me it seems almost impossible for China to quickly push aside the ROCAF and ROCN and land enough troops to resist a counterattack while all the while the are LOSING strength because of ships sunk, airplanes shot down, missles used etc.
However without the threat of US intervention Chinese victory is inevitable because they can take away the defenders advantage from the Taiwanese and wait it out.
