War game scenario's

Vlad Plasmius said:

They don't want to give up on democracy, but they have no desire to see a war in their home. Further some are unable to come to terms with the rapid success as word comes in that ROCA defenders, a brigade of about 5,000, trying to stop the landing Chinese forces have been removed after marines and paratroopers, with support from naval guns and aircraft, were pushed back. The poor defenses were a result of the belief that Chinese troops would be unable to land on that particular shore in any large numbers. This has taken place in the first three hours.

In another region an entire ROCA division surrendered to PLA force advancing on Tainan in central Taiwan and then joined with them, moving to secure the rear to allow PLA forces to push forward to surround the city. In the first twelve hours the PLA was able to almost completely ground the ROCAF

Aftr 12 hours China's forces have grown to tens of thousands. Some 40,000 have been deployed to the main landing point in central Taiwan bolstered by 10,000 ROCA forces who defected to the PLA upon surrender.

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As I have said before, your scenario is wholly unrealistic and would, if attempted, place tens of thousands or more of PRC troops in mortal peril. You propose a wholly unopposed landing, thinking that somehow, majically, the PLAN ships will get to the ROC shores unopposed and land within a few hours more troops than the whole of the PLAN amphibious navy could handle.

The ROC knows what the PLAN and PLA are going to attempt. They have had years to prepare for it. Their equipment is decent, and for the most part modern. Their plans will be inacted and they will have some measure of success.

Your plan depends on the ROC armed forces being so deficient and so inept as to be laughable...and criminally delinquent. They are not. I have known MANY people who have served in the ROC armed forces. Their moral and their attitude is light years away from what you describe. The very idea that in the first 12 hours 10,000 and another entire division of ROC troops would surrender and defect and then take up arms against their own is so preposterous as to be rediculous.

Anyhow, as I have said, we have discussed this ad nauseum. We have an absolute basic disagreement on the facts, the moral, and the capabilities...on both sides. Normally I would have stopped with my last post...but given what you have said here, I felt obligated to reply for the sake of the countering opinion and the many people, particularly young people, who might read this and for an instant think anything like it is possible.

The PLA will face a very serious challenge in attacking the ROC and trying to invade it. The advantage is with the defender, and the ROC has had years to prepare and they will be prepared in ways that you cannot imagine, and that the PLA will take into account and be much, much more respectful and cautious than what you propose. They do not want the straits filled with dead or drowning PLA soldiers. What you propose could very easily, and perhaps would most likely, lead to that very thing.

The logistics of making happen what you propose is HUGE. The movement of men, material, ships, equipemnt, and all of the implements of war to staging areas for such an attack and invasion would be noticed and reported early on...by people on the ground in the PRC and by satellite. The ROC would be prepared and in such a scanrio, for it to occur as rapidly as you propose, the preparation would allow the US to already be on its toes and in a position to counter it with aircraft, submarines, and carriers.

I am not saying the PRC cannot prevail...but they will certainly not prevail in a scenario like this. The could well be slaughtered. No, they will be more patient and go about this in such a way as to minimize telegraphing their intentions and putting their foce at such risk...it is probably years away. And it will require a LOT more buildup and slow preparation on the PRCs part...and even then it will not be a sure thing and they know it.

I am sorry...but that is the hard cold reality.

Finn McCool

No. Read my post. I said that Taiwan doesn't have a chance if China can take its time. Taiwan only has a chance if China has to worry about US intervention; if that is true the only really viable strategy is a quick landing and thus a large landing. Any discussion of what would happen without th threat of US intervention is moot because China would win.

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Exactly, you don't believe a quick landing is possible because you aspire for some three-week scenario that makes the battle more drawn-out and, for you, more acceptable to your view of how warfare should be, rather than how it is. Three weeks is so ridiculously long it's unbelievable. Taiwan is puny and much of its air force and navy would be easily located and their armaments exhausted long before anything close to one week, let alone three.

And that is where we differ: You contend that China has a large advantage in that scenario, I contend they do not. We both have made good cases but we both have made those arguements on different assumptions about the situation. The only one of those that I can argue is that you place too much faith in weapons systems. BMs are not the solution to the ROCAF problem. They certainly help though.

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China does have a large advantage and has had one for some time. China hasn't stayed its hand because of some BS tactical reason. If China wants Taiwan they'll take it tomorrow, but China doesn't want Taiwan that way, because it ruins it. Taiwan is a worthless mudball captive to a dragon's will. At best Taiwan is the injured mouse the kitten likes to play with before eating.

China has enough conventional weaponry in place to demolish Taiwan's entire military. The reason China doesn't is because it's much easier to play the political angle and gain Taiwan with bloodless effort.

The U.S. doesn't want to defend Taiwan, we did once, back when the "threat" of communism actually meant something to some war hawks, apparently more than defending democracy, but now playing up the danger of the ChiComs gets you exactly nowhere.

There is no political or really military will to get seriously involved.

Jeff Head

As I have said before, your scenario is wholly unrealistic and would, if attempted, place tens of thousands or more of PRC troops in mortal peril. You propose a wholly unopposed landing, thinking that somehow, majically, the PLAN ships will get to the ROC shores unopposed and land within a few hours more troops than the whole of the PLAN amphibious navy could handle.

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Actually, I'm pretty sure I mentioned numbers that were will within their capabilities. Maybe you can show me how it isn't.

The ROC knows what the PLAN and PLA are going to attempt. They have had years to prepare for it. Their equipment is decent, and for the most part modern. Their plans will be inacted and they will have some measure of success.

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Sounds like you're just grasping for straws. Having modern equipment and years to prepare for something doesn't mean you're any more likely to succeed.

Your plan depends on the ROC armed forces being so deficient and so inept as to be laughable...and criminally delinquent. They are not. I have known MANY people who have served in the ROC armed forces. Their moral and their attitude is light years away from what you describe. The very idea that in the first 12 hours 10,000 and another entire division of ROC troops would surrender and defect and then take up arms against their own is so preposterous as to be rediculous.

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Admittedly it's a worse-case scenario, but ignoring the possibility is just foolish. I believe refusal to fight is ultimately more likely than outright defection, though I wouldn't rule out the latter.

Here is an interesting poll which, while not dealing directly with the army, does provide some interesting insight into some Taiwanese thinking:



It only takes a few bad apples to ruin the whole barrel right?

You may know "many" in the ROCA, but that doesn't mean you know how all of them will react to a sudden attack with near-certain defeat. Will any actually join in an attack? Possible, I wouldn't put anything beyond anyone involved in such a situation. I certainly think the possibility for desertion or surrender by large numbers is there.

The PLA will face a very serious challenge in attacking the ROC and trying to invade it. The advantage is with the defender, and the ROC has had years to prepare and they will be prepared in ways that you cannot imagine, and that the PLA will take into account and be much, much more respectful and cautious than what you oppose. They do not want the straits filled with dead or drowning PLA soldiers. What you propose could very easily, and perhaps would most likely, lead to that very thing.

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Where's the challenge I ask? I hear the ROC talked up all the time and the PRC downplayed all the time and yet no real evidence is given for either.

The logistics of making happen what you propose is HUGE. The movement of men, material, ships, equipemnt, and all of the implements of war to staging areas for such an attack and invasion would be noticed and reported early on...by people on the ground in the PRC and by satellite. The ROC would be prepared and in such a scanrio, for it to occur as rapidly as you propose, the preparation would allow the US to already be oin its toes and in a position to counter it with aircraft, submarines, and carriers.

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I'm curious, what things have to be moved? You seem to focus a lot on the invasion force, which is just one part of it and the small numbers I mention are certainly possible. As I'm aware China currently also has in the three provinces near Taiwan some 250,000 troops as part of RRUs, which are supposedly able to be ready for deployment in mere days. I'm certain the small numbers I mentioned for the initial attack would be more than able to be deployed without much notice.

No, they will be more patient and go about this in such a way as to minimize telegraphing their intentions and putting their foce at such risk...it is probably years away. And it will require a LOT more buildup and slow preparation on the PRCs part...and even then it will not be a sure thing and they know it.

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You sound like you're stuck in the 1960s honestly. If China waits a few years it will be a sure thing and Taiwan will know it. A few years sees several more squadrons of J-10s, possibly some FC-1s, more Flankers, likely Zubrs, 071s, an aircraft carrier, likely the LS-6 and WS-2, probably a long-range LACM, and an indigenous GPS. A few years means Taiwan is doomed. In a few years Taiwan will be lucky to have the PAC-3s or P-3Cs. Hell, they may only be lucky enough to get the missiles they just ordered.

Jeff said is its kinda well and if you still refuse to accept the laws of reality in your scenario, Then I guess we waste our time to trying to convince you otherwise...

Vlad Plasmius said:

You sound like you're stuck in the 1960s honestly. If China waits a few years it will be a sure thing and Taiwan will know it. A few years sees several more squadrons of J-10s, possibly some FC-1s, more Flankers, likely Zubrs, 071s, an aircraft carrier, likely the LS-6 and WS-2, probably a long-range LACM, and an indigenous GPS. A few years means Taiwan is doomed. In a few years Taiwan will be lucky to have the PAC-3s or P-3Cs. Hell, they may only be lucky enough to get the missiles they just ordered.

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Vlad...my statements are no longer directed at you. It is clear you are absolutely committed to and stuck in your scenario and will not "hear" of anything different. My comments are simply directed at letting others know that what you propose would most likely lead to an unmitigated disaster for the PRC so that any young minds reading it would take pause.

The PRC is clearly building up to try and thwart any ROC independence move, and be in a position at some point to use force of arms to help prevent that if necessary. They are a long ways from being there yet and their own planners know it. I believe they will continue to build and try to avoid a confrontation, while influencing the ROC with the threat of a large missile barrage. That barrage would not do nearly the military damage you propose or think...but it will keep the ROC politicians and people in check (they hope). That is the big card they have. Outside of that, they are not prepared or capable of a massive cross strait invasion big enough to take the island at this point unless...as I said, the ROC is so pathetically delinquent to the point of being criminal, And as I said, having known quite a few of them, they are not in the least that...yet your scenario, in part, actually depends on them being so. Another reason for other readers to realize that such a scanrio is a recipe for disaster.

No offense intended...I know you feel strongly about it. Just trying to pass on good advise and let others know what the other side of this equation is most likely to be.

I'm waiting for the part where you give anything other than your own confused opinion to convince anyone that may not agree with you.

How are they "a long way" from being there? What it will it take for them to be "there"?

Why would my scenario create a "disaster"?

You have provided nothing at all to back up your critiques. You've just expressed your opinion and said nothing else.

I can imagine at least some of where you're coming from, but I can't read your mind. What would be sinking the amphibious fleet and leaving thousands of PLA soldiers drowning in the Straits? The ROCN? The ROCAF? The ROCA?

Who would be doing this and how? Are you factoring in all of the scenario?

I mean, the bit about ballistic missiles is understandable somewhat, I acknowledge their relative inaccuracy, which is why it's a mass attack, not a limited attack. Ballistic missiles may be largely unguided, but it is still possible to make fairly precise strikes with them.

However, did you factor in all other considerations? What limiting factor prevents Soveremnys and Krypton missiles from sinking the Kidds or other air defense ships? How about the air defenses? What will protect them from an ARM strike? What preparations for such an attack could be noticed? Kilos using Klub-S missiles, what effect would that have on the air defense ships? What about Kilos, Yuans, or Songs? Does the ROCN have sonar to detect all of these possible targets? Would the sonar be activated all the time? Would it be able to detect them before they can use torpedoes? How capable would ships be of avoiding torpedoes and all the other anti-ship missiles coming in on them?

You keep attacking my scenario because you don't like it, saying I don't consider the reality. However, do you consider the reality of the ROCA? You say they can last for three weeks, but is that really true? Does the ROCAF and ROCN have enough missiles to stop a large air assault for three weeks? Can they then stop a large naval assault? Would they be able to surround every possible landing point with large numbers of troops, or instead focus on areas they deem most likely?

You give the ROCA some god-like ability to discern the events and counter them, but provide no reason for it.

I'm all for criticism and hearing the other side, but all you're doing is doubting it and using your own opinions. I come from the show-me state so SHOW ME.

Vlad, you need to stop the somewhat insulting remarks. I edited them. Be a gentlemen. bd popeye super moderator

Vlad Plasmius said:

I'm all for criticism and hearing the other side, but all you're doing is doubting it and using your own damn opinions. I come from the show-me state so SHOW ME.

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First, that opinion thingy, that's a very sharp two-edged sword.

Regarding the scenario you postulate, I have explained it to you ad nauseum...but you disagree and do not want to hear it. That's fine. You have your opinion, I have mine.

Logistics will kill your scenario, any sane or halfway valid defense by the ROC will kill your scenario.

You speak of systems, for example ARMs that the PLA has very few of. You speak of Amphibious carry capability of landing 40,000 troops on a hostile shore in twelve hours that the PLAN is not capable of. All of this has been discussed.

You speak of unbelievably horrible moral amongst an armed forces that has understood and been expecting this attack from this particular enemy for years and somehow indicate and count on them not only surrendering en masse when they have the upper hand on defense, but that they then will go over by the thousands to the enemy and help them conquer their own country for crying out loud! I have told you that I personally know many people who have served there. I have spent extended amounts of time there in Taiwan...and what you describe simply is not going to happen at this time or any time soon should the PRC attack.

Those are just some of the issues...but here we go again, discussing them again and we are in the same round-robin. Those falacies alone, when taken as absolute givens and factored into your scenarios such that it depends on them are reason enough to potentially cause the PLA soldiers to be drowning in the Straits.

The ROC will defend itself, many PLAN vessels and ROCN vessels will be sunk, not just ROCN vessels. Many aircraft will be lost, and not just ROCAF aircraft...probably many more PLAAF because they are the ones trying to force the issue and attack an island that is defensively prepared for them regardless of what you think. It is highly unlikely, bordering on impossible, that the PLA could instigate such a huge, massive, lightning invasion without their own logistical buildup being noticed as they staged for it. etc., etc., etc. Yada, yada, yada.

No need to reply...or if you do, I will not reply regarding this again. We've been over this far too many times already. We simply disagree and fundamentally.

I must say you all seem to lack in the one area central to military matters, creativity.

No doubt you know the tech, you know the organization, you know all the useless facts in the world, but neglect the most important aspects of military history.

Operation Focus may have been studied extensively for decades, but so was the blitzkrieg. Does anyone think a blitz in the modern day couldn't succeed?

Generals in the battlefield still use tactics from Alexander the Great. The difference is always how they spin it.

The blitzkrieg is little more than a reworking of the Mongols' use of cavalry in an initial assault. That is no different from the Hittites' use of chariots millenia ago. Countries all over the world from the weakest to the strongest, will still fall for the oldest tricks in the book.

Attack my scenario as outdated or illogical, but that is often what is said of the greatest victories in war.

Tactics is above all the most important aspect of a military. It doesn't matter if you give a monkey a repeating rifle or an M-16, he won't be all that effective with either.

To talk up equipment and all the physical manifestations of the military, but to ignore the centrally-important side of it is just pure reckless ignorance.

My scenario is inspired by Operation Focus, it is not Operation Focus. If a general is inspired by a major failure does that mean the plan will fail? No. It's all about how a person builds on a previous strategy. Being inspired by a major success makes the chances of another success even greater.

I've done my best to present the tactical picture, but it seems you all rather prefer to talk about what you know.

Here is a basic view at Taiwan's tactical picture:









While obviously the naval picture is not clear here, but on land and in air it's obvious what the matter is. The central coastline is sparsely defended. In the air and likely on land. I'm not entirely sure but I believe forces on Taiwan's outlying islands are usually from the central region moreso than the others, unless someone can correct me. This means the central coastline is a glaring weakpoint in air, land and almost definitely sea.

This likely stems from, as the maps show, large mudflats. It is most likely believed that these mudflats make landing unlikely, which, of course, makes it most likely. Landings on mudflats were in fact what made the landings at Normandy and Ingchon so successful. It was the last place the defenders expected to run into a fight. The possibility of China leaking huge disinformation indicating an attack on one of the other points, the ones believed most likely, could further erode the defense in those areas believed unassailable.

As far as mudflats I'd believe most likely the area between Taichung and Tainan County would be the best area. Not to mention the air defenses down in the southern area are so horrid it's intolerable. Southern Taiwan is largely defended by large, static SAM systems. The PLAAF would have little difficulty achieving air supremacy over the southern tip and unlikely it would be that hard to do so in the northern tip either. The central region is easily won over in air supremacy.

The idea that somehow Taiwan would be able to mount some effective air defense with the assets it has is actually what's laughable.

Hmm... what makes you assert so strongly that the central west coast of Taiwan is weak? The fact that that Chiayi and Hsinchu seem so far away from Ching Chuan Kang/Taichung?

Here's a hint. Flying a straight line...

Hsinchu is less than 50 miles away from Taichung.
Chiayi is roughly 50 miles away from Taichung.
Hualien is 60 miles away from Taichung.

Sparsely defended, I say.

How long does it take for an F-16 or Mirage 2000 to be within firing range of their AIM-120s and Micas? As you noted many times, Taiwan is friggin' small. That means you can't expect to attack a "weak point" by air and not expect a response and backup from other airfields, unless you already knocked all of them out. The map you have without distance is deceptive.

Or were you not talking about overwhelming the "weak point" by air?

Those maps you linked to... notice something missing? Yeah. Army bases. Primarily situated on the west coast. But then again in your scenario the ROCA isn't even worth talking about.

There is a reason why Taiwan is intimidated by China's new carrier, and that's because it can launch attacks from the east coast. They are fully prepared to defend against the west as best they can with what they have (which may or may not be enough), but not the east.

If I'm curt it's because you insist on loading the dice in China's favor, which it certainly is though not in the ways you have done. Fact of the matter is none of us reliably know what might happen. The ballistic missiles may get lucky and do significant damage in vital areas of airfields. Maybe they won't. Taiwan's soldiers may betray their comrades-in-arms, friends, and family. Maybe they won't. The government may hold out and refuse to surrender. Maybe they won't.

People are telling you that "maybe they won't" deserves a bit more credit than you give. Your scenarios are good up to the point where they assume that the morale of Taiwanese troops is disgustingly low. Maybe that's true and your scenario will be validated. Maybe that's false and our beliefs will be validated. Just don't try to keep pushing it as gospel truth. There's a probability that your scenario is correct, but is is definitely not 1, neither is it zero.

You mention some very interesting points Zergling and your description of Taiwan's vulnerabilities is quite convincing.
Another ´weak link´in Taiwan's defense chain seems to be the area around Gaoxiong/Kaoshiung at the southern tip of the island. Gaoxiong is the main container port of Taiwan and correspondingly the place has an extended transportation infrastructure. Perhaps a kind of combined amphibious and airborne commando raid operation would be able to establish a bridgehead if the area (the new container port is a giant structure certainly not planned with military considerations in mind!) is not well defended and ROCA has no armoured reserves immediately (within 12 hours!) at hand.

How is your opinion dear Zergling, is a raid on Gaoxiong possible or would PLA commandos only be bottled up down there without being able to operate effectively?

P.S.: Recently there were ´nasty rumours´around in Hong Kong that dozens of ROCA generals and other high ranking officers have password coded accounts in some Hong Kong banks. Nevertheless I am convinced that those little hidden stashes only reflect the high confidence of ROCA's honourable men in the prosperous stability of the Mainland and that there is nothing really ´nasty´ about it!

Violet Oboe said:

You mention some very interesting points Zergling and your description of Taiwan's vulnerabilities is quite convincing.
Another ´weak link´in Taiwan's defense chain seems to be the area around Gaoxiong/Kaoshiung at the southern tip of the island. Gaoxiong is the main container port of Taiwan and correspondingly the place has an extended transportation infrastructure. Perhaps a kind of combined amphibious and airborne commando raid operation would be able to establish a bridgehead if the area (the new container port is a giant structure certainly not planned with military considerations in mind!) is not well defended and ROCA has no armoured reserves immediately (within 12 hours!) at hand.

How is your opinion dear Zergling, is a raid on Gaoxiong possible or would PLA commandos only be bottled up down there without being able to operate effectively?

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Huh. I was under the impression that my post was pointing out how Taiwan might NOT be as vulnerable as portrayed. (You sure you didn't mean to say Vlad?) Ah well, all in the eyes of the beholder. Kaoshiung is indeed arguably one of the biggest centers for trade and transportation, although it can be argued that Taichung Harbor is pretty important too. As for taking over the port through military action...

Well the mission goal is basically the same as any other invasion of Taiwan. Either do it by sea or by air. What is feasible then is feasible for this. The easiest scenario I can think of is having container ships filled with Chinese marines invading the Taichung harbor. This perhaps seems quite far-fetched and dangerous for the PLA, but it is one reason why Taiwan is reluctant to allow direct sea shipping between the two states, in particular those of large scale.

If China wanted to initiate a surprise raid on Kaoshiung or Taichung port they would have to find a way to keep other ships out of it, which would certainly involve disrupting busy shipping lanes and what not. That's a dilemma, if you spend time to minimize unwanted collateral damage from ships arriving or departing for other nations you lose the advantage of surprise. If you ignore that... it's certainly bad PR when a France container ship gets blown up by Chinese bombs in a Taiwanese port.

There doesn't appear to be any significant transportation advantage towards taking Kaoshiung, as the most efficient mode of transportation in Taiwan is either by train or by the highways. I wouldn't expect trains to continue functioning during invasion, much less for Chinese troops so that doesn't work. If you took Taichung there are roads that can go all over Taiwan. If you take Hsinchu there are roads that can go all over Taiwan... there isn't much of a point of taking Kaoshiung just for that.