Ukrainian War Developments

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pmc

Major
Registered Member
(Assuming that the intel is true) I think its fair to say that the Intel leak is from the Russian side.

We started having intel reports about Russian Ukraine intentions from Spring last year. Then there was the whole end-of-year until war started where intel was leaking like crazy by the Russian side
it is not some hidden thing. for over a year permanent equipment was moved there. Putin wanted public attention to raise prices of commodities. he met publicly with tactical corporation CEO. its very rare case during pandemic meet a person lower in corporate structure and he remind him of Erdogan. and that person boasted earlier of about $4b revenues at than exchange rate. $4B revenue your looking at minimum 20,000 PGMs and cruise missiles per year.

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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Just a reminder, only trained paratrooper could fold a parachute, and during the folding process everyone needs to check the condition of the parachute,coording and backpack. It is not a factory made thingy that came in a box , you pick it up and jump from the aircraft with it.
Yeah. I will add that so far I did not even see any evidence of Russian paratrooper drops with parachute.
It seems to all have been done with helicopter troop inserts.

I am also still waiting for photos of the wrecks of those mythical Il-76s the Ukrainians claim to have shot down. There is reliable information the Russians tried to land hardware with the Il-76 at Gostomel Airport but no evidence any were shot down.

As for the drones, if I remember correctly, the Azerbaijani military's drones were mainly operated by Turkish personal. Assuming this claim is true, Chinese personal would have to operate them unless the Russian military have been secretly training people to operate Chinese drones.
There is no way the Russians would have the time to train drone operators with Chinese military drone equipment. I agree.
The talk about buying PGM is also bunk. AFAIK the Chinese and Russian avionics for weapon systems are not even compatible.
Some Chinese aircraft can use Russian weapons but the converse is not true. Retrofitting support for foreign weapons into an aircraft is not trivial. There is no software support for the Chinese weapons in Russian fighters and from what I know even the physical layer interface of both aircraft is not the same.

Why is importing more food from West a bad idea? It was one of the few ways for China to import more and not have that level of bullseye. They can always export more of their own production or import more from other countries in the event of a sanction.
Well China imported food from the West because they needed to get something from the West in return for all the crap they produce for them. Since high technology imports are being restricted things like food were the only thing they had left. Otherwise when Uncle Sam defaults on its debt by "confiscating" Chinese held US treasuries and dollar reserves, or assets abroad, like they did with Russia, Venezuela, etc, you will end up as a sucker who worked for free for Uncle Sam.
 

weig2000

Captain
This analysis is truly awful, not least of all in the simply laughable notion that, by abandoning Russia, China would dampen the anti-China shift in the USA and elsewhere. What does the author imagine is driving current USA-China dynamics? It is certainly not the "democracy vs. autocracy" framework that is fed to the western masses and is apparently reproduced in the author's argument. It is fundamentally about the threat that the rise of China poses to American hegemony, a threat that would exist irrespective of China's form of government and irrespective of its relations with other nations. There are meaningful nuances within this dynamic, and within these nuances lie the prospects for war and peace, prosperity and suffering, but the basic dynamic of increasing tension can only be resolved by winding the clock back on generations of Chinese progress.

What is the worst-case scenario for China in this crisis? It is a collapse of the current Russian regime and its replacement with a US puppet regime that will complete the encirclement of China. China's efforts must be directed to avoiding such an outcome, which in practice means mitigating against the collapse of the present regime. That does not mean unconditional support for Russia, it does not mean that China cannot play a "constructive" role in managing the present crisis, nor does it mean that China has an interest in Putin, specifically, surviving, but it certainly means that China should not "stab Russia in the back".

EDIT: It if were actually true that, by "stabbing Russia in the back", China could significantly defuse escalating tensions with the USA even if only temporarily (say, for the next 15 years) and roll back unwelcome developments such as the "Quad", restrictions on technology imports/exports/etc. then China's path would be clear: stab Russia in the back. But the notion is simply ludicrous. The world does not work that way. At best, the enemy of my enemy is tolerated until I can get around to stabbing them in the back as well.

Precisely.

That piece of analysis is so awful and laughable (allow me to repeat your words since I couldn't find better ones). It felt like part of US/West propaganda. Indeed, with die has been cast with regards to the relationship with Russia and the fall of Ukraine is only a matter of time, the US has started to shift its attention to China, because it knows that China is the real enemy and how long the Russia can sustain largely depends on how far China would go in support of Russia. To start, its weapon is, again, disinformation and threat of sanction.

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Earlier, some disinformation has been planted that China had asked Russia to postpone the military operation after the Beijing Winter Olympics, Now it is that Russia had asked Chinese military support. Step-by-step, it is trying to implicate China and potentially leverage the out-of-control rage against Russia in the West. We're going to see more of these stupid, low-class propaganda and disinformation campaign against China (and Russia obviously). It doesn't matter though, much of the western populace are deeply brainwashed and much of the opposing or even dissent views are either censored or deplatformed.
 

yongpengsuen

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think air strikes can be replaced by Zala recon / lazing drones + Krasnopol laser guided artillery rounds for smaller targets and Kh-101 air launched cruise missiles carried on Tu-95MS and Tu-160 bombers for larger targets. This mean no pilot will ever lose their lives.
 
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