Talking of credentials, Hu Wei has more than any commentator here in respect of the subject matter of his article. The header has been updated:
Update on March 13, 2022: The following article was submitted by the author to the of the US-China Perception Monitor. The article was not commissioned by the US-China Perception Monitor, nor is the author affiliated with the Carter Center or the US-China Perception Monitor.
Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor’s Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor. To read more by Hu, to read his article on “How did Deng Xiaoping coordinate domestic and international affairs?”
So not originally written in "think tank English".
I have to say, for someone with such a long list of credentials, his article reads like the weekend homework assignment of a high school student. If this is the calibre of the advisors affiliated with the State Council, then we should be very worried about the future of Chinese foreign policy.
I won't go into detail about everything wrong with the commentary, but the cardinal sin of foreign policy analysis (or IR analysis in general) is to make too many assumptions, especially assumptions that are overly broad and unsupported by theory.
This text is an example of how analysis
should not be done. It is layered with assumptions on top of assumptions trying to predict the unpredictable, devoid of even the most basic theoretical framework to tie them together. For example:
Vladimir Putin may be unable to achieve his expected goals...
The conflict may escalate further, and the West’s eventual involvement in the war cannot be ruled out... war may escalate beyond the scope and region of Ukraine, and may even include the possibility of a nuclear strike...
Russia would thereafter carry a heavy burden and become overwhelmed... Ukraine will most likely set up a government-in-exile... The battle lines will be drawn very long...
The hope of Russia’s victory is slim... the possibility of a political mutiny in Russia cannot be ruled out... If Putin were to be ousted from power...
That's only the first section of the article and I shall not continue.
Without wasting words attempting to refute this poor excuse of an "analysis," my opinion is that we should resign the article, and its author, to the dustbin. If even an undergraduate IR student tried to submit this as part of an assignment, he should instantly be failed.
