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Ukraine should have had no chance against Russia. But Russia gifted them half a chance with its botched military modernisation reforms and earlier strategic blunders. But with leadership like that, the Ukrainians are repaying the Russians back with interest and now the Russians are having a much easier war than they should given their aforementioned issues and the vast resources and special forces NATO have been pumping into Ukraine to prop up their war efforts.
Rather than bleed the Russians, Ukraine is turning into a total haemorrhage for NATO in terms of arms, supplies and economic output. If this war drags on for years like NATO fan clubs are wet dreaming, by the time Russia has swallowed all of Ukraine, they will be able to just keep stroll through the rest of Europe and there won’t be much left to stop them.
Realistically, Russia doesn't have the strength to take Western Ukraine, nevermind the rest of Europe.
Some very influential people in US politics have long held the position that Ukraine is a so called pivot state. If they dislodge it from the Russian sphere of influence, Russia will cease to be an Eurasian power and will be downgraded to a largely Asian power.The causes and consequences of the Ukraine war A lecture by John J. Mearsheimer
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This video reenforces my early judgement that it is a protracted war of attrition.
Mearsheimer hits a good point in that the Biden admin has been building up the political environment in the US such that there is very little room to back down in the war. Therefore, this war is officially a proxy war. It is existential on one side, while it is maintaining hegemony on the other side.
As I stated at the beginning phase of this war, if this war goes on for 3 years, EU would be diminished to a point where it would no longer be a peer to US or China. If this war goes on for 5 years, west would be east while east would be west.
So people would naturally ask why the US going that way in the first place? Well, like the great dynasties before, once you have been hegemony, you would not want otherwise. Hence history never repeats; it only rhymes.
Some very influential people in US politics have long held the position that Ukraine is a so called pivot state. If they dislodge it from the Russian sphere of influence, Russia will cease to be an Eurasian power and will be downgraded to a largely Asian power.
⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine ( June 27, 2022)
Part 1 (read part 2)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.
On June 26, Russian Aerospace Forces launched 4 high-precision air-based missiles at the workshops of Artyom missile corporation located in Shevchenkovsky district of Kiev. This enterprise produced ordnance for Ukrainian multiple rocket-launching systems (MRLS).
According to live recording data, all of the 4 missiles have reached the target. The facility has been neutralised. Civilian infrastructure of Kiev has not been affected by high-precision armament.
Kiev regime attempted to intercept Russian high-precision missiles by the means of air defence deployed in the city. Ukrainian S-300 and Buk-M1 air defence system crews had launched over 10 air defence missiles.
Due to lack of interoperability between the launching ramps of the air defence systems and electronic facilities deployed in residential areas, 2 S-300 air defence missiles have been intercepted by Ukrainian Buk systems. One of the intercepted air defence missiles has presumably fallen down to a residential building.
Ukrainian command is trying to stop the chaotic escape of Ukrainian servicemen near Lisichansk amid the success of Russian army within liberating Donbass.
A Right Sector Nazi barrier unit was sent to hold the personnel of the first battalion from 72nd mechanised brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) near Volcheyarovka. Russian artillery has eliminated this unit.
The Ukrainian troops involved in operation towards Lisichansk are no longer controlled. Commander of 115th Independent Mechanised Brigade of the AFU who deployed its command post in the rear area has lost control over his units that caused losing 80 percent of manpower and about 70 percent of equipment of 138th Battalion from this brigade during operations.
On June 26, Russian units eliminated 2 sabotage and reconnaissance groups of mercenaries formed by 14 militants during the combats that took place 3 km from Lisichansk oil refinery (Lugansk People's Republic).
The first group was international and consisted of citizens from various European countries. The second was formed by mercenaries only from Georgia who were parts of the so-called Georgian Legion.
This armed group is mostly composed of criminals. The eliminated Georgian mercenaries were involved in the brutal torture and murder of Russian servicemen near Kiev in March this year.
Russian Defence Ministry has information about each mercenary involved in torturing and murdering out servicemen. We have found and punished them.
#MoD #Russia #Ukraine
@mod_russia_en
⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine ( June 27, 2022)
Part 2 (read part 1)
❗️ Russian Federation Armed Forces continue launching attacks at military facilities located in Ukraine.
High-precision armament of Russian Aerospace Forces has neutralised the base of 106th Battalion from 63rd Mechanised Infantry Brigade of the AFU near Visunsk (Nikolayev region). Over 40 Ukrainian servicemen and 12 units of military equipment have been eliminated.
Attacks have also resulted in the elimination of AFU manpower and military equipment in 27 areas, including those that formed part of the Right Sector near Lisichansk, as well as those of Azov and Kraken near Kharkov.
5 AFU command posts and 3 munitions, missile and artillery armament depots have been neutralised near Bereznegovatoye (Nikolayev region) and Novodruzhesk (Lugansk People's Republic).
Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised: 24 command posts, artillery and mortar units in 58 areas, as well as manpower and military equipment in 304 areas.
Within the counter-battery warfare towards Donetsk, high-precision armament of Russian Aerospace Forces has neutralised: 3 Grad MRLS plattoons near Avdeyevka and Dzerzhinsk, a plattoon of M-777 155-mm howitzers near Konstantinovka, 2 Giatsint 152-mm howitzer plattoons near Kalinov and Artyomovo, as well as 2 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system plattoons near Ocheretino and Novolugansk that had been launching attacks at Donetsk and othe cities of the Donetsk People's Republic.
Russian air defence means have destroyed 10 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Noviy Burluk, Arkushino, Kurulka, Semyonovka, Chervoniy Shakhtyor, Ternovaya (Kharkov region), Chernobayevka (Kherson region), Shcherbakovo (Zaporozhye region) and Petrovenki (Lugansk People's Republic).
2 Tochka-U tactical missiles have been intercepted near Kakhovka (Kherson region), as well as 1 MRLS rocket over Snake Island.
In total, 215 airplanes and 132 helicopters, 1,373 unmanned aerial vehicles, 350 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,830 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 684 combat vehicles equipped with multiple rocket-launching systems, 3,025 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 3,870 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
#MoD #Russia #Ukraine
@mod_russia_en
Apparently this is actually true. I thought it was too crazy to believe at first.Due to lack of interoperability between the launching ramps of the air defence systems and electronic facilities deployed in residential areas, 2 S-300 air defence missiles have been intercepted by Ukrainian Buk systems. One of the intercepted air defence missiles has presumably fallen down to a residential building.
A somber report from CNN on Ukraine and a farewell to Soviet era ammo (outside Russia)
“White House officials are losing confidence that all of the land it has lost to Russia over the past four months of war, US officials told CNN, even with the heavier and more sophisticated weaponry the US and its allies plan to send.
Advisers tointernally how and whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should shift his definition of a Ukrainian "victory" -- adjusting for the possibility that his country has shrunk irreversibly.”
There’s no strategic value in taking Western Ukraine. That’s why the Russians have made no moves there save for some missile strikes.It wasn't just the botched modernisation reforms to make Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) the smallest independent unit.
Note how the US and China (along with most other countries) have settled on the Brigade as the smallest independent unit.
By categorising Ukraine as a Special Military Operation, it meant conscripts couldn't be deployed.
That gutted the infantry elements in each BTG.
Realistically, Russia doesn't have the strength to take Western Ukraine, nevermind the rest of Europe.