The War in the Ukraine

Soldier30 said:

Footage of a Russian FPV drone from the 85th Brigade striking a Ukrainian drone control center located in an underground shelter. The video, filmed near Nikonorovka, shows a Ukrainian operator launching the drone. It's worth noting that Ukrainian drone operators are currently a priority target for both Russian aviation and artillery.

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The Russian drones in the air are so dense, just to take a sneak peek means instant death.


They are everywhere.


Ukrainian shelters and UAV control points get spotted and immediately attacked by Russian drones and artillery in the Group South area of responsibility.

tamsen_ikard said:

This is a very shallow analysis of Economics and Geopolitics. EU is losing industrial market share to China because of Chinese competence, not just because of high energy cost. EU is the ultimate project of the Western empire. Its not gonna collapse Just cause they have few industries losing money.

Japan has seen stagnation and literal economic decline for 50 years, they have lost even more industry to China. Did they become any less radicalized and pro china? Nope they became even more anti-China.

EU will not become pro-Russia just cause they see economic decline for a few quarters, they will most likely double, triple down.

Again, its chump change for EU to supply Ukraine with 100 billion every year. Once Trump is gone, US will again double, tripple down on Ukraine and supply another 100 billion.

EU willingness to fight Russia will never stop in the next 20 years. It will only escalate further. They feel they are winning and have a very good shot at collapsing Russia using this war. They are salivating right now. They will only become even more desperate and invest more.

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You have a fair point about the very realistic chances of the EU doubling down on their mistakes instead of correcting course.

However the EU is not a monolithic bloc on this. The UK, Poland, Finland and the Baltics will be as you describe (Ukraine is not managing the Poland relationship all the well apparently), but Spain and Italy are less interested in the outcome of the war. France and Germany are actually really close to 50-50 on caring if Ukraine wins. Their people are also used to a higher standard of living compared to Russians and are less tolerant of economic downturn before running to the alt-right. I can see the AfD and Marine Le Pen enjoying popularity increases when the economy goes bad. It doesn't mean they are pro-Russia, just are not in the pro-war neolib establishment.




Economically, I'm afraid it's much worse than what you describe. It's not just a few industries losing money, it's a seismic shift when European industry simply are no longer competitive due to both energy cost and Chinese competition with access to cheap energy. It doesn't necessarily mean everything will crash, but it is a path towards terminal decline with no means of recovery. EU is also currently on the path of being antagonistic towards all three: the US, Russia and China.


The US is actually the one who screwed over the EU the most strategically since the end of the Cold War. Your claim about the EU being the highlight of Western empire seem naive. The Western imperial core post WW2 is primarily American + Five Eyes, who openly spy on non anglo EU countries. The EU itself formed to be competitive and autonomous vs. the US and USSR, and actually is the primary competitor to the US post Soviet collapse on the world stage. The US has no qualms to actively acts contrary to EU interests both now and back then when it did not hesitate to dismantle the British and French colonial empires post WW2.

Anyway, EU countries are also already heavily indebted running large deficits. The welfare states are under immense pressure, with the need to re-arm while also suffering from de-industrialization. I wouldn't be surprised if within the next decade, France and Germany themselves will have trouble actually paying out retirement checks to their own boomers retiring en masse.

We already see reduction in aid from individual EU countries to Ukraine reported in this thread.

The comparison with Japan is interesting, there are some similarities with how the US set them up as colonies, however I don't think fully applies since the EU is much larger and actually perfectly capable of being its own power bloc, it just chose not to, whereas Japan could never really chose. Both can absolutely continue to double down on the path to war and ruin.

Russia has changed its strike tactics, according to Le Monde.


"Russia has changed the tactics of strikes on Ukraine, which has greatly reduced the effectiveness of the air defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces - Le Monde

↓Since the end of May, Kyiv has been regularly hit by ballistic missiles and new jet drones of the «Geran» type. At the same time, on the night of July 6, and then on the morning of July 11, Ukrainian air defense allegedly failed to intercept any of the ballistic missiles fired at Kyiv.
↓The Ukrainian side connects the situation with the shortage of interceptor missiles for Patriot anti-aircraft systems.
↓Special attention is paid to the new jet drones «Geran». According to Ukrainian Armed Forces representative Yuri Ignat, they already make up up up to 25–30% of Russian attack UAVs. Due to their greater speed, altitude and range, they are significantly more difficult to intercept compared to previous modifications.
↓Russian troops have changed the principle of constructing air attacks. If previously the strikes were distributed over time, now the main task has become the simultaneous use of a large number of missiles and drones to reload the Ukrainian air defense system and quickly expend stockpiles of anti-missile missiles.
↓Due to the increasing frequency of air strikes, Kyiv residents are increasingly spending their nights in the subway, underground shelters, cars and basements, monitoring reports of air raids and the movement of Russian weapons."

Placed on the wanted list is the commander of the AFU 155th Brigade, who also used to be the chief of staff of the 425th 'Scala'.

"The commander of the 155th Mechanical Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was put on the wanted list after the kidnapping of civilians in the Kyiv region

↓The commander of the 155th separate mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Stanislav Luchanov, left his place of service without permission and was put on the wanted list.
↓This happened after the detention of military personnel of his unit as part of a criminal investigation into the kidnapping of two civilians in the Kyiv region.
↓According to the investigation, on the night of June 28, a group of seven people took two brothers out of their home in an unknown direction. Relatives say the whereabouts of the men remain unknown to this day.
↓Nine servicemen of the 155th brigade, including one of the battalion commanders, were detained on suspicion of involvement in the abduction. Stanislav Luchanov himself is wanted by law enforcement agencies.
↓Luchanov led the 155th Separate Mechanized Brigade in February 2026. Before that, he served as chief of staff of the 425th «Skel» Regiment, which had previously been at the center of a scandal after reports of abuse of recruits.
↓In May, a video of a serviceman of the 155th brigade circulated on social networks beats related colleague. Then Luchanov stated that he had nothing to do with what happened and condemned such actions."

Fuel situation on Crimea is improving, but prices remain high.

"The fuel situation in Crimea is improving

↓IN Fuel has appeared on free sale in Crimea at 99 gas stations, the Ministry of Fuel and Energy reported on July 11.
↓Fuel is available for free sale at gas stations in Simferopol, Yalta, Feodosia, Yevpatoria, Kerch, Alushta and smaller cities, villages and regions of Crimea.
↓In Sevastopol on the village 10:00 at 9 gas stations «ATAN» in FREE sale of AI-95 Ultra and DT Ultra fuel.
↓At the same time, prices at private gas stations remain very high."

Geran-4s with jets and optics strike cargo ships and ferries in the port of Chernomorsk in the Odessa sector. A seiner is said to be used for dropping USVs.


Gerans with optics struck a gas distribution center in Kramatorsk.


Gerans with optics struck a warehouse used for storing drones and it's components. Chernihiv region.


Gas stations hit by jet Gerans in Slavyansk.


Bachivisk has fallen to the Group North of forces.


Fuel and lubricant centers in Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporyzhia hit by Gerans with optical seekers.


Ukrainian air defense command got destroyed, which can explain its poor performance as of late.


Yolka interceptors hitting drones, covering the P280 highway.


New BMP-3 2026 edition, featuring additional armor on the top, hatches, and sides, a new video camera for the driver, but lost the connecting support of the 30mm 2A72 gun to the 100mm 2A70 cannon.


Machine Gunner fail.

Russian military personnel released footage of a Ukrainian FPV drone attacking a vehicle. The drone was in standby mode. A Russian MP-155 smoothbore semi-automatic rifle was used to destroy the FPV drone. The location of the footage has not been disclosed.


MP-155 Shotgun Technical Information

Caliber 12/76 and 12/89
Weight (chamber 12/76): 3.15 kg
Weight (chamber 12/89): 3.25 kg
Barrel Length 610 / 710 / 750 mm
Overall Shotgun Length (710 mm Barrel): 1260 mm
Overall Shotgun Length (750 mm Barrel): 1300 mm
Magazine Capacity (12/76): 4+1 rounds
Magazine Capacity (12/89): 3+1 rounds
Operating Principle: Gas-operated
Receiver: Aluminum alloy B95
Muzzle Constriction: Interchangeable (Chokes)
Year of Production: 2011
Manufacturer: Izhevsk Machine Building Plant (Baikal), a concern Kalashnikov

RavenClaws said:

You have a fair point about the very realistic chances of the EU doubling down on their mistakes instead of correcting course.

However the EU is not a monolithic bloc on this. The UK, Poland, Finland and the Baltics will be as you describe (Ukraine is not managing the Poland relationship all the well apparently), but Spain and Italy are less interested in the outcome of the war. France and Germany are actually really close to 50-50 on caring if Ukraine wins. Their people are also used to a higher standard of living compared to Russians and are less tolerant of economic downturn before running to the alt-right. I can see the AfD and Marine Le Pen enjoying popularity increases when the economy goes bad. It doesn't mean they are pro-Russia, just are not in the pro-war neolib establishment.

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Economically, I'm afraid it's much worse than what you describe. It's not just a few industries losing money, it's a seismic shift when European industry simply are no longer competitive due to both energy cost and Chinese competition with access to cheap energy. It doesn't necessarily mean everything will crash, but it is a path towards terminal decline with no means of recovery. EU is also currently on the path of being antagonistic towards all three: the US, Russia and China.

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The US is actually the one who screwed over the EU the most strategically since the end of the Cold War. Your claim about the EU being the highlight of Western empire seem naive. The Western imperial core post WW2 is primarily American + Five Eyes, who openly spy on non anglo EU countries. The EU itself formed to be competitive and autonomous vs. the US and USSR, and actually is the primary competitor to the US post Soviet collapse on the world stage. The US has no qualms to actively acts contrary to EU interests both now and back then when it did not hesitate to dismantle the British and French colonial empires post WW2.

Anyway, EU countries are also already heavily indebted running large deficits. The welfare states are under immense pressure, with the need to re-arm while also suffering from de-industrialization. I wouldn't be surprised if within the next decade, France and Germany themselves will have trouble actually paying out retirement checks to their own boomers retiring en masse.

We already see reduction in aid from individual EU countries to Ukraine reported in this thread.

The comparison with Japan is interesting, there are some similarities with how the US set them up as colonies, however I don't think fully applies since the EU is much larger and actually perfectly capable of being its own power bloc, it just chose not to, whereas Japan could never really chose. Both can absolutely continue to double down on the path to war and ruin.

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Wrong the EU runs a trade surplus of almost $140 a year(true, nowhere as big as a behemoth like China) . It’s just that they like to hype the Chinese surplus for their own geopolitical and trade negotiating power while hiding the fact that they have a trade surplus overall. Never take the their word for the truth , research deeply to make an independent conclusion .


anyway, the biggest lesson from this conflict is that no power should ever underestimate their opponents. Even more so when that opponents believes it’s fighting for her own survival as a nation state itself, reason Ukraine has been so resilient and motivated in fighting because they believe it’s the state of the country itself which is at stake , else Russia would have won long ago easily like they did after annexing Crimea from Ukraine, Ukrainians didn’t see it as an existential crisis then, but Russia’s mistake was getting too overconfident after Crimea , thinking they could achieve the same thing by taking over Ukraine itself . Big mistake there and miscalculation by Putins advisors , they are paying dearly for that today .
It’s abit similar to Chinas situation before the full scale war with Japan. Japan initially basically annexed Manchuria from China without much pushback from China back then since the Chinese government didn’t see it as an existential crisis itself for the country like Russia did with Crimea without much pushback from Ukraine. However the moment they launched a full scale assault to bring China under their control/sphere then the Chinese nationalist government was left with no choice than to fight to the death (they even had to put aside their much deeper enmity with the opposition rebel party CCP ) since it was an existential crisis for their survival itself . The Japanese also thought like the Russians since they both had far superior firepower that it would be a few months campaign but we all know how that turned out and how it’s playing out today as well.
Anyway, another lesson is that Ukrainian will keep fighting since they know it’s in their territory and they have support of the EU and US (to a lesser extent) . Russia would have to agree to some sort of seize-fire at some point . Since they can’t keep fighting like this and suffering this losses forever . Ukraine doesn’t have as much to lose as Russia to be honest. Since Ukraine wa a never a wealthy country who aspires to be a world power unlike Russia who has far greater ambitions . So getting bocked down in such a war and all the human and financial losses Russia is accumulating doesn’t serves her strategic interests in the long run to be honest. Just like the US getting bocked down and all the losses and capital spent in such wars(wars are the most expensive business around after all) didn’t serve US long term interests which they themselves now recognize today.
in this regard, China since Deng xiaoping a ideology has been the smartest and most restrained world power avoiding any provocation to get into a conflict which could have sabotaged her growth momentum, and there have been are still lots of provocations Chinas has faced/is facing but the CCP leadership has been so restrained and smart in managing them peacefully without resorting to war. lukashenko in a visit to China recently and also to attend his so. Graduation ceremony in China himself said the same thing and has started looking at the Chinese model as a good example away from the more belligerent Russian/western model/thinking they have always had. Reason he sent his son to study in China not Russia unlike in the past.

Very interesting times we are living in. This coming decades will be really interesting to watch as the world power balance and interests changes . Chinas model might be more studied and emulated by other countries in future , who knows . I actually think it will be a good thing overall for mankind .

tamsen_ikard said:

not just because of high energy cost.

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RavenClaws said:

You have a fair point about the very realistic chances of the EU doubling down on their mistakes instead of correcting course.

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If I may Chime in, youtube Patrick Boyle's last two videos are a good overall EU situation info dump, In the 'European cars' video he shares a stat from a study about germany and the big causes for its decline in past 5 years.

But TLDV
40% due to energy costs alone, 20% bureaucracy other system hurdles = 60% of the issue was their own making.
20% was Chinese competition and 20% falling behind newer demands of the market overseas.

EU as a whole regardless of country will double down about Russia, yes even places like Italy, Why? Because it gives them reason to move public wealth/money from public programs into private defense firms like in usa and help their elites. This is beyond the need for 're-arm' because US cant be relied upon, they all want their own MiC model.

Havnt you noticed germany and uk talking about draft in some capacity? its the same, it allows them more control over populace as standard of living falls further in the continent overall.

Patrick Boyle cites Pettis and Setser. He's a smooth talking dumbass.

Another 14 ships struck in a single day. Total over 90 since just a week ago

"n total, between July 6 and 13, units of the Unmanned Systems Forces struck 90 vessels of russia’s shadow fleet.

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Geran-4 "Seekers" using AI optical guidance, struck port near Odessa, targeting superstructures of ships. In particular of note was a seiner used for launching sea drones. Geran Seekers have been going after Ukrainian infrastructure with precision strikes all across the front and behind it.


Russian FPV drones going after Ukrainian hexacopters, ground drones and pickups. One of the pickups looks like a new Mitsubishi Triton, and Tritons have been popular for military use, which sort of leads into my mind that they're even better than Toyotas and Nissan's in this application.