I think Odessa can eventually be taken say 10 years from now when 10 million Ukrainian men have been killed, maimed, captured in the east and there is no more Ukrainian men left to defend Odessa.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
I think Odessa can eventually be taken say 10 years from now when 10 million Ukrainian men have been killed, maimed, captured in the east and there is no more Ukrainian men left to defend Odessa.
Black Shark
Junior Member
You are confusing unwillingness for total full power blow on Ukraine with lack of might. Ukraine has the mightiest army of entire PONOS countries (Pact-of-NATO-Offensive-Sattelites) and is destroying it slowly with merely 130.000 soldiers, older generation technology with some exception in Attack Helicopters, PGMs, ATGMs and Artillery ammunition like Krasnopol. It could defeat and control of the territory with the current contigent if it would like to go the US route and blow everything to small pieces by carpet bombing and FOABing every city and would minimize it's own losses even more, but would destroy their own civilian population and create a huge problem for their own.
There are less civilian deaths than military deaths, which is unseen in any war of the past 100 years or more.
Russia certainly will not give France, Poland or Czechs this friendly treatment. It will barrage them to 19th century if they decide it is necessary and the US will not do anything besides more talking, sanctions that are only blowing back but will not dare to launch nukes, they will not die for their dogs. No owner who raises dogs and treats them badly will cry for them. That is exactly what all NATO members are, disposable war dogs! In reality majority are just chihuahuas who can only bark. Turkey is doing a very sovereign policy and are calculating who will win and they are not stupid nor affected by western MSM lobotomization. They will be the first to drop NATO membership if not Poland.
Russia could take half Europe without much of a hassle as only Poland has some logistics and forces, which they are already depleting for a country that is much stronger than Poland but still very weak.
It is a very simple calculation. Countries with no PGMs and logistics let alone a functioning army with moral against a superpower that has all the technologies there are. It won't matter if Russia kills Poland with T72B3 or T14, they have no chance nor their Leo2A4s.
Besides Poland there is no PONOS country with any mentionworthy military capability.
Russia is approaching Kiev's proxy regime the way it does, because it is a neighbouring country and like Napoleon said, Geography is destiny. You don't choose your neighbours and you certainly do not create foreign policy against your neighbours without facing the consequences. Russia has to live with all territories and people that will join by referendum after the conflict is over. It will certainly be a lot easier and less problematic, when you don't turn it to rubble like the US always does.
For the near future, if the pre-baltic chichuahuas continue their pro Nazi SS rhetoric and anti-russian politics they will just seize to exist and anyone foolish enough to believe NATO will nuke Russia or invoke Article 5 will see NATO fall apart faster than Khinzal striking the Reichstag.
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Realistically, Russian restraint will remain a factor because Eastern Ukraine does contain many ethnic Russians who Putin believes need to be liberated from the Ukrainians. That will result in a slower campaign in Eastern Ukraine which would take months/years.
Realistically, if Russian troops move into Poland or Czechia, we will see them engaged with the US Army units stationed there. That will trigger US involvement and Russia knows it, which is why we won't see Russia troops cross to Poland or Czechia.
So a Russian advance into Western Europe is simply not credible.
my question is what happens when the russians unilaterally declare the end of the smo: is that the start of the guerrilla part of the conflict?
how can the russians stop if the ukrainians never stop mobilising? there's from 2019 where arestovich states that they need a victory to join nato and the eu
if the russians stop attacking, that will be the signal for the ukrainians to counterattack, and that's what they've been waiting for all this time
If Russia controls the natural borders like the Dnieper River, Vorskla River, etc. then the Ukrainians physically can't attack on the east side of the Dnieper.
For Kherson, Mykolaiv, etc. controlling a plain with nearby cover like along Korean DMZ is the solution for western side of Dnieper.
Black Shark
Junior Member
You are confusing citizenship with ethnicity. There is historically no ukrainian ethnicity and was only invented like it's pseudo-statehood in the 20th century. They are all russians and the treatment they receive will depend on their willingness or unwillingness to cooperate.
The chance the Kokaina had at the start of the operation to capitulate has been wasted by Kiev's Junta regime and only a naive fool would today believe that Kokaina will exist in the next 5-10 years. They ridicouled every attempt of negotionations by perposterous attempts to play big d*ck on the demand of the US to purposefully sabotage the negotiations to prolong the attrition war against Russia. The West hoped for a lot bigger impact of Kokaina on Russia's military. If mere armschair generals here can see that this will not work then don't make the foolish assessment, that the elites of this policy do not get a grasp of reality. Only the figureheads, actors, that the western world put as their leaders believe the garbage they are spewing. The administration, think tanks, elites of every clan and family who run these countries know that.
I' have never said Russia would need to invade Poland, Czechia or Germany, they will get a visit from good old Khinzals, Calibr and other technologies used as punishment and taste of reality.
Easy. They will make a deal. If Ukraine dares to attack Russian or rebel territory then Russia will rain missile on Kiev. Let's see if the Kiev regime dares.
I don't believe the ukrainian government would just accept the new status quo; imo they will keep asking for stuff; can't they attack from the north?
edit: also, donetsk and the years between 2014 and 2022 show that the ukrainians are not above bombarding cities
Black Shark
Junior Member
The Kokaina wasn't capable of doing anything against Lugansk and Donetzk militias back in 2014 when there was no Russian military involvement. The chance of Kokaina regaining anything is as probably as an rover expedition on the surface of the sun.
This is a poor analysis of Russian failings. Where Russians did badly it appears to be a combination of poor tactics and poorly maintained equipment.
I imagine Ukrainian resistance will crumble once Russian troops enter west Ukraine. Human shield tactics will no longer work. If the Ukrainian army hide in cities the Russians will have no qualms reducing the cities to rubble a la Raqqa.
The German army were proudly claiming they would fight to the death but once the Russians were on German territory they folded pretty quickly. Ukrainians only consider the west part of their territory their homeland and the eastern part full of Russian sympathisers.