It’s been like 48 hours, wait for things to settle.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Russia has not been invaded as part of any Russian master plan, or because the Russians are very brilliant in military strategies, they have been invaded because they have lost many battles... Then they have been able to recover and go on the offensive by attrition of their enemies and sacrificing more lives than anyone else, it is also part of history
I suppose that having their border guards so ill-prepared and careless to fall into enemy hands in an early and humiliating way in the face of the first Ukrainian advances, must be the plan of some macabre plan of the "Russian strategists"
Even the pro-Russian channels realize Putin's displeasure at the excuses of his mediocre military officer
It is advisable to apply the principle of Occam's razor, and not to invent theories or distort history.
The most shameful 48 hours for Putin and the Russian military high command. This is a case for firing everyone.
The funny thing here is the excuses trying to formulate a 5d chess strategy from Putin. That's the funniest thing.
It's a high risk gamble for Ukraine. If Trump wins and they manage to hold the territory, they'd have something to negotiate on, they can then tell Trump, 'see we're willing to talk but Putin isnt', because Putin certainly won't with Russian OG territory under Ukr control.
If Harris wins, it'll add more wind to the sail in terms of PR too and more funds for Ukr.
If Putin restores the borders before the election and Ukrainian retreat isn't orderly and /or they take a lot of attrition, then they'll be worst off than they were 3 days ago.
In the interim, Russia may be forced to divert resources to the new front.
If it's a bait, well know in couple of days. Can't have PR making you look like a fool for too long. If Ukrainians start entrenching, then just bad planning from Russians. But in all cases, extremely difficult for Ukr to hold this territory, matter of time before it's restored.
It'll anyway force Russia and Belarus to strengthen the entire border. In short-medium term, it can be useful for Ukraine as otherwise these resources could've been used else. In long term, it can be dangerous as then Ukraine faces more prepared opposition from all sides, but I guess this gamble isn't about long term because UKR would be getting an L anyway the longer these goes on.
If Harris wins, it'll add more wind to the sail in terms of PR too and more funds for Ukr.
If Putin restores the borders before the election and Ukrainian retreat isn't orderly and /or they take a lot of attrition, then they'll be worst off than they were 3 days ago.
In the interim, Russia may be forced to divert resources to the new front.
If it's a bait, well know in couple of days. Can't have PR making you look like a fool for too long. If Ukrainians start entrenching, then just bad planning from Russians. But in all cases, extremely difficult for Ukr to hold this territory, matter of time before it's restored.
It'll anyway force Russia and Belarus to strengthen the entire border. In short-medium term, it can be useful for Ukraine as otherwise these resources could've been used else. In long term, it can be dangerous as then Ukraine faces more prepared opposition from all sides, but I guess this gamble isn't about long term because UKR would be getting an L anyway the longer these goes on.
Hamas achieved success mainly because Israeli civilians were running around in large numbers, causing confusion on what Israeli army should or should not shoot. There isn't exactly any civilian cars fleeing back towards Ukraine that Ukraine could use as cover to retreat.
And what exactly is the error here? It seems like an Ardennes type offensive which needs to achieve extremely ambitious goals in order to pay off. For example if they can put Kursk under threat, or hurt the logistics in Belgorod.
In return, Ukraine commits at least a corps sized detachment that is now in a position where it's easy to destroy them. Russians are already milking the columns of logistics they bring in near the Ukrainian border where they're all travelling on open roads.
Ukrainian tank and APC gets hit by Lancet west of Sudzha.
Arbat Battalion arrives. Aida SPN arrives. Unit commanded by Ratibor also arrives as well as the Pyatnashka Brigade and Akhmat SPN. Wagner units have entered the frey.
Four high rank commanders of the AFU killed as a result of Iskander hits near the border.
Ukrainian columns continues to advance deep. However this column is ambushed by Ka-52M and it's surviving infantry hunted and hit by artillery.
Destroyed Ukrainian mine clearing machine. Probably hit by a Lancet.
M777 used to support Kursk offensive gets taken out by Lancet.
UMPBs headed to be loaded on a plane.
M113 intercepted by FPV drone in the Seversk direction.
Ukrainian vehicle taken out by FPV drone.
Ukrainian PVD hit by artillery in Kherson. Also, a Ukrainian ammo depot gets hit in Antonovka, Kherson, looks like a Krasnopol shot.
Baba Yaga in support of Kursk offensive snagged by a net.
FPV drone attacks against Ukrainian hideouts in Ivashki, Kharkhiv region.
Water facility building in Liman hit by FAB strikes.
Fragment of a downed Ukrainian Su-27 fighter. This was shot down last June.
Lsychyne in the Pokrovsk sector has fallen to Russian hands. Pokrovsk sector is collapsing for the Ukrainians.
Arbat Battalion arrives. Aida SPN arrives. Unit commanded by Ratibor also arrives as well as the Pyatnashka Brigade and Akhmat SPN. Wagner units have entered the frey.
Four high rank commanders of the AFU killed as a result of Iskander hits near the border.
Ukrainian columns continues to advance deep. However this column is ambushed by Ka-52M and it's surviving infantry hunted and hit by artillery.
Destroyed Ukrainian mine clearing machine. Probably hit by a Lancet.
M777 used to support Kursk offensive gets taken out by Lancet.
UMPBs headed to be loaded on a plane.
M113 intercepted by FPV drone in the Seversk direction.
Ukrainian vehicle taken out by FPV drone.
Ukrainian PVD hit by artillery in Kherson. Also, a Ukrainian ammo depot gets hit in Antonovka, Kherson, looks like a Krasnopol shot.
Baba Yaga in support of Kursk offensive snagged by a net.
FPV drone attacks against Ukrainian hideouts in Ivashki, Kharkhiv region.
Water facility building in Liman hit by FAB strikes.
Fragment of a downed Ukrainian Su-27 fighter. This was shot down last June.
Lsychyne in the Pokrovsk sector has fallen to Russian hands. Pokrovsk sector is collapsing for the Ukrainians.
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Those who defend everywhere lose everywhere.
If you look at actual Ukrainian gains vs losses it is kind of clear who is coming out ahead here with this Ukrainian "peremoga" at Kursk.
Of course Putin is not happy about it. It is bad optics and Russian civilians might die. But the reaction of the military shows to me they perfectly expected this to happen. For them it is acceptable losses.
ATACMS is large enough it can use ring laser gyros and inertial navigation. So it is pretty much immune to Russian GPS jamming. Of course the more the US pushes in these sorts of weapons the more likely it is that Russia will eventually retaliate directly against them.
GLSDB, GMLRS-ER, and Excalibur failed due to GPS jamming and spoofing. And the US does not seem to have any solution to that. At least for the short term.
GMLRS-ER was initially successful when Excalibur was failing because the Russians were initially only interfering with GPS across the line of contact. But then they went into wide area denial of GPS and GMLRS-ER also failed. Same thing happened with the GLSDB.
The Storm Shadow/SCALP and the ATACMS are still a problem. They use TERPROM and INS so they are not vulnerable to GPS denial. While interception of Storm Shadow/SCALP has improved due to software upgrades to the air defense systems they are still a problem. They have a really small radar signature and fly quite low. I think it would require the upgrade of the short range air defenses to close the gap but that will take some serious time and expense. ATACMS is an issue because of the speed mainly. The Russians have a short time to intercept it. This would require the use of automatic mid range air defense systems like the S-350. Again another major expense.
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Found this channel, looks good.
Add to that, the commander of the 92th tank battalion, reportedly one of the units involved in the Kursk offensive.
Seems like open assassination of Ukrainian leaders is now on the table.
Russia claims that these Ukrainian general staff and Pivnenko were involved in planning the attack. If so, the beginning of replies from Russia has been very swift. For Israel to find and take out Foaud from Oct 7 took 9 months+. For Russia to hit the planning generals from Aug 6, only a couple of days.
I guess this is the difference between invading a 3rd tier power and invading one of the major military powers with eyes everywhere.