The War in the Ukraine

Regardless of the outcome of this Ukrainian incursion, it is a massive failure on the part of Russia to not have noticed an invasion force massing on their border in a country with which they are currently at war. Similar vibes to October 7th failure in Israel in which Hamas managed a surprise attack when nobody thought that was really possible.

The Russian side just seems to continually make unforced errors over and over again and I think they have drastically hurt their reputation as a military power globally.

SlothmanAllen said:

Regardless of the outcome of this Ukrainian incursion, it is a massive failure on the part of Russia to not have noticed an invasion force massing on their border in a country with which they are currently at war. Similar vibes to October 7th failure in Israel in which Hamas managed a surprise attack when nobody thought that was really possible.

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The GRU agents could have gathered all the information and passed it on to their command, but the command could have ignored it. If the command did not ignore it, the highest echelon of the Russian General Staff and MoD command could have ignored it.

There are several hypotheses here.

SlothmanAllen said:

The Russian side just seems to continually make unforced errors over and over again and I think they have drastically hurt their reputation as a military power globally.

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Who cares honestly. People who reduce military analysis to memes are not worth talking to.

The bigger issue is that a lot of people in the US military legitimiately seem to be taking away the wrong lessons from this war.

This Ukrainian move is idiotic. And will only further degrade their combat capability.

It is kind of obvious that Russia was probably planning conscription either this Winter or next year to finish off Ukrainian resistance.
If you have been following legislative and government moves in Russia this seems to be the case.

By degrading the few well equipped troops they have left like this Ukraine is just making Russia's job that much easier.

It will be easy to convince the Russian population to follow the conscription drive if Russian territory is attacked by Ukraine.

The Russian ground force should be stopping the breakthrough, sealing it off, and then counterattacking. Where are the reserves?

Cult Icon said:

The Russian ground force should be stopping the breakthrough, sealing it off, and then counterattacking. Where are the reserves?

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You are assuming the Russians aren't baiting them in on purpose. Belarus withdrew their forces from the border with Ukraine, and this is why they have soldiers to do this offensive in the first place. The Russians clearly weakened this sector on purpose. And these guys were baited in.

gelgoog said:

You are assuming the Russians aren't baiting them in on purpose. Belarus withdrew their forces from the border with Ukraine, and this is why they have soldiers to do this offensive in the first place. The Russians clearly weakened this sector on purpose. And these guys were baited in.

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You talk as if you were there in MOD meetings but reality you're just guessing why things are happening and are clueless as the rest of us why Ukraine has been able to go tens of kilometers deep into Russia. "Baiting them on purpose" and "weakening the sector on purpose" is far less likely than Russian military incompetence in failing to detect a brigade size massing at your border with a nation you've been at war for over two years sounds more plausible logically speaking.

SolarWarden said:

You talk as if you were there in MOD meetings but reality you're just guessing why things are happening and are clueless as the rest of us why Ukraine has been able to go tens of kilometers deep into Russia. "Baiting them on purpose" and "weakening the sector on purpose" is far less likely than Russian military incompetence in failing to detect a brigade size massing at your border with a nation you've been at war for over two years sounds more plausible logically speaking.

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"Tens of kilometers deep". Look at a map. It is basically open terrain there.

You are talking about a country, Russia, which has a long history of goading others in and then sapping their strength once they go in.

SlothmanAllen said:

Regardless of the outcome of this Ukrainian incursion, it is a massive failure on the part of Russia to not have noticed an invasion force massing on their border in a country with which they are currently at war. Similar vibes to October 7th failure in Israel in which Hamas managed a surprise attack when nobody thought that was really possible.

The Russian side just seems to continually make unforced errors over and over again and I think they have drastically hurt their reputation as a military power globally.

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While some weaknesses have definitely been exposed, chiefly in command and control structures and logistical issues (ie still no aircraft shelters?), I think that part of this feeling is stemming from the western media bias.

For example, there was a lot of hype surrounding the transfer of the GLSDB. The cost effectiveness and range was made out to be something that could saturate Russian defenses, but now the Ukrainian military has discarded it due to Russian EW. The failure, while publicized, is less well-known.

Similarly, there was a lot of hype around the M777 and Excalibur transfer, which again, the latter has been completely neutralized.

We see this story played out continually, AGM-88 HARM, Storm Shadow/SCALP, Western Tanks (Leo2, Abrams), etc. Given that the majority of posters on SDF have a pro-Russian bias, these weapons are routinely derided as "wunderwaffen". However, this isn't too far off the actual portrayal in Western media with headlines like this

My favourite is the Switchblade drone, the hype surrounding it could only be rivaled Segway, Daikatana, Duke Nukem Forever, Zune, and the Arch Deluxe. This is a weapon that the US has spent millions on, and now considers scrap due to Russian EW. For Ukrainians, it is easier to buy parts from Alibaba through Poland and DIY.

gelgoog said:

You are assuming the Russians aren't baiting them in on purpose. Belarus withdrew their forces from the border with Ukraine, and this is why they have soldiers to do this offensive in the first place. The Russians clearly weakened this sector on purpose. And these guys were baited in.

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There should be reports of reserves coming in to seal off the breakthrough? There are civilians there and it is not good optics to put them in a battlezone.

Granted the Ukrainian corps-sized attack could culminate after all the interdiction strikes/losses and they may end up having to withdraw (like in the Battle of the Bulge).