The War in the Ukraine

sequ said:

Got to admit, the Ukrainians won't be able to get the lost lands back. They had the one and only chance to do that during the summer and that is now gone.

No ATACMS, no F-16 will change that.

How long till we see Zelenksy getting booted or forced to sign a cease fire?

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Ceasefire needs to be signed by both sides. Right now there is simply no benefit for Russia to sign one. Adiviika has to be taken for Russia to secure Donbass city at minimum. There are also multiple railway junctions to take like Seversk. At minimum Russia needs to make their gain defendable. Besides, why give Ukraine a chance to catch a break when they are most vulnerable?

Remains to be seen what kind of technology level the F-16 being shipped to Ukraine would have. In order to use AMRAAM tho it needs the late model of AN/APG-68, afaik at least V5's given that our (Indonesian Airforce) F-16C/D B25 is not compatible with AMRAAM yet.

The other key piece of technology would be potential transfer of Jammer suite e.g AN/ALQ-184 and possibility of HTS AN/ASQ-213 which would allow full utilization of AGM-88 missile. They can then provide some armed escort for their Storm shadow carriers or trying to do SEAD mission, more properly this time.

If they got Harpoon integration, they could try contest Russian Black Sea fleet ship in Black Sea. Last but not the least is probable presence of Link-16, thus allow direct provision of NATO target designation to the aircraft, allowing possible attempt to use AIM-120 at their maximum range, depending on what variant they got tho. C would present considerable threat.

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Beside AEW and stuff tho the other Russian option is to prevent them from being operational by missile strike or sabotage.

Stealthflanker said:

Remains to be seen what kind of technology level the F-16 being shipped to Ukraine would have. In order to use AMRAAM tho it needs the late model of AN/APG-68, afaik at least V5's given that our (Indonesian Airforce) F-16C/D B25 is not compatible with AMRAAM yet.

The other key piece of technology would be potential transfer of Jammer suite e.g AN/ALQ-184 and possibility of HTS AN/ASQ-213 which would allow full utilization of AGM-88 missile. They can then provide some armed escort for their Storm shadow carriers or trying to do SEAD mission, more properly this time.

If they got Harpoon integration, they could try contest Russian Black Sea fleet ship in Black Sea. Last but not the least is probable presence of Link-16, thus allow direct provision of NATO target designation to the aircraft, allowing possible attempt to use AIM-120 at their maximum range, depending on what variant they got tho. C would present considerable threat.

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Beside AEW and stuff tho the other Russian option is to prevent them from being operational by missile strike or sabotage.

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Better utilisation of HARM and threat of Harpoons are points I agree with but I‘m not convinced about the air to air potential of the platform. Ukrainian Airforce typically flies low to avoid Russian air defences and I don’t think F-16s can mitigate that, without altitude their air to air potential would remain stunted regardless of the missile platform available. Russian approach has also been about exploiting their longer reaching missiles to snipe at Ukrainians aircrafts from a long range, using their aircrafts and air defence systems, keeping their own assets far from danger. Russians planes also more advanced (the more prominent ones like Su 35) and has countermeasures to deal with any long range threat coming towards them, I don’t know how these F-16s can threaten a Su-35 or Mig 31 without somehow getting close enough to be a get a lethal enough shot.

Regardless, they are a threat that the Russians would love to get rid of ASAP.

Aswin_hht said:

Better utilisation of HARM and threat of Harpoons are points I agree with but I‘m not convinced about the air to air potential of the platform. Ukrainian Airforce typically flies low to avoid Russian air defences and I don’t think F-16s can mitigate that, without altitude their air to air potential would remain stunted regardless of the missile platform available. Russian approach has also been about exploiting their longer reaching missiles to snipe at Ukrainians aircrafts from a long range, using their aircrafts and air defence systems, keeping their own assets far from danger. Russians planes also more advanced (the more prominent ones like Su 35) and has countermeasures to deal with any long range threat coming towards them, I don’t know how these F-16s can threaten a Su-35 or Mig 31 without somehow getting close enough to be a get a lethal enough shot.

Regardless, they are a threat that the Russians would love to get rid of ASAP.

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If these F-16's come with HARM targeting pod and EW pod they can take advantage of the HARMs 150km+ range. Also don't discount pilot "volunteers" there are a ton of retired F-16 pilots in US and Europe. Some of these pilots may be flying US standard F-16's with Ukraine colors only to be piloted by US "volunteers."

You'd think by now the Russians would have developed some other tactic beyond just charging straight over open ground in broad daylight and getting blown to bits in the process. You'd think that, but you'd be wrong. Here's some stunning footage of their 473rd attempt at using this, er, "tactic":


The same approach with the same results at Vuhledar:


and


Motorbike can't escape drone:


Don't sit on top of your APC.


I've omitted a dozen or more FPV drone videos of strikes on individuals and others of dead Russian troops. But there's plenty, if you care to look.

FPV drones from the Sparta Battalion hits three BMP and two AFU tanks in the Avdiivka area.


Onix missiles hitting Zatok port area and shipping and storage infrastructure in the Odessa region.


TOS hits against a railway bridge used as a Ukrainian position in Kherson.


Destroyed 2S1 Gvozdika SPG of the AFU.


From the sound and looks of it, a large ammo depot was hit by Gerans in Kharkhiv.


AFU truck hit by Kornet at a 5km range in Artemovosk front.


LMUR strike at a Ukrainian stronghold.


AFU T-64BV hits a mine in the Kupyansk direction.


Mi-28MN destroys a Ukrainian unmanned boat.


Lancet hits a Bradley near the railway at the Avdiivka front. The Bradley belongs to the 47th Mechanized Brigade of the AFU.


Video of Leopard, Bradleys and M113 taken out in the road to Rabotino.


Two FAB-500s hitting at the Kremenna region, allegedly the area hit contains the headquarters of the AFU 63rd.


A new Russian kamekaze drone, the Scalpel, enters service in Avdiivka.


Former employees of Wagner joins the Chechen Akhmat.


VT-40 FPV drone hits a Leopard 2A4. YPR-765, M113 and BTR-4E seen burning in Zaporozhye.


Ukrainian observation post in Zaporozhye hit by FPV drone.


Trophies by the 394th MR Regiment after assault in Staromayorsky.


More FAB bombing at Novomikhailovka.


Onix hits an ammo depot in the Odessa region.


Bradley lost its turret as it got hit by ATGM of the 22nd SPN Brigade in Kleeshevka.

SolarWarden said:

If these F-16's come with HARM targeting pod and EW pod they can take advantage of the HARMs 150km+ range. Also don't discount pilot "volunteers" there are a ton of retired F-16 pilots in US and Europe. Some of these pilots may be flying US standard F-16's with Ukraine colors only to be piloted by US "volunteers."

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Yeah I agree to it. These aircrafts has plenty of SEAD, ASM and air-to-ground potential. I’m only skeptical about their air-to-air potency as mentioned in my post.

gelgoog said:

The F-16 with MLU is going to be of little use to regain air dominance. At best it will be used as a bomb truck to lob JDAMs and the like. Only the F-16 with AESA radar and AIM-120D would be minimally effective.

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The number of former Soviet jets that are ready to fly is probably close to zero, so there is no alternative to replacing them with Western aircraft. If Ukraine no longer had jets, the Russian Air Force could operate more freely. At least on paper there must be a few jets operational somewhere. They can remain safely hidden on the ground most of the time.

Intrepid said:

The number of former Soviet jets that are ready to fly is probably close to zero, so there is no alternative to replacing them with Western aircraft. If Ukraine no longer had jets, the Russian Air Force could operate more freely. At least on paper there must be a few jets operational somewhere. They can remain safely hidden on the ground most of the time.

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It's not Ukraine's outdated soviet migs that is keeping Russian air force at bay it is Ukraine IADS and lack of capabilities of the Russian air force.

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