Taiwan´s ROCAF wants to buy 66 F-16C/D Block 52

I'm not sure how many Washington would be agreeing to sell anyway, nor how much they would cost. But the C/D block would be a useful purchase for Taiwan - it can't guarantee when it will be able to buy more fighters. Missiles are something it can pick up at a later date and are delivered far more quickly.

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Well, the problem is, they have no way of knowing when they might need them. What use will an F-16C be if after only a few days of fighting you have to use Sparrows and they didn't get around to ordering any new AMRAAMs?

To defend Taiwan they'd need a large stockpile of AMRAAMs to have any chance at surviving a few days. An F-16C without AMRAAMs isn't all that useful.

Totoro said:

Taiwan's f16s are at MLU standard which should be comparable to block 30 sans the C/D version engine and still using apg66 radar, albeit greatly modified. They are able to use amraams. As for precision weapons, even when bought they were able to use mavericks, and since then sharphooter targeting pods (basically lantirn) have been bought, some 68 pieces if taiwainairpower.org is to be believed. There is no mention of laser guided bombs but if you are gonna buy laser targeting pods then i find it highly doubtful that there arent any bombs to go with them. So probably the answer is yes - little under half of total number of current f16s probably do have PGM capability. Other half is probably planned to be used as harpoon launch platforms.

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The ROCAF's current F-16s have LGB capability, as I recall several were used in the last HK exercise.

I would expect that at the very least you would have to average 4 AMRAAMs per F-16 to mount a half-credible defense, and that would probably only last 2 days or so. In that situation i would expect each F-16 to be mounted with 2 AMRAAMS on each sortie because of the highly volatile environment, if you get shot down at least it's not as big of a blow. That would only be enough for 2 sorties, which obviously wouldn't hold on for long.

4 AMRAAMs per F-16 would be 600. What does the ROCAF have now? 120. That's f*cking retarded. In the government's defense... ah screw it. There's no justifying this, the only reason I can think of is to inflict as few casualties on an invasion force as possible. Apparently someone has a fetish for being curbstomped.

The ROCAF's current F-16s have LGB capability, as I recall several were used in the last HK exercise.

I would expect that at the very least you would have to average 4 AMRAAMs per F-16 to mount a half-credible defense, and that would probably only last 2 days or so. In that situation i would expect each F-16 to be mounted with 2 AMRAAMS on each sortie because of the highly volatile environment, if you get shot down at least it's not as big of a blow. That would only be enough for 2 sorties, which obviously wouldn't hold on for long.

4 AMRAAMs per F-16 would be 600. What does the ROCAF have now? 120. That's f*cking retarded. In the government's defense... ah screw it. There's no justifying this, the only reason I can think of is to inflict as few casualties on an invasion force as possible. Apparently someone has a fetish for being curbstomped.

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Agreed. If they wanted a credible defense they should spend a lot of that $3 billion on AMRAAMs instead of more F-16s that are only going to slightly increase their current warfighting capability. $3 billion could get them thousands of AMRAAMs. For each shiny new F-16 they ordered they could have gotten plenty more AMRAAMs. They could still get 48 F-16Cs and thousands of AMRAAMs, but it's ridiculous that this new shipment ends with them apparently only having an extra 120. That at least brings them up to about a 1:1 ratio as far as AMRAAMs for each F-16, but that won't last long in combat at all.

Vlad Plasmius said:

Well, the problem is, they have no way of knowing when they might need them.

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Yes, but if the Americans don't want to sell many of them, it's an academic statement. Some people argue that Taiwan simply can't afford to buy many with all its other necessary purchases, upgrades, costs, etc - others that the US doesn't want to sell, or even that the ROCAF wants to order in batches, so as not to have the missiles become dated all at the same time. I've no idea what the reason is.

Maybe if the deal falls through, Taiwan could see if the US would sell a stockpile of missiles instead. But, as I pointed out, if they don't want to then that's a bit of a problem.

All amongst this, you mustn't forget the Mirages and IDFs that Taiwan has as well - they're well stocked with missiles. And, yes, I know the F-16s are better than either of those, but they're still useful to have around. If all Taiwan had was a fleet of F-16s, then things would be worse.

But Fu, you must admit that Taiwan does not stand a chance unless it can get its AMRAAM situation fixed. On paper Taiwan has a very powerful military, but unless they get those AMRAAMs, half or more of their air force is pretty much useless, and without that the defence of the whole nation is doomed.

Finn McCool said:

But Fu, you must admit that Taiwan does not stand a chance unless it can get its AMRAAM situation fixed.

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Unless there is enough warning of a Chinese invasion, I would say it's chances of holding out would be low. But that doesn't mean it would have no chance. I'm just being precise - it is correct that more advanced missiles are required as a matter of urgency.

That in of itself is an indication in my mind that the US isn't willing to sell many, unless it's part of a larger hardware deal.

Recently rumours were around that some USAF intelligence people had a nightmarish delusion that Ma Jing-yeoh will give a bunch of the newest AMRAAM´s to Hu Jintao as a wedding gift in 2008. (just kidding!)

The US maintains a very deliberate weapons export policy for decades now (learning from the 1979 desaster in Iran): Do not sell the most advanced offensive long range weapons (ASM, AAM, AShM etc.) in any substantial numbers if the recipient does not classify as a very stable first class iron clad ally. (i.e. UK, Canada, Australia,Israel plus some euro NATO-Allies (Germany,Italy,Poland) and Japan (South Korea may lose this position soon)).

All the other so called friends and allies (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Egypt) get only degraded crap for which they have to pay a hefty price. The saudi F-15-S is simply a completely impotent ´Strike Eagle´without effective missiles and the israelis keep on laughing about the egyptians lunacy of buying more than 200 old-block F-16 without enough short range AAM´s for self defense. Pakistan did not even get her already paid F-16 since the paks were not obedient enough regarding their nuke program.

So if you keep the tabs together the reason for not selling substantial numbers of AMRAAM´s to Taiwan is quite clear: Washington does not regard Taiwan as a completely reliable and subservient ally anymore. DoD analysts conclude that after becoming rapidly economically dependent on the mainland the future course of Taiwan will be in the direction of reintegration or at least accomodation with Beijing. That interpretation of facts may be wrong but nevertheless this is arguably the root cause for being so hesitant in arms deliveries from US to Taiwan for some years now.

All amongst this, you mustn't forget the Mirages and IDFs that Taiwan has as well - they're well stocked with missiles. And, yes, I know the F-16s are better than either of those, but they're still useful to have around. If all Taiwan had was a fleet of F-16s, then things would be worse.

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They have 58 Mirages and 130 IDFs. Both are well-equipped yes, but there are other issues there.

The big one is that Taiwan's own long-range AAMs are not even comparable to those of modern air forces. The IDF is very slow in comparison to most modern fighters. In general it is just not that capable of a fighter. Albeit, a fighter's a fighter. However, a fully-armed F-16 is probably worth about 10 IDFs in combat.

The Mirages are small in number, which also poses a problem. They can't get shot down as much as the F-16s before it becomes a problem.

So the F-16s are essentially Taiwan's air force. They'll be doing most of the fighting because they'll be the fighters most capable of doing it and are in a large enough number to be doing it. So, having them well-supplied is an issue. They should have 8 missiles for each aircraft, not the Mirages.

I agree that America is part of why Taiwan couldn't get enough supplies. And I guess Taiwan is probably buying this as the only (and very bad) deal. Taiwan has enough F-16s: 144. Isn't it better to just send them to the US to upgrade them? I doubt Taiwan is thaat stupid/ignorant. (At least I hope. No offence intended here.) If Taiwan could, it would probably just buy more AMRAAMs than doing this.

Vlad Plasmius said:

The political deadlock makes it seem that bad. Chances are that will not change either.

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Lin, however, did however say that the anti-submarine aircraft are the most likely item to be approved because their purchase is not considered controversial or sensitive.