Taiwan´s ROCAF wants to buy 66 F-16C/D Block 52

Delphi84 · Sep 1, 2006

The_Zergling said:
According to that logic NO country in the world should ever spend money on stuff designed only to increase human suffering. I like that. Of course you might not think China should follow the same rule, but whatever.

My interpretation of what you said (at least part of it) was Taiwan should only be spending money on issues that can help its people. Obviously that's the best situation for the citizens, but it's not going to happen as long as the threat of military invasion is looming over their heads, hence helping create a semi-arms race that Taiwan can't possibly match without important services getting the short end of the stick. But yeah. It's chicken and egg. If China didn't keep threatening to invade, Taiwan wouldn't have to get weapons. (Who else is hostile in the area?) If Taiwan didn't keep "Delaying the inevitable, righteous, and glorious re-unification with the great Motherland then China wouldn't have to resort to tough love". It goes on and on... Not the place for it, so I'll shut up now. Suffice to say my views about this differ from yours.

Personally I have somewhat mixed reactions to this. It's actually a pretty old story, at least on the Taiwan Military forums. On one hand I think that these F-16s would be a good replacement for the F-5s being slowly phased out. On the other hand, frankly speaking I think they're just going to be more target practice for Chinese fighters if the shooting ever gets started. Taiwan doesn't have enough live fire exercises especially with the weapons most important to them in an air battle (namely AMRAAMs, courtesy of the US disapproval. What the hell is the PLAAF going to learn from watching a video of an AMRAAM being fired? It's like fighting with one arm tied behind your back.) so basically the pilots don't have enough realistic training, and that's always a bad thing.

I mean, for real. Taiwan's got ~150 F-16s currently, excluding the upcoming deal for Block 52s, and only 120 AMRAAMs. What kind of idiot buys 150 guns and only 120 bullets? So on one hand I like the F-16s because they're a hell of a lot more capable than the F-5s. On the other hand if the ROCAF's not getting a hell of a lot more missiles then it's all a moot point.

Dear Zergling, have u ever served before in the military? I am quite surprised that u claim that the ROCAF do not have frequent life firing exercises. I can assure u, that most countries do not do live firing so frequently as if it was nobodies business. The military must factor in some ammos must be kept for contigency, some allocated for live firing, a small portion for R & D.
I served in the army as a Guardsmen before which is somewad like rapid deployment force. The most high tech ammo we had was the SPIKE missile. I can assure you, not every member in the ATGM platoon has fired the missile before, why? BCOS THE SPIKE MISSILE IS FREAKING EXPENSIVE!!! A typical unit of SPIKE will be equivalent to abt the cost of one BMW+road tax!! So u can imagine, each time life firing, a BMW is "destroyed"! thus eacg batch of trainees only 2 is fired. I believe the same for Taiwan, bcos it is too expensive.

The_Zergling · Sep 2, 2006

Well I may not have actually served in the ROCAF but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that with only 120 AMRAAMs chances are most of the pilots have never even had a chance to fire one.

Like you said, high tech missiles are expensive, and the fact that the US sold such a useless amount to the ROCAF makes things even worse. In fact, AMRAAMs being test fired even made the friggin' front pages in Taiwan newspapers. How common can it be?

Vlad Plasmius · Sep 2, 2006

I served in the army as a Guardsmen before which is somewad like rapid deployment force. The most high tech ammo we had was the SPIKE missile. I can assure you, not every member in the ATGM platoon has fired the missile before, why? BCOS THE SPIKE MISSILE IS FREAKING EXPENSIVE!!! A typical unit of SPIKE will be equivalent to abt the cost of one BMW+road tax!! So u can imagine, each time life firing, a BMW is "destroyed"! thus eacg batch of trainees only 2 is fired. I believe the same for Taiwan, bcos it is too expensive.

Comparing an ATGM to AMRAAM is like comparing a jackass to a racing stallion.

THe problem isn't just live-fire. Their supply situation means most fighters probably won't go into combat with many AMRAAMs. It's possible many won't even go in with them. In fact, Taiwan may set those 120 missiles aside specifically for the F-16Cs leaving the supply problem with the F-16As the same.

However, it is obvious there's a problem. As I already pointed out, despite having such a small number of Mirage-2000s the ROCAF has 400 MICAs. That's more than enough for each fighter to be fully-armed with MICAs.

They do have a large supply of AIM-7s, but even there is a problem. We're talking now of over 200 F-16s. There are 750 Sparrows, correct me if I'm wrong, and that means each can get about 3 of the missiles more like 2. So, while the supply situation is better, it's not as good as with the Mirages.

Also, as already pointed out China has already had access to Sparrow technology.

bd popeye · Sep 2, 2006

They do have a large supply of AIM-7s, but even there is a problem. We're talking now of over 200 F-16s. There are 750 Sparrows, correct me if I'm wrong, and that means each can get about 3 of the missiles more like 2. So, while the supply situation is better, it's not as good as with the Mirages.

Also, as already pointed out China has already had access to Sparrow technology.

Coupled with the fact that sparrows like to explode before they get to their target. Some of those rocket motors on those missiles are old. The more a munition is handled . The worse it reliabelity becomes. When those rocket motors crack internally they will explode when the missile burns down to the point where it is cracked...I know I was a Avation Ordanceman.

In my opinion the ROCAF is no match for the PLAAF in any situation. They are simply outnumbered.

Deleted member 675 · Sep 2, 2006

bd popeye said:
In my opinion the ROCAF is no match for the PLAAF in any situation. They are simply outnumbered.

I wouldn't agree with that. Pure numbers aren't enough. After all, it's debatable as to how many planes would be deployed. Would China expend every single advanced jet it had, and leave patrolling Chinese airspace to J-7s and mothballed J-6s? There's always a limit.

The main issue would be supply of missiles and things like keeping the runways/airbases open.

Vlad Plasmius · Sep 2, 2006

I wouldn't agree with that. Pure numbers aren't enough. After all, it's debatable as to how many planes would be deployed. Would China expend every single advanced jet it had, and leave patrolling Chinese airspace to J-7s and mothballed J-6s? There's always a limit.

Well, my thoughts are that maybe 24 to 48 Su-30MKKs would be used. Maybe a similar number of Su-27/J-11s and perhaps some action by J-8Fs and J-7Gs. JH-7s and H-6s would probably be used for air-to-ground action. I don't expect fighter and bomber numbers to exceed 200.

Su-30MKKs would be the big threat to ROCAF. THey're well supplied, modern, manueverable, and deadly in air-to-air or air-to-ground roles. The main focus would probably be a quick strike against ROCN and ROCAF. Imagine how bad the supply situation gets if hangars start getting bombed and weapons depots are destroyed. China can effectively cut off almost the entire country by just blockading the Taiwan Straits. They can do all of this just with the regional air force and navy being deployed, though I imagine 052Cs would also be deployed nearby.

The main issue would be supply of missiles and things like keeping the runways/airbases open.

One also has to consider the limited training ROCAF gets.

Deleted member 675 · Sep 2, 2006

Vlad Plasmius said:
China can effectively cut off almost the entire country by just blockading the Taiwan Straits. They can do all of this just with the regional air force and navy being deployed

I'm not sure what China's "regional" air-force would be, but using just 200 fighters and bombers would be very, very risky. Taiwan's existing fighters aren't that bad - even excluding the F-5s it has over 300 of them. Then you have to think about Taiwan's air defences too.

I also think it would rather want some naval reinforcements to be on the safe side. Seven submarines isn't a lot if/when Taiwan's Orions are put into service; nor is six destroyers, though there would be plenty of frigates.

Also there is the issue of Taiwan's missile development, which may provide a bit of wild card in coming years for Taipei.

bd popeye · Sep 2, 2006

I wouldn't agree with that. Pure numbers aren't enough. After all, it's debatable as to how many planes would be deployed. Would China expend every single advanced jet it had, and leave patrolling Chinese airspace to J-7s and mothballed J-6s? There's always a limit.

The main issue would be supply of missiles and things like keeping the runways/airbases open.

I just think that the PLAAF has the force to overwhelm the ROCAF. I have no idea what sort of stragety they would use. None..

I really don't want to get into an PRC Vs ROC thread. ...

Deleted member 675 · Sep 2, 2006

bd popeye said:
I really don't want to get into an PRC Vs ROC thread. ...

Yup, let's keep this to a discussion about the F-16s and/or the ROCAF more generally. That's the sensible thing to do.

Vlad Plasmius · Sep 2, 2006

I'm not sure what China's "regional" air-force would be, but using just 200 fighters and bombers would be very, very risky. Taiwan's existing fighters aren't that bad - even excluding the F-5s it has over 300 of them. Then you have to think about Taiwan's air defences too.

I also think it would rather want some naval reinforcements to be on the safe side. Seven submarines isn't a lot if/when Taiwan's Orions are put into service; nor is six destroyers, though there would be plenty of frigates.

Also there is the issue of Taiwan's missile development, which may provide a bit of wild card in coming years for Taipei.

Well the issue is one of supply. THe Kidd destroyers ROCN is getting will only have 248 missiles. All four destroyers together would have at least 192 of those missiles installed. Unless they get more there's another supply issue. As I recall they also have a supply issue with Patriot and HAWK missiles.

All their purchases come with three drawbacks:

1. High costs
2. Low supply
3. Long waiting periods

Even the subs you talk about are only expected to fully equip the ROCN by 2015. By 2015 any defense of Taiwan will surely become a non-issue. It's a viable question. How long can Taiwan keep up its defenses with its current supply issue. If China was able to enforce a blockade on the Taiwan Straits it would cut Taiwan off from resupply.

After only a few days of fighting Taiwan would probably run out of its advanced American weapons. Every day of battle with China would make Taiwan's defeat more and more certain. I think the only reason China's military would launch a mass attack would be to erode such supply even faster.

By starving Taiwan's economy, military, and formenting the existing divisions in politics, China would not even have to land a single soldier in Taiwan to win.

Taiwan´s ROCAF wants to buy 66 F-16C/D Block 52

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