Taiwan´s ROCAF wants to buy 66 F-16C/D Block 52

I think that it is time Taiwan re-evaluated its entire defence strategy. Rather than try to match or surpass China in technology and numbers as they are doing now, Taiwan should focus on asymmetric defence. Large numbers of mobile cruise and ballistic missles on land, a "cheap" navy made up of FACs that can swarm a Chinese fleet with missles and an army that is small and high tech-a force designed to launch a massive counterattack against a Chinese beachead that would undoubtedly be heavily weakened by amount of missles fired at it, the ships transporting the soldiers and supporting them and mainland staging areas and bases. The main weakness of this overall strategy is that Taiwan is essentially surrenduring control of the air to China, but it is not really possible to contest an enemies control of the air with an assymetric strategy, so in order to conserve Taiwan's limited resources, it must be done. The effects of Chinese control could be mitigated by SAMs and MANPADs though.

As China's power grows, and Taiwan's influence wains, it must find a way to survive. I think that by foucusing on China's weakspots, Taiwan can avoid problems like this missle shortage and lack of political support for arms deals, while still providing a credible threat to China's inexperienced military.

Vlad Plasmius said:

Even the subs you talk about are only expected to fully equip the ROCN by 2015.

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I didn't talk about the subs - I talked about the Orions.

By starving Taiwan's economy, military, and formenting the existing divisions in politics, China would not even have to land a single soldier in Taiwan to win.

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Or maybe it would increase the determination of Taiwanese to "stick it out" until help arrives. In theory people should always surrender when they're being strangled, but normally they get pissed off and fight back.

Finn McCool said:

Taiwan should focus on asymmetric defence. Large numbers of mobile cruise and ballistic missles on land

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That is what they have been looking into over the past years - the HF-3 is due to test-fired sometime this month. Also they were to develop more FACs, but their latest project was halted because there was a dispute over the building contract. In terms of the Army, it is being reformed to become a majority volunteer force, not counting the reserves.

Still, traditional elements of a navy and airforce would be necessary in order to buy Taiwan time, otherwise China would be able to take contol too fast.

I didn't talk about the subs - I talked about the Orions.

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Ahh, yes. Yeah, when are they going to get all of those? Maybe in a century or so?

Or maybe it would increase the determination of Taiwanese to "stick it out" until help arrives. In theory people should always surrender when they're being strangled, but normally they get pissed off and fight back.

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Fight back with what? Only a little fighting would end with exhausted supplies and no real way of resupplying themselves.

Vlad Plasmius said:

Ahh, yes. Yeah, when are they going to get all of those? Maybe in a century or so?

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Don't exaggerate, that's just being plain silly.

Fight back with what? Only a little fighting would end with exhausted supplies and no real way of resupplying themselves.

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You're talking as if they would have to somehow defeat China. If the US were to make good on its treaty obligations, they would only have to hold out until help arrived.

In your previous post, you were implying that a blockade would be enough to make Taiwanese give up because of their political differences. I was pointing out that being attacked by another power often leads to people putting aside their differences and not surrendering. At the very least that would delay China's victory and increase the chances of outside intervention.

If the US/other major powers didn't get involved, no realistic amount of supplies would help Taiwan - it would only be putting off the inevitable.

Then again perhaps after some years of production Taiwan might have enough missiles to inflict serious casualties on Chinese forces and give itself a chance.

Now, as Popeye said, let's not get sidelined into a China v. Taiwan discussion. Let's leave it there.

Don't exaggerate, that's just being plain silly.

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The political deadlock makes it seem that bad. Chances are that will not change either. The KMT and the pan-blue coallition looks to be poised to gain further ground in the legislature. So as long as that goes on many plans that would enhance Taiwan's defense will be delayed until they're no longer useful and even then won't be delivered for a few years or more.

You're talking as if they would have to somehow defeat China. If the US were to make good on its treaty obligations, they would only have to hold out until help arrived.

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That depends on whether China acts first or Taiwan. Our treaty obligations only go so far. Not to mention we have to get there in a certain time or we won't be of any help. Taiwan's supply issue is a very important factor. China will be bombarding Taiwan every hour upon the hour destroying weapons stores, airbases, and shooting down fighters. Taiwan can't destroy the PLAAF's supplies so easily. So they'll be faced with having a quickly dwindling supply and no way to resupply. Unless there are some major breakthroughs that's going to persist. Taiwan's current supply may last them a day or two, after which it'll be like fish in a barrel.

In your previous post, you were implying that a blockade would be enough to make Taiwanese give up because of their political differences. I was pointing out that being attacked by another power often leads to people putting aside their differences and not surrendering. At the very least that would delay China's victory and increase the chances of outside intervention.

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Even if that were true, which it most likely isn't, it doesn't adress a supply problem.

Now, as Popeye said, let's not get sidelined into a China v. Taiwan discussion. Let's leave it there.

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These weapons are only intended to fight one nation, China. There may be some potential for Japan, but it's definitely focused towards China. As such, the effectiveness and faults of this procurement have to be put in such a light. F-16Cs are all well and good, but what's the point if they only have two AMRAAMs for each?

This is partly my fault. The old PRC Vs ROC debate is rearing it's ugly head. This thread will be closed if this discussion continues. Focus only on the ROC possible purchase of F-16's

bd popeye moderator

Well, I think I'd probably speak for most people by saying that $3 billion would be better spent on more AMRAAMs, not more F-16s. There's an analogy somewhere in there but I can't think of it.

Vlad Plasmius said:

Well, I think I'd probably speak for most people by saying that $3 billion would be better spent on more AMRAAMs, not more F-16s. There's an analogy somewhere in there but I can't think of it.

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IIRC, the ROCAF's current fleet of F-16's are mostly F-16A/B, and lack the advanced avionics to guide the AIM-120 and any precision ground attack abilities. Correct me if I am wrong, but if this deal does get passed (however unlikely) and not get neutered by PRC's intervention, the new F-16's would be a significant upgrade to ROCAF's air combat ability.
I am however not knowledgable about Taiwan's stockpile of any precision ground attack weapons. Since this deal did not mention any laser-guided bombs, could anyone elaborate on Taiwan's precision strike capabilities?

Taiwan's f16s are at MLU standard which should be comparable to block 30 sans the C/D version engine and still using apg66 radar, albeit greatly modified. They are able to use amraams. As for precision weapons, even when bought they were able to use mavericks, and since then sharphooter targeting pods (basically lantirn) have been bought, some 68 pieces if taiwainairpower.org is to be believed. There is no mention of laser guided bombs but if you are gonna buy laser targeting pods then i find it highly doubtful that there arent any bombs to go with them. So probably the answer is yes - little under half of total number of current f16s probably do have PGM capability. Other half is probably planned to be used as harpoon launch platforms.

Vlad Plasmius said:

Well, I think I'd probably speak for most people by saying that $3 billion would be better spent on more AMRAAMs, not more F-16s.

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I'm not sure how many Washington would be agreeing to sell anyway, nor how much they would cost. But the C/D block would be a useful purchase for Taiwan - it can't guarantee when it will be able to buy more fighters. Missiles are something it can pick up at a later date and are delivered far more quickly.