Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
some from our Sri Lanka BRI friend

The Hambantota port is hopefully getting up to speed with its revenue generation. Seems like it's being used as a midpoint in shipping between East Asia and Europe. Quite interesting

More BRI projects in Sri Lanka, this time increasing Port of Colombo

Good point here. Given it's position, Sri Lanka could possibly be used as a logistics hub between China and Europe or China and Africa. Possibly, we will see.
 

resistance

Junior Member
Registered Member
What's your evidence for this? You can't give up on every relationship just because they are hostile now.
You can work toward smoothing out relationships by focusing on mutual interests.
Every country cares about its own core interest. And you need to do it in a way that's not condescending to them

They would say the same about China. Again, why do you look down on India? Think about it, how do people talk about Indians on this forum? Even aside from the nationalistic competition, the type of language used on Indian people are very offensive. Think about it for real. India has its problems, but you definitely cannot blame the entire relationship failure on India here.


What are you talking about? How is china giving them a diplomatic or economic lifeline? India's manufacturing is entirely dependent on Chinese supply chain. China runs huge trade surplus with both countries.

You should not trust in most nations, but you can trust in countries acting toward their core interest.

Remember, China's relationship with Russia was very rocky for decades and now Russia is China's strongest ally because of mutual core interest. Find other countries that advances your interest.

At one point, SK was friendly with China. Now, it hates China more than any other country in the world, because being close to China is bad for its core interests

I see, but you see there are many other countries around there. Iran is just one of the many neighbors that China wants to make sure is under its orbit.

keep in mind the strongest supporter for EU is Hungary as long as Orban is in power. Unless the Greeks get their far left (Yanis and his party) back in power, it's always like to shift further away.
I don't know what they can really veto, since EU policies are generally decided by France and Germany.

Well, China already has great relationship with these other countries. Now, it can have warmer relationship with Turkey also, because Turkey is fed up with America. Again, Turkey is one of the 4 powers in West Asia and North Africa along with Saudi, Israel and Iran. If America is down to Israel, then it's pretty much game over there

Guy, it's all about advancing your own national interests. BRICS is only important because it allows China to advance its own interest in having countries depend on China's financial system. We are at a point where America is trying to get everyone to break ties with China. So China's goal needs to be to pull as many country to its orbit and use its infrastructure as possible. Having something like NDB for example supporting more countries in global south is great for China. If India can support it and support further de-dollarization, that's even better. Not every country comes baggage free like Brazil.
Because turkey and India core interest is against Chinese core interest. I never oppose turkey nor India in brics, a group for de dollarization and multipolarisim, but oppose both of them in SCO or any cooperation better than RCEP.

China don't need turkey trust, turkey can join de dollarization without china getting closer than this. No need to get closer to turkey than other countries in region.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
What's your evidence for this? You can't give up on every relationship just because they are hostile now.
You can work toward smoothing out relationships by focusing on mutual interests.
Every country cares about its own core interest. And you need to do it in a way that's not condescending to them

They would say the same about China. Again, why do you look down on India? Think about it, how do people talk about Indians on this forum? Even aside from the nationalistic competition, the type of language used on Indian people are very offensive. Think about it for real. India has its problems, but you definitely cannot blame the entire relationship failure on India here.


What are you talking about? How is china giving them a diplomatic or economic lifeline? India's manufacturing is entirely dependent on Chinese supply chain. China runs huge trade surplus with both countries.

You should not trust in most nations, but you can trust in countries acting toward their core interest.

Remember, China's relationship with Russia was very rocky for decades and now Russia is China's strongest ally because of mutual core interest. Find other countries that advances your interest.

At one point, SK was friendly with China. Now, it hates China more than any other country in the world, because being close to China is bad for its core interests

I see, but you see there are many other countries around there. Iran is just one of the many neighbors that China wants to make sure is under its orbit.

keep in mind the strongest supporter for EU is Hungary as long as Orban is in power. Unless the Greeks get their far left (Yanis and his party) back in power, it's always like to shift further away.
I don't know what they can really veto, since EU policies are generally decided by France and Germany.

Well, China already has great relationship with these other countries. Now, it can have warmer relationship with Turkey also, because Turkey is fed up with America. Again, Turkey is one of the 4 powers in West Asia and North Africa along with Saudi, Israel and Iran. If America is down to Israel, then it's pretty much game over there

Guy, it's all about advancing your own national interests. BRICS is only important because it allows China to advance its own interest in having countries depend on China's financial system. We are at a point where America is trying to get everyone to break ties with China. So China's goal needs to be to pull as many country to its orbit and use its infrastructure as possible. Having something like NDB for example supporting more countries in global south is great for China. If India can support it and support further de-dollarization, that's even better. Not every country comes baggage free like Brazil.
Strongest supporter for China in EU is not Hungary. It is objectively Greece. This is a fact, not an opinion. Polls and events prove this.

Polls show Hungarians hate Chinese. Events show that while Hungarians riot against Chinese giving them free money and education (lmao) Greeks are welcoming China and defying anyone who tells them to stop.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

There is no reason to work towards those who are proven to be consistently and irredeemably hostile. Turkey is objectively one of the most hostile country to China in the world next to Japan and South Korea. This is again proven by polls and events. A fact, not an opinion. This has not been for lack of China trying to get Turkey to see things more agreeably. There are over 15 years of extreme hostility from Turkey.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

To the contrary, Pew Research Center polls conducted in Turkey from 2005 to 2019 found that at least 60 percent of the Turkish public has remained skeptical of China. An August 2020 survey conducted by Istanbul Ekonomi Araştırma stated that 61.3 percent of the Turkish public views China either “unfavorably” or “very unfavorably,” as opposed to just 10.6 percent that considers it a friendly country.

Giving any concessions to Turkey risks alienating Greece, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel and basically every country that distrusts them for good reason. Any investment legitimizes their regime and gives them a lifeline. Investment is money given to them up front, after all. Any trade beyond civilian merchandise paid for up front is a risk from these hostile regimes.

You should not trust Turkey to behave in their own interest. You can trust them to behave in what they think is their interest. There's a huge difference. Turkish leaders think that high interest rates cause inflation. With this level of economics knowledge do you really think they even know what their interests are?

And their "lower interest rates will lower inflation" thing is not a 1 time mistake, it is part of their core economic ideology. They've been doing it for 3 years. Suffice to say, its not working.

2021:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


2022:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


2023:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


India behaves the same way. They do not behave in their own interest, they behave in what they think is their interest, which is different. Indian mismanagement has crashed their economy after demonetization.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

India outright steals foreign investments which is why foreign companies are leaving India despite huge geopolitical pressure to invest there.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

You can't trust the competence or self preservation instincts of Turkey and India.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Because turkey and India core interest is against Chinese core interest. I never oppose turkey nor India in brics, a group for de dollarization and multipolarisim, but oppose both of them in SCO or any cooperation better than RCEP.

China don't need turkey trust, turkey can join de dollarization without china getting closer than this. No need to get closer to turkey than other countries in region.
India is already in SCO and Turkey is already an observer member in SCO. No one advocates negotiating with other countries with blinders on. You identify points of mutual interests and work toward there. In the areas where your interest conflicts, you try to lower down tension a little bit.

Although in the case of Turkey, I don't see any major conflicts of mutual interests.
Strongest supporter for China in EU is not Hungary. It is objectively Greece. This is a fact, not an opinion. Polls and events prove this.

Polls show Hungarians hate Chinese. Events show that while Hungarians riot against Chinese giving them free money and education (lmao) Greeks are welcoming China and defying anyone who tells them to stop.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Hungary has the most pro China gov't in EU right now. I don't see think that's debatable.
This is as of last year when Ukraine war already started. China had over 50% approval in Hungary, especially high amongst Orban supporters. Maybe Pew research did their polling with neoliberals in Hungary that hate Orban.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

There is no reason to work towards those who are proven to be consistently and irredeemably hostile. Turkey is objectively one of the most hostile country to China in the world next to Japan and South Korea. This is again proven by polls and events. A fact, not an opinion. This has not been for lack of China trying to get Turkey to see things more agreeably. There are over 15 years of extreme hostility from Turkey.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Actually, 27% approval in Turkey is not all that bad given COVID and where it is in EU. There is plenty of room for improvements there.

Keep in mind that public opinion follows the opinion of elites. Now that elites in Turkey favor engagement with China and Russia, public opinion is likely to go in that direction too. At one point, Russian public was very suspicious of China. When I started at SDF, that was the case. But over time, Russians now see China as their top ally.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Reputedly, the TAF’s senior leadership now includes many “Eurasianists” who favor alliances with Russia and China and are deeply suspicious of NATO, the United States, and the EU.
More recently after the earthquakes
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
see 72 percent viewed China favorably for the relief.

I'm not really sure how China courted Turkey before? I haven't really seen any major evidences of it. It's just another country. And now that some of the more contentious issues are behind them and Turkey is increasingly suspicious of NATO, there is plenty of room for cooperation.

As yourself, do you think the elite opinion in Greece or Turkey is moving toward or away from China?
Giving any concessions to Turkey risks alienating Greece, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel and basically every country that distrusts them for good reason. Any investment legitimizes their regime and gives them a lifeline. Investment is money given to them up front, after all. Any trade beyond civilian merchandise paid for up front is a risk from these hostile regimes.
You haven't really proven any of this. What kind of concessions are you talking about? If Erdogan decides to look East after the election, do you tell him to f off? You seem to be making up this cost which is not apparent to me.

You should not trust Turkey to behave in their own interest. You can trust them to behave in what they think is their interest. There's a huge difference. Turkish leaders think that high interest rates cause inflation. With this level of economics knowledge do you really think they even know what their interests are?

And their "lower interest rates will lower inflation" thing is not a 1 time mistake, it is part of their core economic ideology. They've been doing it for 3 years. Suffice to say, its not working.

2021:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


2022:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


2023:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


India behaves the same way. They do not behave in their own interest, they behave in what they think is their interest, which is different. Indian mismanagement has crashed their economy after demonetization.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

India outright steals foreign investments which is why foreign companies are leaving India despite huge geopolitical pressure to invest there.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

You can't trust the competence or self preservation instincts of Turkey and India.
interesting, now you are moving toward insulting Indian and Turkish elites to make your argument. I mean there are a lot of gov't out there doing stupid things.

I think Turkey and India need to be viewed separately. The former is a regional power whose elites are increasingly looking East. Closer relationship with Turkey can help China dominate the very important MENA region. I have no issue with China selling weapons to Turkey.

India is actually going to be a global power. So there will always be many sources of conflict with India. You work with India in areas of mutual interest, which are many. India is also looking to de-dollarize and for weakening Western power. Getting relationship back to pre-2020 situation should be do-able.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
India is already in SCO and Turkey is already an observer member in SCO. No one advocates negotiating with other countries with blinders on. You identify points of mutual interests and work toward there. In the areas where your interest conflicts, you try to lower down tension a little bit.

Although in the case of Turkey, I don't see any major conflicts of mutual interests.

Hungary has the most pro China gov't in EU right now. I don't see think that's debatable.
This is as of last year when Ukraine war already started. China had over 50% approval in Hungary, especially high amongst Orban supporters. Maybe Pew research did their polling with neoliberals in Hungary that hate Orban.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Actually, 27% approval in Turkey is not all that bad given COVID and where it is in EU. There is plenty of room for improvements there.

Keep in mind that public opinion follows the opinion of elites. Now that elites in Turkey favor engagement with China and Russia, public opinion is likely to go in that direction too. At one point, Russian public was very suspicious of China. When I started at SDF, that was the case. But over time, Russians now see China as their top ally.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

More recently after the earthquakes
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
see 72 percent viewed China favorably for the relief.

I'm not really sure how China courted Turkey before? I haven't really seen any major evidences of it. It's just another country. And now that some of the more contentious issues are behind them and Turkey is increasingly suspicious of NATO, there is plenty of room for cooperation.

As yourself, do you think the elite opinion in Greece or Turkey is moving toward or away from China?

You haven't really proven any of this. What kind of concessions are you talking about? If Erdogan decides to look East after the election, do you tell him to f off? You seem to be making up this cost which is not apparent to me.


interesting, now you are moving toward insulting Indian and Turkish elites to make your argument. I mean there are a lot of gov't out there doing stupid things.

I think Turkey and India need to be viewed separately. The former is a regional power whose elites are increasingly looking East. Closer relationship with Turkey can help China dominate the very important MENA region. I have no issue with China selling weapons to Turkey.

India is actually going to be a global power. So there will always be many sources of conflict with India. You work with India in areas of mutual interest, which are many. India is also looking to de-dollarize and for weakening Western power. Getting relationship back to pre-2020 situation should be do-able.
Greece is still slightly more favorable at 52% positive. But Hungary hasn't harmed China, so if they're comparable, its OK. China has plenty of good will in both Greece and Hungary. The difference of course is that Greece has the support of France while Hungary is distrusted in the EU. Not China's problem but Greece has plenty to offer like ports and ties with France.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Only in Greece are attitudes positive toward China, with 52% favorable and 42% unfavorable.

Turkey likes Chinese aid, not Chinese or China. Erdogan is only 1 person. He will be out of power eventually, and Turkish bureaucratic elites (like the ones I cited) don't like China, as well as the public. There's tons of evidence for this. This means that they can turn against China any time with both elite motivation and popular level justification.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Obviously, if Turkey is willing to make choices in their own interest - not concessions, as it would be in their interest anyhow - such as using RMB as reserve currency, that can be considered the start of creating conditions. But its just the start. The red line is their support of separatism. That is the cost: legitimizing and enabling their repeated support of separatism.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Selling weapons to Turkey is currently not so likely. Turkey is not very high ranked on the Chinese diplomatic ladder, not yet at the level of "comprehensive strategic partnership". This shows a distrust of Turkey. Iran and Greece, on the other hand, is ranked at "comprehensive strategic partnership" which is one of the highest levels of Chinese diplomatic recognition.

Ranking guide:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Turkey not yet CSP:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Iran is CSP:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Greece is CSP:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


1st risk is separatism. The cost is legitimizing their support of separatism and signalling that China is not serious about separatism. That is the wrong and most costly of all signals.

2nd risk, mostly from India, is theft, like what happened to Xiaomi.
 

resistance

Junior Member
Registered Member
Greece is still slightly more favorable at 52% positive. But Hungary hasn't harmed China, so if they're comparable, its OK. China has plenty of good will in both Greece and Hungary. The difference of course is that Greece has the support of France while Hungary is distrusted in the EU. Not China's problem but Greece has plenty to offer like ports and ties with France.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Turkey likes Chinese aid, not Chinese or China. Erdogan is only 1 person. He will be out of power eventually, and Turkish bureaucratic elites (like the ones I cited) don't like China, as well as the public. There's tons of evidence for this. This means that they can turn against China any time with both elite motivation and popular level justification.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Obviously, if Turkey is willing to make choices in their own interest - not concessions, as it would be in their interest anyhow - such as using RMB as reserve currency, that can be considered the start of creating conditions. But its just the start. The red line is their support of separatism. That is the cost: legitimizing and enabling their repeated support of separatism.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Selling weapons to Turkey is currently not so likely. Turkey is not very high ranked on the Chinese diplomatic ladder, not yet at the level of "comprehensive strategic partnership". This shows a distrust of Turkey. Iran and Greece, on the other hand, is ranked at "comprehensive strategic partnership" which is one of the highest levels of Chinese diplomatic recognition.

Ranking guide:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Turkey not yet CSP:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Iran is CSP:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Greece is CSP:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


1st risk is separatism. The cost is legitimizing their support of separatism and signalling that China is not serious about separatism. That is the wrong and most costly of all signals.

2nd risk, mostly from India, is theft, like what happened to Xiaomi.
Even Erdogan stay in power, he's not gonna make turkey reliable to china. He just look toward china just for profits meanwhile try to backstab china at the same time. This always happened in his rules.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Greece is still slightly more favorable at 52% positive. But Hungary hasn't harmed China, so if they're comparable, its OK. China has plenty of good will in both Greece and Hungary. The difference of course is that Greece has the support of France while Hungary is distrusted in the EU. Not China's problem but Greece has plenty to offer like ports and ties with France.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
That's from 2021, before Ukraine conflict
Turkey likes Chinese aid, not Chinese or China. Erdogan is only 1 person. He will be out of power eventually, and Turkish bureaucratic elites (like the ones I cited) don't like China, as well as the public. There's tons of evidence for this. This means that they can turn against China any time with both elite motivation and popular level justification.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Again, things have turned in the past year. Do you realize that Ukraine conflict has changed a lot of things?
Obviously, if Turkey is willing to make choices in their own interest - not concessions, as it would be in their interest anyhow - such as using RMB as reserve currency, that can be considered the start of creating conditions. But its just the start. The red line is their support of separatism. That is the cost: legitimizing and enabling their repeated support of separatism.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Selling weapons to Turkey is currently not so likely. Turkey is not very high ranked on the Chinese diplomatic ladder, not yet at the level of "comprehensive strategic partnership". This shows a distrust of Turkey. Iran and Greece, on the other hand, is ranked at "comprehensive strategic partnership" which is one of the highest levels of Chinese diplomatic recognition.

Ranking guide:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Turkey not yet CSP:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Iran is CSP:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Greece is CSP:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


1st risk is separatism. The cost is legitimizing their support of separatism and signalling that China is not serious about separatism. That is the wrong and most costly of all signals.

2nd risk, mostly from India, is theft, like what happened to Xiaomi.
whether a country is CSP is meaningless at this point. china also established CSP with Germany
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

and uk
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
do you trust those relationships right now?

stop using past to determine the future.
The issue is that EU as a whole has turned against China due to covid and Ukraine conflict and US pressure. public opinion follows elite opinion.

At one point, Turkey was probably really anti-China, but at this point, the current Erdogan gov't has turned against America. So has the Turkish military
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
if this is how Turkey feels toward America, then it only has one alternative, which is warming relationship with China and Russia.
The public opinion will follow. media coverage and public statements will condemn the west and warm toward china and Russia.

Turkey yesterday said "US trying to create terrorist state near Turkiye".

Earliest this month, Erdogan closed the door on US ambassador
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


What do you think will happen after that? There is no way back for Erdogan administration after making statements like this.

Turkey is clearly turning against America and toward multi-polar world, why would you reject that. Turkey will try to warm its ties with China (assuming Erdogan wins). If you are China, why would reject that
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Even Erdogan stay in power, he's not gonna make turkey reliable to china. He just look toward china just for profits meanwhile try to backstab china at the same time. This always happened in his rules.
do you think China is stupid? If China cannot deal with Turkey without getting taken advantage of, then that's Chinese leadership's own stupidity.

Again, just exactly what is China giving up here if Turkey comes and says we want to deepen our relationship with you, work with you in the middle east and de-dollarize? Maybe have some military training and buy weapons from you? We also want to develop more infrastructure project with you. How would any of this be counter to China's interest?

You have to look for common interests and move in that direction
 

resistance

Junior Member
Registered Member
That's from 2021, before Ukraine conflict

Again, things have turned in the past year. Do you realize that Ukraine conflict has changed a lot of things?

whether a country is CSP is meaningless at this point. china also established CSP with Germany
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

and uk
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
do you trust those relationships right now?

stop using past to determine the future.
The issue is that EU as a whole has turned against China due to covid and Ukraine conflict and US pressure. public opinion follows elite opinion.

At one point, Turkey was probably really anti-China, but at this point, the current Erdogan gov't has turned against America. So has the Turkish military
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
if this is how Turkey feels toward America, then it only has one alternative, which is warming relationship with China and Russia.
The public opinion will follow. media coverage and public statements will condemn the west and warm toward china and Russia.

Turkey yesterday said "US trying to create terrorist state near Turkiye".

Earliest this month, Erdogan closed the door on US ambassador
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


What do you think will happen after that?

Turkey is clearly turning against America and toward multi-polar world, why would you reject that. Turkey will try to warm its ties with China (assuming Erdogan wins). If you are China, why would reject that
If pass year popularity can't determine? How could this year popularity determine then? After Russia Ukraine conflict, turkey send weapons to Ukraine too. When should popularity can be determined?

We determine from their forever agenda like pan Turks in Azerbaijan and xinjiang that both china Iran don't like or neo ottomanism which Saudis dislike. This is anti china that's why they can't join china bloc. Let them join bloc means turkey can backstab at anytime.
 
Top