Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

FairAndUnbiased · Apr 22, 2023

tphuang said:
well, China already has saudi arabia, egypt, algeria, iran, iraq, uae, syria .... on its side. The only major powers left in the region are Israel and Turkey. Once it gets Turkey in its corner, it has the entire region under its control.

As for rail with Europe, the goal of that is to leave Europe more dependent on China and more deindustrialized. Everything that China builds with BRI is with the end goal of strengthening its own economic and industrial positioning. Over the course of my adult lifetime, We've gone from a situation where Europe was a dominant power in the world over China to one of increasing irrelevance. Do you think this happens in vacuum?

I gave you two links, lol. it's not my fault you didn't look into the first one

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Turkey Imports from China Value Year
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$9.03B 2022
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$9.03B 2022

now comparing that to Iran

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so China's export of machineries and electrical equipment to Turkey alone was twice as much as all of its exports to Iran

yet, that's the path BRI has taken. BRI railway passage does not go through Iran. Please read up on this

China can easily destroy Iran. Let's be clear here

I have no problem with Russia. Russia is a great market and keep getting better

I agree that Turkey relationship cannot be at the risk of alienating Saudis. But given the entire rapprochement in the region, there is no reason why the 2 countries can't get along. After all, Saudis have achieved peace with Iran. And these countries are all negotiating a peaceful transition for Syria.

still in the negative ratings

What are these huge concessions that I'm offering Turkey? How is Turkey competing against China?
hmm, how am I sucking up to Turkey and India? How is having better relationship with India or Turkey going to hurt relationship with Saudi, Iran & Russia? lol, you are drawing a lot of conclusions here.

You see, Iran has no other choice. So China doesn't have to treat it well. It just needs to offer Iran the bare minimum and that's already better than what everyone else is offering Iran.

China needs to work with any non-aligned country that's interested in multi-polarism. multi-polar world needs to be China's main goal until that's achieved.

China can't project power to Iran so no, China cannot destroy Iran. It would also be a stupid own goal to attempt to do so.

That's why even though the US has 100x more motivation and capability to destroy Iran, they don't do so, because it might result in a humiliation and getting bogged down.

And yes, Iran has a choice - they can always just surrender and become a US vassal. ez pz. What now, US then has full control of Straits of Hormuz and can simply order their vassals to stop exporting oil. I bet US will gladly accept an Iranian surrender and being anti-China in exchange for lifting sanctions.

Iran is comparable to Turkey, same order of magnitude of exports (like you said within 2x or so), and has slightly more imports to China. I don't see the drastic difference.

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Here is how Turkey competes with China:

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see the overlapping industries: automotive components, metallurgy, textiles. Cars don't overlap in the 2020 data, but they will now, as China is a major car exporter as well.

You advocate tons of concessions to Turkey. Here's a brief list:

1. antagonizes Greece, one of the earliest BRI countries, most supportive partner inside the EU and a bilateral ally of France, another top partner within the EU. In exchange get a declining basketcase with 1/2 their GDP per capita and dropping, with 6x more anti-Chinese populace than pro-Chinese.

2. taking the losing side of the Middle East conflict, since Turkey is distrusted by Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran simultaneously. Meanwhile Turkey has made 0 gains in the Middle East with all of their foreign policy objectives failed and can only occupy a few km of Syria during a civil war.

3. being perceived as attempting to take allegiance of a core NATO ally away from the US in a region more important to the US than to China. This is needlessly escalating without proportionate payoff. Even in the best case scenario of Turkey quits NATO, so what? Does that solve Taiwan?

India is the same thing. It is a basketcase that was given tons of aid yet still has low GDP per capita and no resources. it just stole

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Costs of engaging India as if they were honest and equal: 1. probability of being backstabbed 2. antagonizes Pakistan and Bangladesh 3. legitimizes all their previous actions.

FairAndUnbiased · Apr 22, 2023

So what do I advocate to do with Turkey and India? Nothing so far. Trade but don't give them any special treatment, don't trust anything they say and keep distance to be safe from their eventual implosion. No government or SOE investment or involvement. Just leave them alone.

if they prosper, good for them. and if they die, they die. if they escalate, punish with sanctions and support for more allies in the region. and if they want to create the conditions, they don't start at 0, they start in the negatives.

resistance · Apr 22, 2023

This is India.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1649319111577698304

drowingfish · Apr 22, 2023

56860 said:
I have no idea. I would imagine the majority don't, considering the Orwellian levels of brainwashing, surveillance and control the state exerts over every aspect of one's life. Logically delusion on such a scale requires that the vast majority don't know what's really going on, otherwise the whole thing would fall a part.

even if DPRK people have no knowledge of the outside world, many amongst them would still have memories of life before the 90s, which was quite decent.

AssassinsMace · Apr 22, 2023

Let me interpret Ursula Von Der Leyen's little speech... The US's tactic against China isn't working and Europe is going suffer for following it. Of course they have to maintain their fake moral high ground by repeating their excuses, not reasons, because if their morality were as important as they claim, they wouldn't be changing from decoupling to de-risking. If the EU doesn't need China, then no need for China at all. Decoupling is too strong of a word because you need two sides to decouple. They're using "de-risking" now because they still want to make money from China but prevent China from making money from them. A more appropriate term to describe what they want is parasite.

The EU has no problem when the West is the primary benefactor of a world dependent upon them. But they see a problem when they charge China is doing that to the world. What's the difference? Because they're the light of the world... The garden compared to everyone else's jungle. The world is turning away from the dollar dominated West because they're abusing their economic power they have right now. They ain't following the law of the jungle where might makes right? It ain't just China or Russia. Everyone sees the threat of the dollar dominating the world because the West abuses their power. And again they didn't see that coming because they'd rather believe people want to be around them because they're embodiment of beautiful perfection.

The US thinks it's the high school star quarterback and rest of the world are the high school cheerleaders waiting with bated breath next to their phone for him to call. So just imagine when the high school quarterback does call and is being ghosted by the one cheerleader that just doesn't see it... Now it seems the US is readying another series of sanctions against China to get their attention. The US/West has to resort to these tactics because nothing they predicted how things were going to go have happened. Trump said China would collapse day one of his trade war thus China would surrender to every US demand. We're a long way from that.

tphuang · Apr 22, 2023

resistance said:
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The huge concession you gonna give is Greece as to get turkey. This will definitely alienate Saudis and Egypt as they try to sway Greece to join them.

The fact that they accused Saudis/Egypt of betrayal shows that they believe these other Muslims should be on their side. I mean the recent peace negotiations over Syria all involve coordination bw Saudis, Iran and Turkey.

resistance said:
Iran is north Korea of middle east. Iran security is china security. You can do anything Iran don't like but you must not do anything that harm Iran

The reason to get Greece over turkey is not only get Greece itself, it's to get Western EU countries more favorable to china and skeptical to US as US support turkey against china.

hmm, Iran is definitely not the NK of middle east. China has a long standing mutual defense treaty with NK and nobody else.

As for the latter, it depends on how much sway you think Greece can have with EU. Everything has to be evaluated. If Greece can make EU more friendly, then good on it. But from where I can see, it's been silent this entire time while the crazies from German green party have taken over EU decision making.

FairAndUnbiased said:
China can't project power to Iran so no, China cannot destroy Iran. It would also be a stupid own goal to attempt to do so.

oh, China certainly can. It wouldn't want to do it, but it certainly can

FairAndUnbiased said:
That's why even though the US has 100x more motivation and capability to destroy Iran, they don't do so, because it might result in a humiliation and getting bogged down.

That's only if your goal is a land invasion. But if Iran is not behaving properly, PLA can certainly launch land attacks that decimate IRGC. Take a look at how close Xinjiang is to Tehran

FairAndUnbiased said:
And yes, Iran has a choice - they can always just surrender and become a US vassal. ez pz. What now, US then has full control of Straits of Hormuz and can simply order their vassals to stop exporting oil. I bet US will gladly accept an Iranian surrender and being anti-China in exchange for lifting sanctions.

Iran is comparable to Turkey, same order of magnitude of exports (like you said within 2x or so), and has slightly more imports to China. I don't see the drastic difference.

What i said is Turkish import of Chinese machines and electronics alone is 2x that of all Iranian import.

FairAndUnbiased said:
Here is how Turkey competes with China:

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see the overlapping industries: automotive components, metallurgy, textiles. Cars don't overlap in the 2020 data, but they will now, as China is a major car exporter as well.

right, you are concerned about this Turkish competition against Chinese products. Com'on, let's aim a little higher. Chinese industries have destroyed Japan, SK and Germans. Now, it needs to be concerned about Turkey?

FairAndUnbiased said:
You advocate tons of concessions to Turkey. Here's a brief list:

1. antagonizes Greece, one of the earliest BRI countries, most supportive partner inside the EU and a bilateral ally of France, another top partner within the EU. In exchange get a declining basketcase with 1/2 their GDP per capita and dropping, with 6x more anti-Chinese populace than pro-Chinese.

No, i don't advocate that. I advocate closer relationship with Turkey to increase multi-polar world. big difference. You can support Turkish goals of be more independent of America and helping China in middle East without outright supporting Turkey to get into a real conflict with Greece. That's a big difference

FairAndUnbiased said:
2. taking the losing side of the Middle East conflict, since Turkey is distrusted by Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran simultaneously. Meanwhile Turkey has made 0 gains in the Middle East with all of their foreign policy objectives failed and can only occupy a few km of Syria during a civil war.

actually, Turkey right now is working with Russia, Iran and Saudis to resolve the Syrian issue peacefully. All part of a bigger Russia/China initiative to get America out of Syria and eventually the middle east. So, what's the problem.

FairAndUnbiased said:
3. being perceived as attempting to take allegiance of a core NATO ally away from the US in a region more important to the US than to China. This is needlessly escalating without proportionate payoff. Even in the best case scenario of Turkey quits NATO, so what? Does that solve Taiwan?

Nothing solves Taiwan. Turkey is rebelling against NATO on its own. It's willingly showing up at SCO meetings and cozying up with Russians. Seems like a made up rationale on your part.

Again, China's interest is a multi-polar world and a weakened western control over rest of the world and a weaker dollar. It will want to pursue every avenue to get there.

FairAndUnbiased said:
India is the same thing. It is a basketcase that was given tons of aid yet still has low GDP per capita and no resources. it just stole

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Costs of engaging India as if they were honest and equal: 1. probability of being backstabbed 2. antagonizes Pakistan and Bangladesh 3. legitimizes all their previous actions.

hmm, I don't ever recall saying that China needs to be bffs with India at the cost of its relationship with Pakistan & Bangladesh. I'm the most pro-Pakistan/CPEC person here. You are just making things up now. China can advance mutual interests with India like multi-polar world and de-dollarization without becoming friends with India. It just needs better relationship with India than it has now.

I don't see what India's poverty rate have anything to do with this. There are so many Chinese people looking down on India. Why keep looking down on Indians? Just look at your reply. You cannot make an argument about India without insulting it.

FairAndUnbiased · Apr 22, 2023

tphuang said:
The fact that they accused Saudis/Egypt of betrayal shows that they believe these other Muslims should be on their side. I mean the recent peace negotiations over Syria all involve coordination bw Saudis, Iran and Turkey.

hmm, Iran is definitely not the NK of middle east. China has a long standing mutual defense treaty with NK and nobody else.

As for the latter, it depends on how much sway you think Greece can have with EU. Everything has to be evaluated. If Greece can make EU more friendly, then good on it. But from where I can see, it's been silent this entire time while the crazies from German green party have taken over EU decision making.

oh, China certainly can. It wouldn't want to do it, but it certainly can

That's only if your goal is a land invasion. But if Iran is not behaving properly, PLA can certainly launch land attacks that decimate IRGC. Take a look at how close Xinjiang is to Tehran

What i said is Turkish import of Chinese machines and electronics alone is 2x that of all Iranian import.

right, you are concerned about this Turkish competition against Chinese products. Com'on, let's aim a little higher. Chinese industries have destroyed Japan, SK and Germans. Now, it needs to be concerned about Turkey?

No, i don't advocate that. I advocate closer relationship with Turkey to increase multi-polar world. big difference. You can support Turkish goals of be more independent of America and helping China in middle East without outright supporting Turkey to get into a real conflict with Greece. That's a big difference

actually, Turkey right now is working with Russia, Iran and Saudis to resolve the Syrian issue peacefully. All part of a bigger Russia/China initiative to get America out of Syria and eventually the middle east. So, what's the problem.

Nothing solves Taiwan. Turkey is rebelling against NATO on its own. It's willingly showing up at SCO meetings and cozying up with Russians. Seems like a made up rationale on your part.

Again, China's interest is a multi-polar world and a weakened western control over rest of the world and a weaker dollar. It will want to pursue every avenue to get there.

hmm, I don't ever recall saying that China needs to be bffs with India at the cost of its relationship with Pakistan & Bangladesh. I'm the most pro-Pakistan/CPEC person here. You are just making things up now. China can advance mutual interests with India like multi-polar world and de-dollarization without becoming friends with India. It just needs better relationship with India than it has now.

I don't see what India's poverty rate have anything to do with this. There are so many Chinese people looking down on India. Why keep looking down on Indians? Just look at your reply. You cannot make an argument about India without insulting it.

Support of Turkey and India outside of restricted civilian trade would simply embolden their aggression. In particular, investing in them is worse than investing in Ukraine where Motor Sich was stolen. China woke up and no longer interacted with Ukraine under right wing management. it is better to stay out of a hostile market before being bitten too hard.

India stole the money of Chinese corporations like Xiaomi. This is what happens when India is merely ignored. Imagine taxpayer funded efforts to bring them on side?

Why do I mention Indian poverty? Because it is symptomatic of their problems. They act like they can behave with impunity despite real constraints. Note their aggression in South Tibet. They are the ones who refuse to sign a treaty, not China.

Reality will catch up with them but not if China enables them by giving them a diplomatic and economic lifeline. Unless cut off from investment that enable their behavior, they will continue to behave with impunity.

Turkey is working with Saudi and Iran to resolve Syria because they've failed to achieve their goals. They didn't work with anyone when they were invading Syria and they didn't stop until their tanks got blown up by ATGMs. This shows they don't stop a blatantly illegal and aggressive action until they are stopped by someone else.

No one trusts them for good reason.

resistance · Apr 22, 2023

tphuang said:
The fact that they accused Saudis/Egypt of betrayal shows that they believe these other Muslims should be on their side. I mean the recent peace negotiations over Syria all involve coordination bw Saudis, Iran and Turkey.

hmm, Iran is definitely not the NK of middle east. China has a long standing mutual defense treaty with NK and nobody else.

As for the latter, it depends on how much sway you think Greece can have with EU. Everything has to be evaluated. If Greece can make EU more friendly, then good on it. But from where I can see, it's been silent this entire time while the crazies from German green party have taken over EU decision making.

oh, China certainly can. It wouldn't want to do it, but it certainly can

That's only if your goal is a land invasion. But if Iran is not behaving properly, PLA can certainly launch land attacks that decimate IRGC. Take a look at how close Xinjiang is to Tehran

What i said is Turkish import of Chinese machines and electronics alone is 2x that of all Iranian import.

right, you are concerned about this Turkish competition against Chinese products. Com'on, let's aim a little higher. Chinese industries have destroyed Japan, SK and Germans. Now, it needs to be concerned about Turkey?

No, i don't advocate that. I advocate closer relationship with Turkey to increase multi-polar world. big difference. You can support Turkish goals of be more independent of America and helping China in middle East without outright supporting Turkey to get into a real conflict with Greece. That's a big difference

actually, Turkey right now is working with Russia, Iran and Saudis to resolve the Syrian issue peacefully. All part of a bigger Russia/China initiative to get America out of Syria and eventually the middle east. So, what's the problem.

Nothing solves Taiwan. Turkey is rebelling against NATO on its own. It's willingly showing up at SCO meetings and cozying up with Russians. Seems like a made up rationale on your part.

Again, China's interest is a multi-polar world and a weakened western control over rest of the world and a weaker dollar. It will want to pursue every avenue to get there.

hmm, I don't ever recall saying that China needs to be bffs with India at the cost of its relationship with Pakistan & Bangladesh. I'm the most pro-Pakistan/CPEC person here. You are just making things up now. China can advance mutual interests with India like multi-polar world and de-dollarization without becoming friends with India. It just needs better relationship with India than it has now.

I don't see what India's poverty rate have anything to do with this. There are so many Chinese people looking down on India. Why keep looking down on Indians? Just look at your reply. You cannot make an argument about India without insulting it.

What I mean is Iran is strategic location to china that's as important as north Korea even there's no defense treaty with. North Korea block US from entering northeastern china the same with Iran blocking US entering xinjiang.

Greece did veto EU decisions about antagonizing china several times. This do stop worse thing that EU will impose on china. This is far good enough. Also china will get deeper relation with France for prioritize Greece over turkey.

There are much more countries china can get closer to achieve multipolar world. With or Without turkey it's not gonna make that huge shifts. Rather go for Egypt, Algeria or any countries that will coordinate well for Saudi Iran warming relationship (both Saudis and Iran hostile to turkey now). Closer to turkey will definitely ruin it.

FairAndUnbiased · Apr 22, 2023

resistance said:
What I mean is Iran is strategic location to china that's as important as north Korea even there's no defense treaty with. North Korea block US from entering northeastern china the same with Iran blocking US entering xinjiang.

Greece did veto EU decisions about antagonizing china several times. This do stop worse thing that EU will impose on china. This is far good enough. Also china will get deeper relation with France for prioritize Greece over turkey.

There are much more countries china can get closer to achieve multipolar world. With or Without turkey it's not gonna make that huge shifts. Rather go for Egypt, Algeria or any countries that will coordinate well for Saudi Iran warming relationship (both Saudis and Iran hostile to turkey now). Closer to turkey will definitely ruin it.

Definitely. It'll be nice if Turkey or India changed but we can't be responsible for their change and they don't want to change.

This isn't a "if they're not with me they're against me" deal. China can deal with Greece, Singapore, etc after all. But the difference is, they show honesty up front about their interests and limits. No more "Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai" with a knife behind the back. Never again.

tphuang · Apr 22, 2023

FairAndUnbiased said:
Support of Turkey and India outside of restricted civilian trade would simply embolden their aggression. In particular, investing in them is worse than investing in Ukraine where Motor Sich was stolen. China woke up and no longer interacted with Ukraine under right wing management. it is better to stay out of a hostile market before being bitten too hard.

What's your evidence for this? You can't give up on every relationship just because they are hostile now.
You can work toward smoothing out relationships by focusing on mutual interests.
Every country cares about its own core interest. And you need to do it in a way that's not condescending to them

FairAndUnbiased said:
India stole the money of Chinese corporations like Xiaomi. This is what happens when India is merely ignored. Imagine taxpayer funded efforts to bring them on side?

Why do I mention Indian poverty? Because it is symptomatic of their problems. They act like they can behave with impunity despite real constraints. Note their aggression in South Tibet. They are the ones who refuse to sign a treaty, not China.

They would say the same about China. Again, why do you look down on India? Think about it, how do people talk about Indians on this forum? Even aside from the nationalistic competition, the type of language used on Indian people are very offensive. Think about it for real. India has its problems, but you definitely cannot blame the entire relationship failure on India here.

FairAndUnbiased said:
Reality will catch up with them but not if China enables them by giving them a diplomatic and economic lifeline. Unless cut off from investment that enable their behavior, they will continue to behave with impunity.

What are you talking about? How is china giving them a diplomatic or economic lifeline? India's manufacturing is entirely dependent on Chinese supply chain. China runs huge trade surplus with both countries.

FairAndUnbiased said:
Turkey is working with Saudi and Iran to resolve Syria because they've failed to achieve their goals. They didn't work with anyone when they were invading Syria and they didn't stop until their tanks got blown up by ATGMs. This shows they don't stop a blatantly illegal and aggressive action until they are stopped by someone else.

No one trusts them for good reason.

You should not trust in most nations, but you can trust in countries acting toward their core interest.

Remember, China's relationship with Russia was very rocky for decades and now Russia is China's strongest ally because of mutual core interest. Find other countries that advances your interest.

At one point, SK was friendly with China. Now, it hates China more than any other country in the world, because being close to China is bad for its core interests

resistance said:
What I mean is Iran is strategic location to china that's as important as north Korea even there's no defense treaty with. North Korea block US from entering northeastern china the same with Iran blocking US entering xinjiang.

I see, but you see there are many other countries around there. Iran is just one of the many neighbors that China wants to make sure is under its orbit.

resistance said:
Greece did veto EU decisions about antagonizing china several times. This do stop worse thing that EU will impose on china. This is far good enough. Also china will get deeper relation with France for prioritize Greece over turkey.

keep in mind the strongest supporter for EU is Hungary as long as Orban is in power. Unless the Greeks get their far left (Yanis and his party) back in power, it's always like to shift further away.
I don't know what they can really veto, since EU policies are generally decided by France and Germany.

resistance said:
There are much more countries china can get closer to achieve multipolar world. With or Without turkey it's not gonna make that huge shifts. Rather go for Egypt, Algeria or any countries that will coordinate well for Saudi Iran warming relationship (both Saudis and Iran hostile to turkey now). Closer to turkey will definitely ruin it.

Well, China already has great relationship with these other countries. Now, it can have warmer relationship with Turkey also, because Turkey is fed up with America. Again, Turkey is one of the 4 powers in West Asia and North Africa along with Saudi, Israel and Iran. If America is down to Israel, then it's pretty much game over there

Guy, it's all about advancing your own national interests. BRICS is only important because it allows China to advance its own interest in having countries depend on China's financial system. We are at a point where America is trying to get everyone to break ties with China. So China's goal needs to be to pull as many country to its orbit and use its infrastructure as possible. Having something like NDB for example supporting more countries in global south is great for China. If India can support it and support further de-dollarization, that's even better. Not every country comes baggage free like Brazil.

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier

resistance

Junior Member

drowingfish

Junior Member

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General

tphuang

Lieutenant General

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier

resistance

Junior Member

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier

tphuang

Lieutenant General

Turkey Imports from China	Value	Year
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!	$9.03B	2022
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!	$9.03B	2022