Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

In4ser · Apr 21, 2023

Erdogan is dishonest but if he’s replaced, China should try again and reach out to Turkey. National interests may not change but some leaders are more trustworthy than others.

India is well India. They’re too proud and stubborn for any substantial relationship with China other than superficial trade. That’s unlikely to change regardless of leadership or political party as the Congress Party seems more Pro-Western than the BJP.

Minm · Apr 21, 2023

tphuang said:
That's in fact what they are. Turkey is not advantaged over most other nations. It just happens to not be a pariah state like North Korea.

You might want to take a look at North Korea's GDP before calling it the biggest potential growth market for China.

Exactly, North Korea has potential to grow but hasn't done so yet. Turkey has been extremely advantaged to be given a security guarantee by NATO and the EU customs union, aid averaging more than half a billion a year from the EU (plus a few billion for hosting
Syrian refugees) and decades of access to western development financing and aid. And yet, before the Syrian civil war, GDP per capita was about the same in both countries.

Actually if I would call anyone a loser, it'd be your favourite, Saudi Arabia which has lost the war in Yemen and in Syria and failed in the blockade of Qatar. Almost anything MBS touches, fails. But it's not very productive to label others.

The world is as it is. The most successful countries today are those that chose to align with the US, while the US was the undisputed economic leader of the world. That includes China. The world of tomorrow can be shaped by China and China should help to make those countries rich and powerful that can be useful allies, rather than dangerous rivals. Turkey and India both dream of taking territory from China if they were able to do so. They can be useful to China in very specific circumstances, but it's a double edged sword.

56860 · Apr 21, 2023

Minm said:
Exactly, North Korea has potential to grow but hasn't done so yet. Turkey has been extremely advantaged to be given a security guarantee by NATO and the EU customs union, aid averaging more than half a billion a year from the EU (plus a few billion for hosting
Syrian refugees) and decades of access to western development financing and aid. And yet, before the Syrian civil war, GDP per capita was about the same in both countries.

Actually if I would call anyone a loser, it'd be your favourite, Saudi Arabia which has lost the war in Yemen and in Syria and failed in the blockade of Qatar. Almost anything MBS touches, fails. But it's not very productive to label others.

The world is as it is. The most successful countries today are those that chose to align with the US, while the US was the undisputed economic leader of the world. That includes China. The world of tomorrow can be shaped by China and China should help to make those countries rich and powerful that can be useful allies, rather than dangerous rivals. Turkey and India both dream of taking territory from China if they were able to do so. They can be useful to China in very specific circumstances, but it's a double edged sword.

Fun fact, CPC has tried to persuade NK officials on more than one occasion to introduce economic reforms. For example, In 2006, Guangdong party members invited Kim Jong-il to Shenzhen to showcase the success economic reform had brought to China. It is in China's interest to have a rich and prosperous North Korea because that means more trade, investments and markets for the Chinese export machine. Unfortunately this conflicts with the Kim dynasty's goal of staying in power so NK will remain a basketcase.

tphuang · Apr 21, 2023

Minm said:
Exactly, North Korea has potential to grow but hasn't done so yet. Turkey has been extremely advantaged to be given a security guarantee by NATO and the EU customs union, aid averaging more than half a billion a year from the EU (plus a few billion for hosting
Syrian refugees) and decades of access to western development financing and aid. And yet, before the Syrian civil war, GDP per capita was about the same in both countries.

Actually if I would call anyone a loser, it'd be your favourite, Saudi Arabia which has lost the war in Yemen and in Syria and failed in the blockade of Qatar. Almost anything MBS touches, fails. But it's not very productive to label others.

The world is as it is. The most successful countries today are those that chose to align with the US, while the US was the undisputed economic leader of the world. That includes China. The world of tomorrow can be shaped by China and China should help to make those countries rich and powerful that can be useful allies, rather than dangerous rivals. Turkey and India both dream of taking territory from China if they were able to do so. They can be useful to China in very specific circumstances, but it's a double edged sword.

Yet Saudi Arabia has money and can buy Chinese goods. And NK cannot. You can keep crying foul, but that's the reality. NK growing 10x in the next decade would still be an irrelevant economy.

Nothing wrong with cheering for the underdogs, but there is a reason why things are the way they are. NK and Iran have no choice but to work with China. China needs a lot more friends than them.

You may not like Turkey, but Turkey has many advantages that warrant Chinese attention

FairAndUnbiased · Apr 21, 2023

tphuang said:
What are you talking about? I actually don't understand half of the stuff you wrote here.

I think what @BoraTas and @CasualObserver wrote make sense. Every country has their own interest. If Turkish people are tired of US hegemony and meddling (as evidence recently with Erdogan giving the finger to Jeff Flake), then China should use that opportunity to get closer to Turkey. Keep in mind that the opposition party was for closer relationship with China before, so there are room for improved China/Turkey relationship regardless of who wins the election.

I really don't get some people on this forum who are against better relationship with Turkey and India. You don't need to be their best friend, but if they share the mutual goal of weaker American hegemony, then there are places to cooperate. Do you only want to be stuck with losers like Iran and North Korea?

Turkey, India was given substantial aid during the Cold War yet they're still developing countries poorer than China. North Korea and Iran have proven that they can survive sanctions and thrive without them.

Greece has proven with action that it will help China, and unlike your assertion, Greeks have a high approval rate of China while Turkey has a low approval rate of China.

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Unlike your assertion, Turkey does not have 'substantial advantages' vs. Iran as it is a competitor to China in all markets and cannot offer control of critical geopolitical chokepoints for China. Iran is not a competitor and it offers control of the Straits of Hormuz.

tphuang · Apr 21, 2023

FairAndUnbiased said:
Turkey, India was given substantial aid during the Cold War yet they're still developing countries poorer than China. North Korea and Iran have proven that they can survive sanctions and thrive without them.

Greece has proven with action that it will help China, and unlike your assertion, Greeks have a high approval rate of China while Turkey has a low approval rate of China.

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That's from 2019. Do you want to see where things are at now after covid and non-stop anti-China propaganda and Ukraine conflict?

The only European country with still net favorable toward China is Hungary.

Difference between Turkey and Greece is that Turkey at least tries to have an independent foreign policy.

It will likely never be a great friend of China, but there is plenty of room for things to improve.

FairAndUnbiased said:
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That's from 2017

FairAndUnbiased said:
Unlike your assertion, Turkey does not have 'substantial advantages' vs. Iran as it is a competitor to China in all markets and cannot offer control of critical geopolitical chokepoints for China. Iran is not a competitor and it offers control of the Straits of Hormuz.

every rail route from China to Europe that doesn't include Russia has to go through Turkey.
Turkey also has control over Bosporus straits.
China doesn't need Iran to control straits of Hormuz.
Turkey also has 70% of world's Boron reserves.

Where are these places that Turkey is competing with China in?

resistance · Apr 21, 2023

tphuang said:
economic cooperation with India & Turkey has been very good for China. I have no issue with China selling weapons to Turkey. I don't see India buying weapons from China in a million years.

As for Greece, you might want to check China's popularity with Greece before calling them China's good friend. Greece is firmly in the NATO/EU camp. Unless the far left is in power, don't count on Greece staying friendly with China.

there are reasons why Turkey is in NATO despite being antagonist toward America. Think about it. Turkey is what I call a swing power.

The problem is why should china sell weapons to turkey when it can go back against china.

You can also check china popularity in turkey it's not different from greece. Turkish is a bit more hostile to china due to xinjiang issues. So Greece is far better friends, at least greece can't be use to antagonize china even far right win. Supporting Greece will make china and western European countries closer and reduce hostilities due to china Russia relations.

Turkey is in NATO because US need it. US compromise and tolerate turkey far more than any US allies. Saudis drop America because of this. The normalization of Iran Saudis mainly based on hostilities towards turkish influence.
So getting turkey means we will lose far more than Greece.

resistance · Apr 21, 2023

tphuang said:
That's from 2019. Do you want to see where things are at now after covid and non-stop anti-China propaganda and Ukraine conflict?

The only European country with still net favorable toward China is Hungary.

Difference between Turkey and Greece is that Turkey at least tries to have an independent foreign policy.

It will likely never be a great friend of China, but there is plenty of room for things to improve.

That's from 2017

every rail route from China to Europe that doesn't include Russia has to go through Turkey.
Turkey also has control over Bosporus straits.
China doesn't need Iran to control straits of Hormuz.
Turkey also has 70% of world's Boron reserves.

Where are these places that Turkey is competing with China in?

Pakistan have no independence like Greece now but India and turkey having the same independence level. So china should prioritize India over Pakistan just because trying to be independent?

Weather good or bad relation with turkey, china will get the railway anyways because it's too good for turkey to refused. Turkey can try shut china out but it will hurt itself far more than hurting china.

FairAndUnbiased · Apr 21, 2023

tphuang said:
That's from 2019. Do you want to see where things are at now after covid and non-stop anti-China propaganda and Ukraine conflict?

The only European country with still net favorable toward China is Hungary.

Difference between Turkey and Greece is that Turkey at least tries to have an independent foreign policy.

It will likely never be a great friend of China, but there is plenty of room for things to improve.

That's from 2017

every rail route from China to Europe that doesn't include Russia has to go through Turkey.
Turkey also has control over Bosporus straits.
China doesn't need Iran to control straits of Hormuz.
Turkey also has 70% of world's Boron reserves.

Where are these places that Turkey is competing with China in?

Bosphorus is unimportant to China, it is only important to Russia. Hormuz is where most of China's oil comes from.

What's the problem with rail going through Russia when going through Turkey requires either sea transshipment through the Caspian, going through Russia anyways, or going through Iran? There's no path that goes to Europe by land that doesn't pass Russia or Iran.

Turkey is a manufacturing economy with low energy resources, just a poorly managed one. China is also a manufacturing economy. Turkey doesn't buy Chinese tools. Thus any Turkish export is a competitor to Chinese exports. Iran has resources and buys Chinese tools, and thus their exports help China directly.

You are free to find more up to date data, since you made the initial assertion that Greece has lower approval rates of China than Turkey does.

Strangelove · Apr 21, 2023

FairAndUnbiased said:
Turkey, India was given substantial aid during the Cold War yet they're still developing countries poorer than China. North Korea and Iran have proven that they can survive sanctions and thrive without them.

Greece has proven with action that it will help China, and unlike your assertion, Greeks have a high approval rate of China while Turkey has a low approval rate of China.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

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Unlike your assertion, Turkey does not have 'substantial advantages' vs. Iran as it is a competitor to China in all markets and cannot offer control of critical geopolitical chokepoints for China. Iran is not a competitor and it offers control of the Straits of Hormuz.

Lithuania more favorable than Hungary? Wow...

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

In4ser

Junior Member

Minm

Junior Member

56860

Senior Member

tphuang

Lieutenant General

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier

tphuang

Lieutenant General

resistance

Junior Member

resistance

Junior Member

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier

Strangelove

Colonel