Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

tphuang

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Saying china is picking KSA over Iran is rather silly imho. More wishing thinking than anything. China wants to trade with both and not get involved in west Asia security issues. Unless you want China to follow in the footsteps of beloved US of A. That's much is clear so far. KSA is also not forcing china to pick one or the other.
What does Iran have to offer to China? You are wrong about that last part. KSA and the rest of the GCC would want to know that if China had to chose, it would chose them over Iran. China made that point strong and clear this weekend. I don't know why people can't see that still.

A strong Iran is not good for China. It's too independent mind. It doesn't have respect for Chinese people. It likes Europeans more.

At this point, I'd pick Israel ahead of Iran. At least Israel is still cooperating with China despite all of the US pressure. If Western countries throw Iran a bone, would it even bother with China again?

Yep, pretty clear that China is saying it's prioritizing Saudi views in its Middle East disputes.


Guys, focus on this
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Western countries are overplaying their hand with the oil cap and the sanctions of Russian assets in Western financial system. They want to break this nonsensical oil cap and provide an alternative to Western financial system that doesn't result in their assets be seized. This is why they are embracing China.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Who knows for how long the Saudi oil reserves will last? Iran's oil reserves are likely in a lot better shape since they did not explore them nearly as much. And Qatar and Iran basically have a shared gas field. Plus Qatar and the rest of the GCC basically do not get along. I think China would be making a big mistake if they get cozy with the Saudis and their allies to the detriment of Iran. China should just get along with all of them and not pick sides. As for pipelines from Iran, those would have to go either through Afghanistan or Pakistan to reach China. And the Saudis, which sponsor Pakistan, together with the US will not allow it to happen.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
Who knows for how long the Saudi oil reserves will last? Iran's oil reserves are likely in a lot better shape since they did not explore them nearly as much. And Qatar and Iran basically have a shared gas field. Plus Qatar and the rest of the GCC basically do not get along. I think China would be making a big mistake if they get cozy with the Saudis and their allies to the detriment of Iran. China should just get along with all of them and not pick sides. As for pipelines from Iran, those would have to go either through Afghanistan or Pakistan to reach China. And the Saudis, which sponsor Pakistan, together with the US will not allow it to happen.

Saudi Arabia has a very large oil reserve, even for the proven one would last 76 yrs ..... I'd imagine the actual reserve is much higher

China's proven reserve keep going up as more and more new oil fields discovered in China and around the world. I have no concern of we are running out of oil .. plenty of it. I remember we talked in 70s and 80s that ".... we are running out of oil and only last 20 years...."

The only limiting factor is the price of oil ... if the price high .. more and more oil field will be discovered ..

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infinity_wor;d

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Well, here are some facts about Iran.

1) They have been in a secret war with the US and Israel for decades. Riot(or "peaceful protest" in west MSM), started by brainwashed college students then turn to nationwide riots, nearly one in 2-3 years. Misinformation about Iran is everywhere. Both sides are throwing drones for this secret war, losing hundreds of drones a year. Agents and special forces are also fighting underground.

2) After decades of military development, the Iranians successfully transform their army into something like PVA in the Korean war. Poor equipment, but good tactics (especially good when fighting against the US army in mountains or other complex terrains, like modern cities, proved in Iraq and Syria) and well-trained soldiers, mobilized by Islamic religions. Then they put their money on missiles. Abandon all aircraft but drones. In this way, they do not need to develop expensive stuff like tanks and stealth fighters. This also limits their ability to attack externally.

3) Iran's economy is not in a healthy state due to endless sanctions by the US. Which is the reason why they have to abandon all heavy vehicles. Too many parts and key technology are blocked by the US. And Iran is not China which has enough money and ways to bypass or overcome these sanctions. Instead, they focus on drones and missiles. Iranians know they need A2-AD ability, so they produce huge amounts of missiles (more than 3k ballistic missiles) ranging from 200 to 1000km and countless loitering munition. No sane leader would even think about attacking Iran with a land invasion nowadays.
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4) if you read the history of Iran, you will know that it is reasonable for Iranians to hate or at least be sensitive toward possible foreign intervention. The US and Israel do this for years as I said in 1). Their voice is just being ignored by west MSM. Most Iranians, from farmers to senators, just want all foreign interventionist motherfvcker to die asap. Only naive college students and traitors like them.

5) But in middle-east, Iran is popular in many countries, for hate toward Israel is common sense in nearly every middle east country, for Israel is nazi and just does the nazi thing to every country near it. Iran, by supporting anti-Israel(and US) forces not only with money but also real soldiers and military officers(at least 2000 military officers die helping their allies in the past decade), really save Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and itself from genocide for if these countries fall, US military bases and possible endless harass attack will consume Iran to death. But the result is, just like what happened in China, Iran and its allies have become the most powerful military faction in middle-east, with relatively small prices. Many other countries (like Qatar) in the middle east are changing their side from pro-west to pro-Iran.

6) So for Saudi Arabs, it is necessary to find a new ally other than the Americans. A powerful but less interventive one, who can make sure that Iran and Saudi have a place to sit and talk. Even better if both sides can benefit economically.

7) And it just happened that China need a ticket into the middle east. Saudi becomes the one who put us into this circle.

I will say it is good for Saudi Arabs and Iran to find a place for a talk. Saudi Arabs make a really good move.
 
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Arnies

Junior Member
Registered Member
Who knows for how long the Saudi oil reserves will last? Iran's oil reserves are likely in a lot better shape since they did not explore them nearly as much. And Qatar and Iran basically have a shared gas field. Plus Qatar and the rest of the GCC basically do not get along. I think China would be making a big mistake if they get cozy with the Saudis and their allies to the detriment of Iran. China should just get along with all of them and not pick sides. As for pipelines from Iran, those would have to go either through Afghanistan or Pakistan to reach China. And the Saudis, which sponsor Pakistan, together with the US will not allow it to happen.

Pakistan won't go against Saudi sanction pipelines.

Besides Saudi Arabia doesn't negotiate with others in it's oil security meaning the US or any other elements have anything say.. If the Pipeline to China provides good profit they will make the pipeline a reality..
 

tonyget

Senior Member
Registered Member
Who knows for how long the Saudi oil reserves will last? Iran's oil reserves are likely in a lot better shape since they did not explore them nearly as much. And Qatar and Iran basically have a shared gas field. Plus Qatar and the rest of the GCC basically do not get along. I think China would be making a big mistake if they get cozy with the Saudis and their allies to the detriment of Iran. China should just get along with all of them and not pick sides. As for pipelines from Iran, those would have to go either through Afghanistan or Pakistan to reach China. And the Saudis, which sponsor Pakistan, together with the US will not allow it to happen.

1)In light of the green energy trend across the global,oil demand unlikely to increase much in the future

2)Arab still have enough oil for hundreds of years at current rate of production

3)There is no lack of oil source for China. The amount of cheap oil from Russia will only increase,there is also Venezuela with huge oil reserve,and plenty of untapped oil resources in Africa. Not to mention China has vast shale oil reserve inside the country. In fact,the only reason China wants to expand oil trade with Arabs,is to diversify the oil source. Because Russia oil is the cheapest now,but China does not want to overly rely on any single source.

As I said before. For China, Iran doesn't have much leverage aside from it's anti-US position
 

Arnies

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I have a problem with this statement. Most of my view on Iran vs Arab countries have nothing to do with financial gains and mostly to do with political/geopolitical concerns. I've already discussed the importance of having its own oil & gas platform to its future independence from Western system. Here are some other reasons.

First of all, there is the matter of quantities. How many Sunni Arab countries are there in Asia and Africa vs shiities? While someone in Indonesia might not have the same friendly view of Palestine as Saudi Arabia, it generally is still a net positive when you are seen as standing with sunni Muslims. Just pragmatism when it comes to geopolitical support, market size and such.

Secondly, just what has supporting Iran gotten china? The liberal wing still has no respect for Chinese culture or tech prowess. They would jump toward the west the moment jcpoa concludes. The conservative wing might have turned to china in recent years, but have they done anything to stand with china? They are far more pro Russia than china. Has Iran been selling hydrocarbon to china in rmb? Have they initiated on large pipeline projects to supply china? They still prefer su35 over j10. Generally, they just don't respect china. China is a reluctant partner for them. I don't see why china needs to support such an ungrateful "partner". There have been many years of western alienation toward issue and we have not seen any progress from Iran toward china.

Thirdly, what could China ever gain from supporting Iran? Right now, a current view in Western world is that the only friends China has is with countries like Russia, Iran and North Korea that are cut off from the current world order. That's not where China wants to be. Russia is a strong partner with large area that is the only realistic major power that would be on their side in a major fight. NK is a friend that's been China's loyal partner for 70 years. Iran is neither a strong not a loyal partner. China does not need to be saddled with Iran. By being friend with all of Sunnis world, China will be on better terms with a good chunk of Asia and Africa. Its products will be all over the place in these countries. Sunni Muslim countries actually like Chinese tech and products and are closing to use them to build their infrastructure and future. Having the support of ASEAN countries + Sunni Muslim world means China + old allies in Africa and Latin America means China can become the leader of the Global South. If Western countries don't agree with that, then they are just being racist.

None of this is to say that China needs to be overtly hostile to Iran, but that China should pick Sunnis over them if they had to make the choice. And frankly, it should be a really easy choice. As I said before, China is investing pick into CPEC and infrastructure projects like Gwadar and Karachi in Pakistan. Iran's own Chabahar port is a threat to Gwadar due to their proximity. Iran has not done anything of value for the BRI project. If China can destroy Chabahar's commercial value, it should. It does not need another competition to Gwadar around the Persian Gulf

This. The Sunni countries are too numberous too wealthy and too developed for Iran to compete with them directly. The best thing politically for Iran is thaw towards the Saudis and the GCC in this way they could have a good shield even from the Americans. Just one Sunni country can out-compete Iran.

I do believe that Iran will eventually improve ties with the GCC countries leading to prosperity and friendship with the greater Asia, north Africa and Muslim parts of Europe.

A friendship with the Sunni world means that China can never be isolated even if all of WEST cut trade ties with it because the Sunni muslim world is an equally large market or larger then the West's market.

As a matter fact China doesn't need EU or US market.. With ICU and ASEAN these are the largest markets in the world if you have these you don't need others
 

Andy1974

Senior Member
Registered Member
No, it's this part from joint statement with Saudi Arabia that's important

Who do you think has been fight a proxy war against Saudis and damaging Saudi oil infrastructure? Who do you think China was advertising all those weapon systems to during Zhuhai air show. Who do you think are buying all the Chinese anti-drone equipment? Who do you think is the target of China supplied DF-21s in Saudi Arabia? Aside from possible Western efforts to destabilize Saudi Arabia, Iran is the major target here. China is staking a position as Saudi's protector. Who do they need protection from?

What about this statement from GCC declaration?

This seems specifically aimed as Iran with the nuclear part and waring about proliferation of ballistic missiles and UAVs in damaging international waterways and oil facilities. Is anyone in the Middle East outside of IRGC and Houthis engaged in these activities?

What about the comments targeting Iranian nuclear program?

If I'm Iran, I'd be wondering why China and GCC is dedicating a statement targeting all 3 countries where shiites are fighting for control with Sunnis


If I'm Iran, I'd be wondering why China is discussing Afghanistan with GCC nations without any input from me? Why is China butting its head in every conflict/wartorn nation in the region that I'm trying to extend influence over.
Well, to be fair, Iran isn’t Saudi’s only ‘enemy’ in the region, or within range of it’s DF-21’s, there is also Israel, and the US Navy.
 

Arnies

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well, to be fair, Iran isn’t Saudi’s only ‘enemy’ in the region, or within range of it’s DF-21’s, there is also Israel, and the US Navy.

They aren't saudi enemies in the region. Israel is to small to chellenge Saudi Arabia besides Israel is an US outpost. The Americans aren't really hostile and friendly otherwise they wouldn't have been there.
 
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