You are over-interpreting a simple statement. No?
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation
- Thread starter Strangelove
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You are over-interpreting a simple statement. No?
Agreed. In this regard, no one can debate over that.
Interestingly enough, the Chinese got a lot. Aside from oil, which is something both the Arab world and Iran both produce, China gained influence on Iran, and that put it in a favorable position in Sino-Arab negotiations. Think about it: Iran has been expanding its geopolitical footprint in the Middle East. It is quite literally a loose cannon for the Saudis, who are basically the leaders of the Arab world. This is a huge headache for Saudi Arabia since they have to compete hard with Iran. Simultaneously, the US's recent antics, such as seizing Russian assets with absolute impunity, pushed them into an uncomfortable and dangerous position since they can be robbed at any moment. With both variables at play, the economic and political environments are extremely unpredictable for the Saudis and one single misstep can mess things up for them. However, China essentially can solve both problems by getting Iran to the negotiation table and by providing the economic alternative to the Saudis without any strings attached that would turn them into a slave.
I'm not saying China should reject the Sunni world. I said that China should and most likely will help balance the relationship between the two factions. The last thing you need is the US exploiting any type of conflict between the Sunnis and Shiites. That is why supporting both parties is crucial. It puts China in a favorable position among the mass majority of the Muslim world. There is no need to prioritize one side over the other. At the same time, that would require the Chinese to convince Iran to dial down their anti-Arab attacks and pursue a reasonable compromise. Will this force Iran to de-escalate? Yes. However is it an anti-Iran manuever? No.
Like what you and others said, Iran has little economic value in comparison that of the Arab world, so comparing Iran to China, whose large market makes the CPEC project valuable and is necessary for the Arab world to depend upon, is like comparing aluminum and gold. So, I wouldn't be too concerned about its port. As for hostilities, overt hostility is not necessary to cause friction and division. All you need are seeds of discontent to do so. During the 70's, Vietnam's implicit one sided support for the USSR and inability to amend disagreements with China caused Sino-Vietnamese relations to decay. This would ultimately lead to the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese conflict and the 1980's border clashes; both of which screwed Vietnam up. There are no such thing as binary choices in politics. In my Sino-Vietnam example, Le Duan, the leader of the CPV, made exclusive choices and screwed his country over. Whenever possible, one should support both sides to help them find a temporary middle ground, especially if one is in a position in which they need the numerical support for a much larger competition and conflict with a dangerous foe like the US.
PS: Ill try to get to the other user's post whenever possible.
I fail to see how you could get this conclusion that China is acting as a protector of GCC. To me, it is very stretchy to draw this conclusion from the declarations we have seen.
I am also curious as why you are so eager to see (or portrait) China picking the Sunni side in its rivalry with Shia which has been there for more than a thousand years.
It is a good first step, but nothing concrete. Only when GCC list their oil in the exchange will things become materialized.
I already explained my points. Iranians are not all that helpful to China. China gets a lot more from getting cozy with Sunnis.
Basically, they interpreted as I did. Which is calling out Iran as a supporter of regional terrorist groups and proliferator of bm and drones is very offensive to Iranians. Still missed out here on the entire part about China supporting Saudis against any state actors that attack them. That was clearly aimed at Iran and America.
And more importantly, Iran has no choice but to continue pretending that China is a friend. If Iran treats China the same regardless of whether China picks side, then why doesn't China pick Sunnis sides. I don't frankly care if Iranians will be bitter about it 50 years from now, since most of the world treats them as a pariah state.
China isn't going to drop one country for another. In this occasion, China simply shows more favour toward the Gulf States because they offer more to it than Iran does.
That's it. If Iran wants to change that, then it has to make itself more "attractive" to China
That's it. If Iran wants to change that, then it has to make itself more "attractive" to China
Again, I stress this very clearly. This isn't just about pricing oil from Saudis in RMB. I'm sure some oil trading have already been in RMB. It's about building China's own trading platform where buyers and sellers can trade oil and gas. Just as it built futures exchanges and commodity exchange for different natural resources and then opened up to international investors and such.
This one does a good job explaining the progress of various Chinese future contracts here.
If you look at this, Qataris have already used it
I'm still confused about the relationship between SFE and Shanghai Petroleum and natural gas exchange. Looks like SFE has it's own Shanghai international energy exchange which also trades quite a bit
This one does a good job explaining the progress of various Chinese future contracts here.
now, they want to trade things on Shanghai Petroleum and natural gas platform. All of this is under China's control. That's what China wants to do. It wants to have platforms where it controls things. It cannot be sanctioned or pushed off.
If you look at this, Qataris have already used it
I'm still confused about the relationship between SFE and Shanghai Petroleum and natural gas exchange. Looks like SFE has it's own Shanghai international energy exchange which also trades quite a bit
There's no reason why China should have to pick between Iran and the Gulf. It's a dumb conflict that only benefits Israel and the west.
My understanding of Iranians is they are unhappy with the Gulf countries because of their dependence on the western their westernisation and their (indirect) support of Israel. Replace western support for the Gulf states with Chinese support and that goes away. The theological dimension is overblown and exploited by the west. No Arab country had a problem with Iran before the anti western Islamic revolution. Furthermore Iran had Sunni countries like Libya as allies.
Saudis need to acknowledge that whether they like it or not, Iran will eventually become a nuclear power. They need nuclear weapons of their own, which will be impossible given how dependent they've made themselves on America.
Overall, I'm a little disappointed by the recent summit. Economic cooperation is fine, but I was expecting a much bigger military deal. Drones are small fish. Either Saudis aren't quite ready to ditch western platforms or China isn't ready to export the latest and most advanced weaponry.
You won't get closer relationship with Sunni countries unless you show you are willing to pick them over Iran. Remember, your top ally Pakistan also has a problem with Iran.
It doesn't matter what the underlying issue is. What matters is that Iran is engaging in proxy wars to further shiite influence in the middle east. These proxy wars have been very damaging for GCC countries. They have shown themselves desperate for attention from the west while not appreciating what China had done for them.
how many military deals between China and Saudi Arabia have been made public? Did the DF-21 deal get reported? We will find out in a few years what they've actually concluded.