Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

My speculation is that China wants the issue of the islands peacefully resolved so that both UAE and Iran can join the SCO.

This would allow the islands to be used for logistics, and connect both countries with the CPEC.

Perhaps China will even use Hong Kong’s new international peace mediation role to help solve the conflict of the islands.

If true, this makes the UAE the one to make the most concessions as Iran is already joining the SCO. Perhaps UAE will end up paying for more of the infrastructure, and give up some claims in return for all those transit fees.

The Chinese visit to UAE and Iran can be just as historic as the China-GCC/Arab meetings.

Iran's reaction has nothing to do with China's stance on those islands. The overreaction is solely aimed at the the expansion of relationship between China and GCC. Although GCC and China relationship has strengthened over the years. This summit has upgraded and expanded such relationship to a whole new level. Iran felt threaten by such realignment.

I doubt 25 years agreement or look east policies have anything to do with this. As Iran and China cooperation and agreements over the years have never materialized. Iran isn't an easy place to do business and Iran is very protective of its industries. In addition, Iran has tried for years to diversify its reliance on China through all means possible such as their agreement with South Korea immediately after nuclear agreement with the US or giving out all the gas and oil fields to Western entities. And Iran's reluctance to accept Yuan is also a strong hint. Such actions alone wouldn't mean much but if you put them together it clearly shows a pattern that Iran would prefer to reengage with the West and doesn't want to strengthen relationship with China into the next level.

I don't foresee China to engage or interfere with the relationship between Iran and GCC. It is up to them to resolve such issues. Putting that statement in the outline is just out of respect of GCC and showing of good will.

Before Xi’s trip I read that Chinas 25 year deal with Iran was an extra motivation for GCC countries to enhance ties with China.

After Xi’s trip, perhaps Iran will feel motivated to enhance ties, further.

This might be a diplomacy pattern, or a trend to watch out for.

Overbom said:

Too many nice theoretical words. What do they actually mean in practise though?

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Overbom said:

There is an opportunity to wrestle the Arabs away from America. You meet them, they say "A good first step would be adding these anti-Iran points in your statement". Does China agree or not? Well, China agreed

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China did not agree to "anti" anyone. China meant "peaceful" negotiation, that is NO forceful act. Iran is occupying these islands. Who do you think the "peaceful means" is for? The one who is going to use force to change the status quo is not going to be Iran.

China have been doing this ever since the first day of PRC. In the China North Korea friendship treaty, there is the "peaceful unification" in the treaty. Does that not apply to North Korean as well? If it does, do you think China is anti North or anti South?

If China wanted to be one-sided, China would not have put "peaceful" in the text. China's position in article 12 is 1. China understand UAE's position on the islands dispute and support peaceful negotiation, 2. China's support is only peaceful, in other words Arabs are not to shoot at Iran for this dispute. This is exactly China's position to the North Koreans.

Overbom said:

That's where your theory breaks down. In front of sufficient benefits theories go straight to the dustbin

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Apparently you missed China's condition in the key word "peaceful" in article 12.

The bottom line of Chinese diplomacy as I said in the post that you quoted is "China will never allow anyone to swing China's position into one-sided". In plain words in this case, China's Iranian relationship is not anti-Arab, nor is China's Arab relationship anti-Iran. Non of them should think or expect China being leaning on their sides. China is not letting anyone to use China in their regional ambition for dominance.

I know little about iran. Is it possible that Iran protests every time after the joint statement of China and Arab countries? Only this year the protests in Iran have received our attention. Perhaps these protests will not change China-Iran relations at all? Perhaps the severity of these protests has been artificially exaggerated?

d3dx9 said:

I know little about iran. Is it possible that Iran protests every time after the joint statement of China and Arab countries?

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No.

d3dx9 said:

Only this year the protests in Iran have received our attention.

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Iran's protest this year is understandable. From their perspective the islands are their undisputable territory, not protesting would be strange.

d3dx9 said:

Perhaps these protests will not change China-Iran relations at all?

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Not at all. The protest is limited to the mentioning of the islands dispute. The protest is officially from the defence minister ??? Regarding the whole GCC China declaration, another Iranian minister said "no impact on China-Iran relationship".

d3dx9 said:

Perhaps the severity of these protests has been artificially exaggerated?

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Yes, way blown out of proportion by binary thinking.

luosifen said:

The Israelis were always going to sabotage JCPOA, no matter what Iran gave up on its side.

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Forget about the Israelis, Obama and the EU already were never intended to follow the deal.
The EU did a complete puppet show with their INSTEX mechanism to do trade outside of the dollar and SWIFT system.
Yet here we are with minimal trade between the EU and Iran while the mechanisms are in place.

Hope China will not fall into this same puppet show when dealing with EU, when you have Russians getting burned by the Minsk agreement and Iran with JCPOA. Will China be naive enough to watch and enjoy the puppet show time will tell.

The make more example in how one should examine China's diplomatic positions, here is another example of similar issues.

The GCC China declaration.


compared to China Argentina joint declaration


The difference is that China support Argentina's sovereignty claim on Malvinas islands. China made clear of the sovereignty is undisputable, support to seek peaceful means, but if peaceful means is not found, the support of sovereignty is still in place, it does not exclude force. In this case, China took Argentina's side.

In GCC case, there is no support of sovereignty claim, but only peaceful means.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

Given the fact that your view focuses on financial gains rather than the political aspect,

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I have a problem with this statement. Most of my view on Iran vs Arab countries have nothing to do with financial gains and mostly to do with political/geopolitical concerns. I've already discussed the importance of having its own oil & gas platform to its future independence from Western system. Here are some other reasons.

First of all, there is the matter of quantities. How many Sunni Arab countries are there in Asia and Africa vs shiities? While someone in Indonesia might not have the same friendly view of Palestine as Saudi Arabia, it generally is still a net positive when you are seen as standing with sunni Muslims. Just pragmatism when it comes to geopolitical support, market size and such.

Secondly, just what has supporting Iran gotten china? The liberal wing still has no respect for Chinese culture or tech prowess. They would jump toward the west the moment jcpoa concludes. The conservative wing might have turned to china in recent years, but have they done anything to stand with china? They are far more pro Russia than china. Has Iran been selling hydrocarbon to china in rmb? Have they initiated on large pipeline projects to supply china? They still prefer su35 over j10. Generally, they just don't respect china. China is a reluctant partner for them. I don't see why china needs to support such an ungrateful "partner". There have been many years of western alienation toward issue and we have not seen any progress from Iran toward china.

Thirdly, what could China ever gain from supporting Iran? Right now, a current view in Western world is that the only friends China has is with countries like Russia, Iran and North Korea that are cut off from the current world order. That's not where China wants to be. Russia is a strong partner with large area that is the only realistic major power that would be on their side in a major fight. NK is a friend that's been China's loyal partner for 70 years. Iran is neither a strong not a loyal partner. China does not need to be saddled with Iran. By being friend with all of Sunnis world, China will be on better terms with a good chunk of Asia and Africa. Its products will be all over the place in these countries. Sunni Muslim countries actually like Chinese tech and products and are closing to use them to build their infrastructure and future. Having the support of ASEAN countries + Sunni Muslim world means China + old allies in Africa and Latin America means China can become the leader of the Global South. If Western countries don't agree with that, then they are just being racist.

None of this is to say that China needs to be overtly hostile to Iran, but that China should pick Sunnis over them if they had to make the choice. And frankly, it should be a really easy choice. As I said before, China is investing pick into CPEC and infrastructure projects like Gwadar and Karachi in Pakistan. Iran's own Chabahar port is a threat to Gwadar due to their proximity. Iran has not done anything of value for the BRI project. If China can destroy Chabahar's commercial value, it should. It does not need another competition to Gwadar around the Persian Gulf

taxiya said:

The make more example in how one should examine China's diplomatic positions, here is another example of similar issues.

The GCC China declaration.
View attachment 103273

compared to China Argentina joint declaration
View attachment 103274

The difference is that China support Argentina's sovereignty claim on Malvinas islands. China made clear of the sovereignty is undisputable, support to seek peaceful means, but if peaceful means is not found, the support of sovereignty is still in place, it does not exclude force. In this case, China took Argentina's side.

In GCC case, there is no support of sovereignty claim, but only peaceful means.

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No, it's this part from joint statement with Saudi Arabia that's important

中方支持沙方维护国家安全稳定，强调坚决反对任何干涉沙特内政的行径，反对任何针对沙特平民、民用设施、领土和利益的袭击。

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Who do you think has been fight a proxy war against Saudis and damaging Saudi oil infrastructure? Who do you think China was advertising all those weapon systems to during Zhuhai air show. Who do you think are buying all the Chinese anti-drone equipment? Who do you think is the target of China supplied DF-21s in Saudi Arabia? Aside from possible Western efforts to destabilize Saudi Arabia, Iran is the major target here. China is staking a position as Saudi's protector. Who do they need protection from?

What about this statement from GCC declaration?

11.双方领导人强调地区国家参与的全面对话的重要性，以处理伊核问题、破坏稳定的区域性活动，阻止对恐怖组织、教派组织和非法武装组织的支持，防止弹道导弹和无人机扩散，保障国际航道和石油设施安全，遵守联合国决议和国际法理

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This seems specifically aimed as Iran with the nuclear part and waring about proliferation of ballistic missiles and UAVs in damaging international waterways and oil facilities. Is anyone in the Middle East outside of IRGC and Houthis engaged in these activities?

What about the comments targeting Iranian nuclear program?

If I'm Iran, I'd be wondering why China and GCC is dedicating a statement targeting all 3 countries where shiites are fighting for control with Sunnis

双方领导人强调全力支持伊拉克主权、安全、稳定、发展和繁荣，以及伊方的反恐努力。强调应根据联合国安理会2254号决议，加大努力实现叙利亚危机政治解决，维护叙利亚主权和领土完整。强调同黎巴嫩人民站在一边，继续支持黎巴嫩主权、安全和稳定，支持黎巴嫩武装部队保卫黎巴嫩国境、抵抗极端恐怖组织威胁。支持根据联合国安理会有关决议解决利比亚危机的努力，鼓励利比亚各方在联合国主持下，尽快举行选举，统一国家机构，所有在利外籍作战人员和雇佣兵都应撤离

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If I'm Iran, I'd be wondering why China is discussing Afghanistan with GCC nations without any input from me? Why is China butting its head in every conflict/wartorn nation in the region that I'm trying to extend influence over.