Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

I actually think the Iran Pakistan incident served China in the end. Either China planned it, or China was able to turn a crisis into opportunity.

1. Established boundary with Iran that is must back off from Chinese ally, or they will retaliate. A lesson of humility to a rising Iran.
2. They only hit terrorists shared in the border. It improves long term security of Chinese investment, and iran pakistan.
3. Peace rapidly being mediated by China grows Chinese prestige, compensating initial embarassment. Net neutral.

Pakistan moved on and forgave Iran, and so should we.

TK3600 said:

Hey, not Iran's fault US decided to "play chicken", to put in your own words.

Click to expand...

It's not a good thing for China that America is thinking about leaving syria, I don't know why you think that helps China

TK3600 said:

You must have confused me with others. I have no qualm with Chinese relationship with Turkey. For all I care China can be friendly with US if it serves China. I just don't like it when you use Turkey to put down Iran's contribution.

Click to expand...

If you go a few page back, I was responding to a post linking the two together. I think they are separate cases.

resistance said:

It's every surprised that your logic like:
Iran interest ; attack one ally that doesn't really go anti India that much and comply with US.

Click to expand...

The level of insults you throw at Pakistan is quite amazing. At a base level, you don't seem to understand how much Pakistan has helped China's security position over the past 40 years.

resistance said:

VS
turkish interest ; currently support terrorist and host them, show how it target Chinese EVs without treating EU the same (directly attacking chinese interest)
You choose Turkish interest.
For me : I'll choose Iran

Click to expand...

I'm not choosing Turkish interest. You see China needs to engage Turkey & other NATO countries, because that's what you do with other countries. You engage them. And in Turkey's case, it seems like a country that's winnable from the west, so China should put some effort into working with Turkey. I care about China's interest.

Iran on the hand is supposed to be a Chinese ally since it's a member of BRICS and SCO. So, I must hold it to a higher standard. Since all along, you are putting it on the same level as Pakistan. I'd expect it to respect China's interest and buy Chinese weapons like Pakistan.

It does none of that.

Where is that pipeline from Iran to China? They first brought it up years ago. How come no plans to build it yet?

resistance said:

What did Pakistan help china now if not going against India? Pakistan china ally is mainly about india. If there's no India there wouldn't be that ally at the beginning.

Click to expand...

I'm confused about this not going against India. Can you show some evidence of that.

you fundamentally don't have a clue how much Pakistan helps China right now or for the past 40 years.

resistance said:

The pipeline needs to pass many countries in central Asia, some of them wants to hold monopoly. And also why don't Pakistan rush Karakorum railways and pipeline linking Xinjiang now when it's just about china and Pakistan themselves? This resemble Myanmar right now. Delaying projects?
Btw, Iran already building pipe connect to Pakistan. The only segment left of the pipeline is Pakistan to china border.

Click to expand...

I don't care that Iran is building pipe to Pakistan. Why didn't Iran start building pipeline to China 10 years ago?

What project has Iran completed for China?

Pakistan has incompetent civilian govt, but it's security establishment is 100% behind China. Don't ever ignore that.

Stop pissing on your loyal ally of 40 years

resistance said:

Iran has a strategic value for Chinese security. It's a wall that defense outsider force from entering central Asia and eventually Xinjiang. China even make the statement recently about warning not to violate Iran territorial integrity, this is very similar to warning during before Korean war happened.

Click to expand...

why don't you outline how they are actually protecting China's security? lol. this is very vague. How is it helping China in the far and away #1 conflict that China needs to care about, which is in westpac.

TK3600 said:

I actually think the Iran Pakistan incident served China in the end. Either China planned it, or China was able to turn a crisis into opportunity.

1. Established boundary with Iran that is must back off from Chinese ally, or they will retaliate. A lesson of humility to a rising Iran.
2. They only hit terrorists shared in the border. It improves long term security of Chinese investment, and iran pakistan.
3. Peace rapidly being mediated by China grows Chinese prestige, compensating initial embarassment. Net neutral.

Pakistan moved on and forgave Iran, and so should we.

Click to expand...

Pakistan moved on in the sense that it did not blow this issue up further.

Probably due to China's behind the scene work in getting the two together

But this is what I call an unforced error. All the hard work China put into getting Iran into a good place with Sunnis. And Iran just decided it was going to reduce trusts in Sunni countries

From China's point of view in the middle east:
you want sunnis and shiites to get along and help China against the West

Do you think this exchange helped that process?

If this is how Iran acts when it feels slightly confident about itself, how will it act if it really feels confident itself? These are the things we need to consider.

China/Iran relationship should not be an even one.

We do not see Iran as our equals. China's only equal is America.

That's why Raisi comes to see Xi, not the other way around. If Iran wants China's help, it needs to be more considerate of China's interests. Like Pakistan is respectful of China's interests

tphuang said:

It's not a good thing for China that America is thinking about leaving syria, I don't know why you think that helps China

Click to expand...

Lol what kind of logic is this? China is engaged in a war of international defense against US encroachment, every destroyed US outpost is another position from which further attacks can be launched deeper into US occupied areas and liberate them.

According to your logic, it's bad to take territory in war. So suppose US succeed in making China retreat from x country, is that a win for China then??? What in the backwards cope logic.

tphuang said:

If you go a few page back, I was responding to a post linking the two together. I think they are separate cases.


The level of insults you throw at Pakistan is quite amazing. At a base level, you don't seem to understand how much Pakistan has helped China's security position over the past 40 years.

Click to expand...

There's nothing wrong with Pakistan, which is why they can easily be persuaded to hold the correct position, which in this case is to fall in line with Iran.

tphuang said:

I'm not choosing Turkish interest. You see China needs to engage Turkey & other NATO countries, because that's what you do with other countries. You engage them. And in Turkey's case, it seems like a country that's winnable from the west, so China should put some effort into working with Turkey. I care about China's interest.

Iran on the hand is supposed to be a Chinese ally since it's a member of BRICS and SCO. So, I must hold it to a higher standard. Since all along, you are putting it on the same level as Pakistan. I'd expect it to respect China's interest and buy Chinese weapons like Pakistan.

It does none of that.

Where is that pipeline from Iran to China? They first brought it up years ago. How come no plans to build it yet?

I'm confused about this not going against India. Can you show some evidence of that.

you fundamentally don't have a clue how much Pakistan helps China right now or for the past 40 years.


I don't care that Iran is building pipe to Pakistan. Why didn't Iran start building pipeline to China 10 years ago?

What project has Iran completed for China?

Pakistan has incompetent civilian govt, but it's security establishment is 100% behind China. Don't ever ignore that.

Stop pissing on your loyal ally of 40 years

Click to expand...

I don't disagree in the least that Pakistan has one of the most important roles to play on the subcontinent and middle east. There's a reason why China intends to equip them with the strongest or 2nd strongest air force in the region. That doesn't mean Iran isn't also an important actor.

tphuang said:

why don't you outline how they are actually protecting China's security? lol. this is very vague. How is it helping China in the far and away #1 conflict that China needs to care about, which is in westpac.

Click to expand...

How is Ukraine helping US security? How is HK rioter helping US aggression?

In the westpac, all China needs to do is to keep defending the 1st island chain. It's the fulda gap of this cold war, if it would get extremely hot there, nothing stops from China from bringing out the mass nuclear threat to prevent a NATO breach of the 1st island chain gap. Sure, China can invest heavily in military and then seek punching through America's iron curtain and put Japan, PH, Indonesia etc. under military control.

But another way they could do is to simply to wear out US globally and starve them from resources, which naturally force US to harvest all these client states to avoid unrest at home, making the client states weak and resentful, so China can easily pick them up after winning the cold war.

tphuang said:

if you are China, you'd like US to get bogged down in the middle east, not to withdraw from middle east. That's in China's interest. Why would you want US to withdraw from Syria?


I don't see why you need to compare the two. They are different relationships. China has relationship with Turkey for the same reason it has relationship for many countries. It is good to have good relationship with other countries and you want to keep that market open for your product. It's a mercantile relationship, which is how it should be. I don't really care what Turkey does as long as it's not going around attacking my friends.

Iran on the other hand did attack one of my top friends. That's a huge problem. I'm not going to attribute Houthi efforts to Iran. The entire Houthi as Iranian proxy is over played.

Keep in mind that Iran is doing some things in China's interest because those are also in Iran's interests. It's fundamentally a country that wants to be its own power and its interest will sometimes be against China's interest

So it's not so different from many other countries. But since it has fewer choices and less geopolitical pull, you are not going to treat it as well as you would with Brazil or Saudi Arabia or Indonesia


I have no issue with Turkey defending it's own interest. It wants to be its own power. China's relationship with Turkey is a mercantile one. It doesn't need to improve more than that.

Erdogan is someone willing to do deals. That's someone China can have a useful relation with.
of course, it's also someone you should never turn your back toward, because you will get stabbed.

Click to expand...

Even if Turkey interest is to annex xinjiang long term as a Turkish empire?

pbd456 said:

Even if Turkey interest is to annex xinjiang long term as a Turkish empire?

Click to expand...

In a way, the best ally are the ally whose interest align with you. You know they are good to you because they are rational, not out of goodness of their heart. They have no reason to betray you and that is someone you can trust.

tphuang said:

It's not a good thing for China that America is thinking about leaving syria, I don't know why you think that helps China

Click to expand...

The US operations in Syria cost the Americans very little, but they cost the Syrians a lot. Once the Americans are removed and Syria becomes a strong country again, they can threaten the Israeli occupied Golan heights. Imagine the Gaza war with a Syria equipped with a powerful army and the Russian base. The US and EU will have to use a lot more energy to support Israel. A resurgent Syria will also benefit the whole region, Iraq, Iran and Turkey will all trade with them more, reducing their dependence on the west.

tphuang said:

At a base level, you don't seem to understand how much Pakistan has helped China's security position over the past 40 years.

Click to expand...

Really? What has Pakistan done for China? And hasn't China more than repaid any debts by sinking dozens of billions into doomed projects in Pakistan?

tphuang said:

I'd expect it to respect China's interest and buy Chinese weapons like Pakistan.

It does none of that.

Where is that pipeline from Iran to China? They first brought it up years ago. How come no plans to build it yet?

Click to expand...

Have you looked at a map? There's no way to build that pipeline without the cooperation of either Pakistan, which is delaying projects as usual, or Turkmenistan, which prefers to export its own gas.

I've said it before, but it's pretty clear that China is the one refusing to sell to Iran, not the other way round. If fighter jets made in China were available, Iran would absolutely buy

tphuang said:

Pakistan moved on in the sense that it did not blow this issue up further.

Probably due to China's behind the scene work in getting the two together

Click to expand...

It's much more likely that Pakistan and Iran have a secret agreement to allow hitting terrorists in each other's territory, but this was supposed to be kept secret but Iran was too public about it. Someone made a mistake, but they clearly allowed Pakistan to strike back. This shows that Iran is interested in peace and cooperation with Pakistan

tphuang said:

China/Iran relationship should not be an even one.

We do not see Iran as our equals. China's only equal is America.

That's why Raisi comes to see Xi, not the other way around. If Iran wants China's help, it needs to be more considerate of China's interests. Like Pakistan is respectful of China's interests

Click to expand...

You speak like an American

When China talks about win win cooperation, it's not just words. It's what makes China better than America. Rather than bringing death and destruction and hegemony, China offers peace and prosperity. China's principles are mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win win cooperation. Xi has actually been to Tehran in 2016

tphuang said:

It's not a good thing for China that America is thinking about leaving syria, I don't know why you think that helps China

Click to expand...

It's not a big deal either way. The biggest determinant in the balance of power between China and America is the PLA's expansion and modernization, and the expanding and advancing Chinese industrial base that fuels it. The US repositioning assets from here or there closer to China is a second order effect. Besides, the more assets the US puts closer to China, the better. That means they're now in range of the PLARF's opening barrages.

The US leaving Syria neither helps nor hinders China. It's purely an optics thing where we can point and laugh at the US once again retreating in humiliation and defeat.

tphuang said:

The level of insults you throw at Pakistan is quite amazing. At a base level, you don't seem to understand how much Pakistan has helped China's security position over the past 40 years.

Click to expand...

Pakistan has been a disappointment. I had high hopes (unrealistic in hindsight) that CPEC would launch Pakistan into a new era of growth, a mini '80s China. That hasn't materialized and they just limp from one economic crisis to the next.

I visit PDF occasionally, it's a troll-infested cesspit but there are sometimes interesting pieces of information about the J-10CE. For example, a well-regarded poster there claimed that the J-10CE won 4 of 6 BVR engagements against the Eurofighter Typhoon in the recent exercises in Qatar:
In his telling, the PAF is particularly chuffed about the radar and ECM suite. Something interesting he also said is that China is willing to sell Pakistan the full fat PL-15. However, Pakistan wants the missiles at a significant discount and so things are at an impasse with Pakistan getting a nerfed version because it's cheaper.

This shouldn't be a problem. Pakistan should be able to pull its weight economically if it's to be a close ally of China.

tphuang said:

Iran on the hand is supposed to be a Chinese ally since it's a member of BRICS and SCO. So, I must hold it to a higher standard. Since all along, you are putting it on the same level as Pakistan. I'd expect it to respect China's interest and buy Chinese weapons like Pakistan.

Click to expand...

Is China willing to sell weapons to Iran like Pakistan? China is trying to court the Gulf states, to get them into the Chinese financial system and pull them as far as possible out of the American security umbrella. Arming Iran with high-end capabilities like the J-10CE goes against that goal.

America entirely abandoning the Middle East would make it much easier for China to pull Saudi & Co. into its orbit.

tphuang said:

Pakistan has incompetent civilian govt, but it's security establishment is 100% behind China. Don't ever ignore that.

Click to expand...

The incompetent civilian government - and much of that incompetence is forced by the security establishment - is a severe problem for Pakistan's long-term economic health, which puts a ceiling on how useful an ally it can be. Furthermore, I doubt that the Pakistani security establishment is 100% behind China - I see a lot of kowtowing to America from them.

tphuang said:

I'm not choosing Turkish interest. You see China needs to engage Turkey & other NATO countries, because that's what you do with other countries. You engage them. And in Turkey's case, it seems like a country that's winnable from the west, so China should put some effort into working with Turkey. I care about China's interest.

Click to expand...

China already put some efforts, what did turkey give back. Host terrorist, undermine Chinese integrity, unfair treatment of Chinese EVs. It's clear turkey hates china and will choose the west no matter how china do. China should teach them lesson like what Lithuania get.

gelgoog said:

Ever looked at the flag of the East Turkestan Independence Movement? Why do you think they picked that particular flag?
Where do most people from ETIM who flee from China end up living? In Turkey.
Insurgents from ETIM and Chechnya have entered Syria's Idlib province from the Turkish border, fight against the Syrian Army, and are supplied via Turkey. Turkey regularly uses those insurgents as mercenaries not just in Syria but also Azerbaijan in the conflict against Armenia and in the Libyan civil war.
Try reading about the Gülen movement from Turkey. They have built schools all over Central Asia as an avenue to indoctrinate people and radicalize them. They also used to be close to the government in Turkey. Were close until they tried to take Erdogan's place in a US sponsored coup.

View attachment 124463

Erdogan as a Pan Turkic supports Turkish autonomy or independence all over areas with Turkic peoples living in them.

Erdogan is one of those people claiming there is a Uyghur genocide in Xinjiang. The only reason he has mostly shut up lately is that his country is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy and he needs Chinese money.

Click to expand...

Erdogan and his Pan Turkic ideology never stop to "amaze" me. Modern Turkish is the least genetically related to Turks in general and Gurturk in particular.

The original Turks are north-east Asian closely related to neighbouring proto-Mongol, Xianbei and Northern Han Chinese. Recent DNA evidence further confirmed that. The following diagram is DNA analysis of a member of Ashina clan, the funding family of Turkic Kahganet. The specimen is Empress Wude of Northern Zhou (551-582AD), she was the grand-daughter of the funding Turkic Kahgan. Her DNA composition is in the region of red-orange region, more than 90% in common with Xianbei and Rouran (proto-Mongols) and roughly 60% with northern Han Chinese at that time.


Majority of modern Turkish population is essentially local people (Syrian, Greek, Arab, Kurds) whose ancestors adopted Trukic language and customs from the Ottoman ruling class hundreds years ago. It is similar to African, Central/South American and Indian were under European colonial rule for some time and adopted European languages, customs and religions. However none of these people made such absurd claim that they are Europeans.