Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

Ties between Saudi Arabia and China keep getting closer.
As I mentioned in the economics thread, Aramco will be working with Baosteel for new plant

On top of that, news broke now of Sinopec investing in Aramco's largest LNG project in its Jafurah field

Aramco really does have a lot of business ties with China now

tphuang said:

The oil needs to go far beyond Persian gulf. It needs to get to Malacca straits. For this to actually work, they will need to be able to station long range ISR in multiple places along the way

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I really don't see the problem. A Chinese warship can dock in Iran, refuel and then join a convoy of tankers. They change the flag state to China. Then the warship escorts the tankers back to the south China sea. If the US navy attacks of course they can destroy the convoy, but there are severe consequences to being the aggressor.

This is the same principle of what the US did at the end of the tanker war between Iran and Iraq, operation earnest will

Minm said:

I really don't see the problem. A Chinese warship can dock in Iran, refuel and then join a convoy of tankers. They change the flag state to China. Then the warship escorts the tankers back to the south China sea. If the US navy attacks of course they can destroy the convoy, but there are severe consequences to being the aggressor.

This is the same principle of what the US did at the end of the tanker war between Iran and Iraq, operation earnest will

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think about how far China would have to protect vs how much America had to protect.

Tokayev is one of the few world leaders (e.g., Singapore PM) who could probably converse with Xi in Chinese.

I think right now China doesn't need or trust Iran to be very up-armed. Iran fulfils it's function.

China has already extracted normalcy between Saudi and Iran, going forward, China is going to want Iran to keep creating conditions for a healthy civilian economy before providing more powerful tools.

The next domino is Israel. China can lean on them the same way they lean on Saudi. Beijing would want political reform from Tel Aviv, alignment with China's sphere and in exchange would grant normalcy between Iran, Syria, Saudi and Israel. Should they refuse and go to US, China can unify the whole Muslim world against them.

If the latter happens, then arming Iran with advanced weapons could become actualized. Otherwise, China would have won most of the middle east mainly using diplomacy.

Biscuits said:

I think right now China doesn't need or trust Iran to be very up-armed. Iran fulfils it's function.

China has already extracted normalcy between Saudi and Iran, going forward, China is going to want Iran to keep creating conditions for a healthy civilian economy before providing more powerful tools.

The next domino is Israel. China can lean on them the same way they lean on Saudi. Beijing would want political reform from Tel Aviv, alignment with China's sphere and in exchange would grant normalcy between Iran, Syria, Saudi and Israel. Should they refuse and go to US, China can unify the whole Muslim world against them.

If the latter happens, then arming Iran with advanced weapons could become actualized. Otherwise, China would have won most of the middle east mainly using diplomacy.

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The question is, Tel Aviv is falling apart.

infinity_wor;d said:

The question is, Tel Aviv is falling apart.

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Netanyahu seems like the right Israeli PM to balance between China and US.

China should push for FTA with SCO and middle east countries. So far Pakistan is the only SCO member which has FTA with China

tphuang said:

where did I say that China should have a base in Iran? Can you find where I said that?

I'm pretty annoyed that you are insinuating this

I'm actually quite uncomfortable about the idea of China providing maritime security blanket for other countries far away from its home base. It's not even possible to do so before it has nuclear submarines.

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When you said "I'm not sure how any of this is possible unless Iran provides joint SCO naval bases in its territory.", aren't you suggesting?

tphuang said:

Now tell me, how do you think Iranian navy can get strong enough to actually defend itself? And if you cannot think of a reasonable path, then what can China actually provide for them to change that situation?

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If a foreign base isn't an option right now, that leaves Iranian navy getting stronger (with help of course) the only option. What path to take and how isn't a meaningful question.

You seems to present a dilemma that nothing works, I was suggesting one thing that can help, although not necessarily sufficient for the moment.

tonyget said:

China should push for FTA with SCO and middle east countries. So far Pakistan is the only SCO member which has FTA with China

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A free trade zone like RCEP would be ideal. Connecting China with the EaEU, GCC and the remaining central and western Asian countries. It's important to not only open markets for Chinese exports but also promote regional trade and less violent relations between countries there through trade. There are currently high inefficiencies because neighbours don't trade enough with each other, keeping everyone poorer

When RCEP was signed, countries agreed to lower trade barriers to all members as the price to get access to the Chinese market. The same might work in other regions