Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation
- Thread starter Strangelove
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Have you seen any evidence that Iran is willing to buy whole naval ships from China or that China is willing to sell them who ships (due to sanction concerns)?
Now the second part is probably more important. what makes you think that level of sale is enough?
In order for China to protect "SCO trade lanes", it would need at least one base around UAE, 1 in Pakistan, 1 in Myanmar.
I'm not against exploring or starting to build bases, but China doesn't yet have the fleet needed for a sustainable oversea network of basses yet
More importantly if i'm in PLA leadership, I'd concern myself more with Sea of Japan first so that ESPO crude can come through safely from Vladivostok area
keep in mind there is Diego Garcia. There are real logistical issues trying to sustain maritime shipping lane when India is likely not going to cooperate. And you would need other infrastructure in the region to support better ISR. Again, how do you accomplish any of this without military bases where your ISR drones can take off to monitor the region and you have some naval ships and submarines and long range aircraft stationed to assist things?
Instead of a permanenet PLA-owned-&-operated naval base in Saudi Arabia and/or Iran, why not take a page from Changi Naval Base (CNB) in Singapore?
Legally speaking, CNB cannot be considered an American military base because the base itself isn't owned by the US military. However, CNB does offer supporting facility access to the US Navy, mainly for logistical-related refueling and resupply.
I think China can do the same WRT Saudi Arabia and Iran on the matter. Sign memorandums and/or cooperative agreements with Saudi Arabia and Iran by designating one or two naval bases from each of the two to allow resupply and refuel of visiting PLAN warships in the region.
Preferably, this should be done with BOTH Saudi Arabia and Iran in order to reduce the susceptibility of support bias for either of the two countries by China.
This means that the PLAN can expand its presence in the region, while not actually stationing more soild assets in the region other than the ones in Djibouti that would render China being judged as "expansionists" and "imperialists" by the Murican warhawks and Jai Hinds.
Speaking of which, China already has a fully PLA-owned PLAN resupply base in Djibouti, which isn't really far from Saudi Arabia and Iran. So I don't think there is really a need for another PLA-owned naval base in both countries.
Instead, I'm more inclined towards opening a PLA-owned/co-owned military airbase that would allow PLAAF planes to operate from, taking lessons from the recent citizen evacuation from Sudan.
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alright, this has happened now
there are also videos of this online, but clearly warming relationship between the two countries
things are getting dangerous for Iran
there are also videos of this online, but clearly warming relationship between the two countries
things are getting dangerous for Iran
You don't need a force that can defeat the local American forces. You don't even need to do much ISR. A single boat escorting a tanker would be enough. The US won't dare to fire the first shot and if they do, then China can retaliate in the Pacific without being seen as the aggressor.
And if the US focus can be brought back to West Asia, then shouldn't China support that and give Iran the means to sink as many American ships as possible? If China opposes the US on the safety of Iranian oil imports, then the US will have to invest in bases there rather than close to China. Isn't that a good thing? If you allow the US to impose its will with no consequences, China loses. Even if it's not worth it to block American desires, China should extract a price
how many oil tankers do you think are out there? Do you know how many ships you would need to year round escort every tanker coming from the middle east to China? Now, if we are to run such an operation, Djibouti would certainly not be enough of a base and they will need other ports where they can access that can supply. So, they will need to look into agreements for that. I'm not against that part at all.
If you are saying that China should arm Iran as retaliation for America arming Taiwan, then that would be a reasonable argument. But Iran has not purchased any major system from China in the past and you can try speculating on why that is. Is it an Iranian decision or a Chinese one or both? Would that upset your relationship with Saudi Arabia? All things to keep in mind.
If China is getting into the businesses of offering protection for money & influence, then it needs to make sure it still has enough force back at home. It needs to think about how to keep its ships safe in the event things go in the wrong direction. These are all things that China have not got into before. And if it were to get into something like this, Persian gulf is kind of far away and a troublesome region. It's not exactly a place you want to get into for your beginner lesson.
there's a few things:
1. ISR data sharing
2. sell midget SSKs, frigates, corvettes, shore based ASM batteries, vehicle based long range ATGMs, MRLS, etc.
3. investment to get them hooked on Chinese components and tools in exchange for RMB denominated oil.
Sea of Japan is dead. There's no way to control it due to South Korea existing and being a core US ally.
IOR is much more contestable and is the bigger prize anyhow.
None of the first 2) really have range. Iran has a very coastal defense network. I'm not opposed to selling Iran more advanced weapon system provided that you are willing to deal with the blow backs and don't scare off the Saudis or UAE
China's ability to conduct long range ISR is a mile ahead of everyone aside from America. Iran doesn't bring anything to the table if you want to extend protection further out
Nah, SK isn't going to do anything or else NK will attack them. I hear that Chinese fleet should be able to find SSNs in sea of Japan, so they basically can move around safely from sea of Japan all the way down to Malacca straits. That allows them to pretty much blockade everyone in east Asia
the whole point is that you give Iran the weapons systems it needs to control the Persian Gulf yet would be of limited use for threatening the UAE or Saudi Arabian homelands.
The Persian Gulf has geography that heavily favors short/medium ranged systems.
Immediately you notice the Straits of Hormuz are a major chokepoint for anyone that has a forward base only inside the Gulf, there's mountain ranges in Iran right up to the coast. It is an environment with easy ISR of targets: shallow water, no cover or concealment on the southern bank, constricted movement in all 3 dimensions.
Neither UAE nor Saudi are severely threatened if Iran has an advantage in the Persian Gulf, since and .
ISR: There can be potentially supply of data (to identify forces in the gulf), early warning radars or even radar bases, and in exchange local partners gives datasharing for those radars. These radars conduct early warning of fleet movements and missile launches in the entire western IOR. Again, Saudi and UAE shouldn't be threatened by this, as they're not going to be launching missiles or moving large fleets against Iran.
the whole point is that you give Iran the weapons systems it needs to control the Persian Gulf yet would be of limited use for threatening the UAE or Saudi Arabian homelands.
The Persian Gulf has geography that heavily favors short/medium ranged systems.
Immediately you notice the Straits of Hormuz are a major chokepoint for anyone that has a forward base only inside the Gulf, there's mountain ranges in Iran right up to the coast. It is an environment with easy ISR of targets: shallow water, no cover or concealment on the southern bank, constricted movement in all 3 dimensions.
Neither UAE nor Saudi are severely threatened if Iran has an advantage in the Persian Gulf, since and .
ISR: There can be potentially supply of data (to identify forces in the gulf), early warning radars or even radar bases, and in exchange local partners gives datasharing for those radars. These radars conduct early warning of fleet movements and missile launches in the entire western IOR. Again, Saudi and UAE shouldn't be threatened by this, as they're not going to be launching missiles or moving large fleets against Iran.
The oil needs to go far beyond Persian gulf. It needs to get to Malacca straits. For this to actually work, they will need to be able to station long range ISR in multiple places along the way