04/07/2023
In March, budget revenues began to catch up with expenditures
After a dramatic start to the budget year with its huge deficit that scared analysts, the situation with income and expenses stabilized in March. A small surplus was recorded last month, which reduced the budget deficit accumulated in the first quarter to 2.4 trillion rubles.
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in March the budget was closed with a small surplus of 183 billion rubles. This outcome is very different from the situation in the first two months of the year. In January, the monthly deficit amounted to 1.65 trillion rubles, in February - 933 billion rubles.
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In a closer comparison - with the same period in 2022 - budget revenues in January-March 2023 fell by 21%, to 5.677 trillion rubles. With non-oil and gas revenues, the situation is better - minus 3.5% compared to last year, a total of 4.042 trillion rubles was collected.
The main tax in this part is VAT, and it received the same amount as a year earlier - 2.693 trillion. The Ministry of Finance explains the general reduction in non-oil and gas fees by the January one-time refund of overpayment of income tax for previous periods.
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With taxes from the production and sale of oil and gas, the situation has been consistently bad since the beginning of the year - now it is minus 45% compared to the first quarter of last year. Total oil and gas revenues collected at 1.635 trillion rubles.
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The reasons for the collapse are well known - the fall in prices for Russian Urals oil to less than $50 per barrel and the contraction of gas exports after the actual loss of the European market.
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The expenditure side of the budget in the first quarter moved in the opposite direction to revenues - spending compared to the same period in 2022 increased immediately by 34%, or 2 trillion rubles, to 8.077 trillion rubles.
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Changes in the execution of the budget are also possible in terms of the revenue side. The authorities expect that against the background of the rise in world oil prices caused by the OPEC + decision, a new formula for calculating oil taxes will work - already in April, taxes to the budget will be calculated from the price of Brent minus $34, then the discount will decrease down to $25.