Russia Economy Thread
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I think value of Russia agro production have greater potential than mining.
here example of a city that expanded without any mention of tech industry or special government support like Sochi but have one of largest Agriculture university. This good video to understand demographics and economics of Russia. The video start with calling Krasnodar 16th ranked city with about 1 million population in 2018 but based on video creator research the actual population is around 1.5m. so statistics are 50% off. video was made in 2021 so highly unlikely so much movement during covid and than he mentioned real estate prices that got double in past 3 years and the way he mentioned it is like way expensive by his standards. This under estimation of population is causing traffic jams, lack of facilities and he mentioned vehicle density is even more than Moscow but large private ownership of houses that have gardens its difficult to do infrastructure in the center of city or design the city for public transport that is causing city to develop on outskirts. It is not real city but Agro farm that developed into large living place. there is a German village also not sure why point out separate.
Fuel train was sent to Iran through Turkmenistan. now there is option of several routes for trade with Iran. Turkmenistan also signed railway agreement with Bahrain in 2023. Greater population growth in Middle East along with re-export opportunities will ultimately able to absorb Russian resources.
This is much more important than IMF GDP figures especially if there is the technology and political drive to extract such resources.
Russia international student now 400,000. Majority will be from CIS countries. 30,000 are Africans. not sure it include North Africa.
Expect 5% to have scholarship. I think the number can go way higher if Crimea and some other places in South developed further.
According to Russia ambassador to Iran. approximately 6,000 Iranian students study in Russia. and 300 have scholarships. This is the hardest number to attract and most potential in hard sciences to go all the way become researchers and Professors.
Expect 5% to have scholarship. I think the number can go way higher if Crimea and some other places in South developed further.
According to Russia ambassador to Iran. approximately 6,000 Iranian students study in Russia. and 300 have scholarships. This is the hardest number to attract and most potential in hard sciences to go all the way become researchers and Professors.
GDP is not really a relevant figure to compare when you have as resource wealthy country with close government and scientific community. They can release any figure based on what is in there interest. like timing of Gold selling and buying.
Take look at Singapore and UAE GDP figures in IMF report. very identical. but UAE has vast spending power that can support coups and endless wars. and UAE has that Car culture and that diversified vehicle fleet need mechanics and body shops. so much more human population that need food and health care in non productive sectors of maintaining vehicles. look how many world leaders visit UAE. tremendous lobbying effort behind it. so from where that spending power comes from if Singapore and UAE GDP size are identical?.
This article written by UAE executive of helicopter flight training academy pointing out likely shortage of helicopter pilots due to other opportunities in aviation. This a country that attract best global talent to its aviation second to none and it has increased flights through out CIS countries on scale that no one can do in such short time span. so they have much in depth understanding.
now apply the same logic to Russia. They have started centralized Air Ambulance Programme since 2018 that will add maintaining hundreds if not thousand of heli points to provide prompt medical service. these are in addition to Ministry of emergency and civil transport. This meeting was done in late 2021 just before special operation of 2022. so that extra 50% increase after 2022 will be on top of that number. Russia hardly export now.
The question is not helicopter production increase but how you find two pilots and maintained crew if those helicopter are stationed in many more places for medical emergencies or civil transport. why will some one become a helicopter pilot with its noisy uncomfortable ride, more risky flights compared to fixed wing. when salaries and life style of commercial airlines are so much better. This Civilian side
now look at Ukraine for military side. practically all choppers are flying at low altitude but same pilots will be dealing with high altitude mountains in Caucuses. The skill and fitness for such thing need very large and healthy demographics to choose from who really want to fly choppers. this is not something you can import. it need perfection with years of experience.
double fuel tanks on side. pilots are expected to spend hours in flights.
Kirill Strelnikov: Western ‘experts’ thought they would destroy Russia’s economy. They failed.
The hive mind, with access to political ears and mainstream media pages, claimed that Russia’s economy was smaller than that of Italy, based on GDP. Reality paints a very different picture.
By Kirill Strelnikov RIA Novosti
As is often the case in the Western media, the most embarrassing facts are only covered when they can no longer be hidden, but even then unpleasant admissions are made with numerous caveats and excuses.
This week, the International Monetary Fund published a report, which drew the long overdue conclusion that the economic hegemony of the leading Western countries, represented by the G7, is shrinking as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) surge.
Its conclusions were, of course, ‘polished’ by all the leading Western media outlets, but one thing became clear: Any triumphant Western predictions about the BRICS in general, and Russia in particular, can be safely tossed into the rubbish bin.
In 2007, Western experts published a reassuring report stating that the total contribution of the BRICS to the world economy would not be comparable to that of the G7 until 2032.
But once again Western economic projections have failed, and the fact is that the BRICS countries caught up with the G7 in terms of their contribution to world economic growth as early as 2020, and at the moment the figures, even creatively manipulated by pundits, stubbornly show that by 2028 the BRICS will account for at least 35% (some sources say as much as 40%) of world GDP (compared with 27.8% for the G7).
Western analysts, who are in fact echoing the wishes of the global deep state, have fallen into a similar trap in their assessment of Russia’s prospects and impact on the global economy. As we recall, since the beginning of last year, more sanctions have been imposed on Russia than on any other country in history, and the main talking heads in the West have reported with anticipation that the Russian economy will soon be reduced to dust.
Such was their confidence (after all, a petrol station with matryoshka dolls couldn’t possibly stand up to the combined economic might of the enlightened West) that analysts didn't even bother with figures. The prediction was simple: Russia would be quickly and irrevocably destroyed – first its economy and then its social cohesion.
A common trope for a number of years has been a comparison between the economies of Russia and Italy, with spurious claims that the economy of the world’s largest country is no bigger than that of the home of pizza and pasta, all based on simplistic measurements which fail to take into account currency differences, and overvalue the debt-fueled services sector.
But something went wrong, and to the astonishment of the prognosticators, not only did Russia not kneel, it did not even bend to their will. The country's position as a global energy superpower has been reaffirmed, and the title of global food superpower has been added. Other such titles will come in time.
The forecasters began to compare their calculations and came to the conclusion that they had been counting wrongly.
As a result, a respected US publication, The National Interest, has published an ashen article whose main conclusion is that the comparison of the economies of Russia and Italy betrays the blatant incompetence of Western experts. In short, the roots of the comparison lie in the methodology of comparing economies by nominal GDP – the total value of all goods and services produced or sold in a country over a given period. Indeed, according to the World Bank, Russia's nominal GDP in 2013 was about $2.29 trillion and Italy's was about $2.14 trillion.
But according to the authors of the article, the approach itself was fundamentally flawed: neither the exchange rate nor purchasing power parity (PPP) adjusted for living standards and labour productivity, per capita wealth and, most importantly, the availability of crucial material resources and goods, as opposed to nice “paper” assets like the value of global brands, copyrights and so on, were taken into account in the calculations.
With this correction alone, Russia's real GDP is quite comparable to that of Germany (one of the ten most economically developed countries in the world): $4.81 trillion for Russia versus $4.85 trillion for Germany in 2021.
But even such sophisticated calculations do not reflect the real situation. In times of crisis, the production of physical goods comes first, and here the Russian economy is not only stronger than the German economy, but more than twice as strong as France. Add to this Russia's key role in supplying the world with energy, vital natural resources and food (not to mention its impact on global security) and we don’t need the conclusions of the world’s smartest analysts to understand our country’s real place in the world.
Not so long ago, the International Monetary Fund forecast 0.3% economic growth for Russia in 2023. Perhaps we should thank the “experts” and send this forecast to the same place as the others.
Meanwhile, it’s better that we win in the real world, not on paper.
