Russia Economy Thread

[pmc]

more than 1.3GW per year factory is about to start for solar panels in April.
previously another Russian firms created solar panels with 30 years power out guarantee and 15 years product guarantee. Russia is basically self sufficient in solar and advance wind turbines. if it choose this form of energy.

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PRODUCTION COMPLEX
ENKOR is the largest manufacturer of heterostructure technology products for solar energy in Europe with a production capacity of more than 1.3 GW per year. Commissioning is scheduled for the first quarter of 2023. The high-tech HJT cell production line will produce n-type monocrystalline silicon wafers and photovoltaic cells.

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[pmc]

upto 1200 flights per week to Turkey this summer. this in addition to ferry. and there is still flight restriction on up to a dozen airports in Russia. It is turning into US-Mexico relationship. Ukraine conflict may force Ukrainians or other parts of the world to less afford Turkish vacations due to high ticket prices.

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Russia and Turkiye agreed on to increase the number of flights between the two countries by 50 percent for the 2023 Summer tourism season. Last summer, the number of flights between the two countries had increased to a total of 750-850 per week. It is reported that this summer, Russian airline companies will organize 750 flights, while Turkish companies will organize 400 flights.
The cities where Aeroflot will operate direct flights are listed as Istanbul, Antalya, Bodrum, Dalaman and Izmir. The company will also fly to Izmir for the first time as of 27 May.
According to the data announced by OneTwoTrip, the price of round-trip airfare between Russia and Turkey in the spring and summer seasons will be 47.4 percent lower than last year

 

[ansy1968]

upto 1200 flights per week to Turkey this summer. this in addition to ferry. and there is still flight restriction on up to a dozen airports in Russia. It is turning into US-Mexico relationship. Ukraine conflict may force Ukrainians or other parts of the world to less afford Turkish vacations due to high ticket prices.

To share with my experience, just return from Berlin from my Eastern Europe tour group ( arrived with the same date with Elenskyy in Warsaw ruining our travel plan) I can attest that Istanbul had become a super busy HUB competing with the Gulf state like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and even Muscat (Oman Air). while the likes of Cathay Pacific, Eva Air, Korean Air and the Japanese airline stagnated because of the Russian sanction. Now that China had open I expect an intense competition from the Chinese airline as the demand is huge as the price of seats from Turkish Airline are expensive with little competition from the established players.

 

[pmc]

Almaz EV will be manufactured at former Toyota Plant. not sure they doing in mean time. its a consolidation of auto industry under one government center like in aviation.

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The E-Neva prototype developed at the Obukhov plant was shown to the minister back in July 2022, when he visited the Nizhny Novgorod plant, which is also part of the Almaz-Antey East Kazakhstan region. "E" is for "electric", and the Neva is the major river in St. Petersburg.
FSUE NAMI has become the government's center for consolidating assets in the Russian automotive industry amid the exit of foreign automakers from the local market. Specifically, FSUE NAMI has received from Renault a controlling stake in Avtovaz (67.7%); as well as the assets of the St. Petersburg Nissan plant (Nissan Manufacturing Rus LLC), whose 99% stake is now directly owned by Avtovaz (MOEX : AVAZ). NAMI also owns a 63.5% stake in the Aurus luxury car project (Aurus LLC).

Kamaz the truck maker also will create its own EV light vehicle by 2025. currently its making them in former Renault plant from a Chinese brand.


I am actually surprised that didnot mentioned India as part of software development for Kamaz vehicle project.

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According to RTVI,

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plans to spend $20 million to acquire the idle

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Motor Company plant in Naberezhnye Chelny. It was noted that the cars were called "Atom" after agreements with

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, which is working on a plant for the production of batteries for electric cars on the territory of the Baltic nuclear power plant

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region.
Also, according to the presentation, Atom plans to produce four models of electric vehicles: the two-door city "Duo," the family "Family," separate cars for taxis and delivery. It is expected that all models have a maximum range of 500 km on a single charge.
To solve the problem, a team of product specialists, IT developers, UX designers from various areas was assembled: from mobility to

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, from fintech to

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. As of November 2022, the ATOM international engineering and technical team has more than 250 automotive designers and IT developers with experience in implementing the largest projects in the fields of electric transport, mobility and ecosystems in Russia,

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,

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and

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. The geography of the team covers many cities and

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. But her

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, an ideological center of inspiration, is located in one of the automobile capitals of Russia - in the city of

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.

For many years, Russia has been building one of the world's strongest IT and mobility industries - the largest aggregators of taxis, car sharing, delivery, parks of modern urban electric transport and international IT companies were created in Europe. The ATOM project seeks to combine the potential of partners around the idea of a product that can become not only Russian, but also international symbol of digital mobility. So, the largest aggregators are already actively participating in the project: they share ideas, functional needs, participate in the development of solutions, become the customer of innovative solutions.

In the 3rd quarter of 2023, the team intends to present functional prototypes of the ATOM electric car.

 

[pmc]

They say it is first picture of new IL-96M. The aircraft is longer so it will need more powerful and update engines.

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In November regular non-stop flights began on the Moscow - Los Angeles route by Il-96-300.

In Aeroflot history page the original IL-96-300 aircraft did Moscow- Los Angeles direct route in 1995. potentially minimum of 10K range. with reserve it can be more. now new design plane will have to take into account flying around Europe to reach Latin American destinations.
The original IL-96-300 is very short length plane. it does not have door behind the wings. by making the plane larger they made it subject much more development time and tests but those were decision made much earlier. if they keep the original size and just update engine and avionics and later composite wing the plane is competitive for the price. The plane is FBW from start and the most advanced aerodynamics solutions.
on UAC telegram.

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The IL-96-300 embodies the latest domestic achievements in the field of aerodynamics, strength, structural materials, and avionics. Scientific and technical solutions protected by 145 Russian patents and 167 copyright certificates were introduced into its design. As a result, the IL-96-300 achieved a record-breaking aerodynamic quality value for domestic aircraft, equal to 21 units, confirmed by flight tests.

 

[pmc]

Kurchatov institute head regarding cooperation with Chinese and his experiance with CERN.

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"There will be international cooperation - we will build, do something. No - we will build new installations with China," the head of the Kurchatov Institute said, recalling that Russian scientists, for example, developed unique crystals of lead tungstate for the detectors of CERN experiments.
"No one could do them. This is our country, only we did. There is no CERN without us," he added.

PR from CERN representatives​

The head of the Kurchatov Institute also noted that research centers should "learn PR" from CERN representatives.
“We [Kurchatov Institute] launched a tokamak, launched a reactor, which is more complicated and dangerous than this accelerator in every sense. <…> And they promoted [the launch of the accelerator at CERN] like this: tomorrow there will be a black hole, it will draw the whole world in! And journalists are greedy to sensations <...>. How many times did they throw in that the speed of light was violated, actually multiplying it by the wrong thing? This is a PR campaign, "concluded Kovalchuk.
The National Research Center "Kurchatov Institute" represents Russia in such mega-science projects as the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor ITER (ITER), the European X-ray Free Electron Laser (XFEL), the Large Hadron Collider at CERN (CERN), the European Center for Synchrotron Radiation ESRF, FAIR European Center for Ion and Antiproton Research (FAIR) and others. The Institute is also developing a system of domestic mega-installations as part of the program for the development of synchrotron and neutron research and research infrastructure for 2019-2027.

I Minister is taking about developing semi equipment and material part of electronic products.

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Manturov stressed that the authorities would focus strategically on overcoming dependence on foreign technologies along the entire chain of producing electronic products.

"In order to do this, we are assimilating the manufacturing of technological equipment for lithography, etching and growing crystals; increasing the production of special materials and high-purity gases; and developing computer-aided design systems and software for the domestic electronic component base," Manturov said.

The Industry and Trade Ministry has not specified what the share of domestic manufacturers of radio electronics currently is in the Russian Federation.

 

[tonyget]

Seems like Russian bank is running out of Yuan for importing goods？

Since Russia has a trade surplus vs China，so in theory Russia should have enough Yuan to cover imports from China. The only reason for this to happen，I think is because Russia is using Yuan for imports not only from China，but also from other countries.

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Banks purchased a record 3.5 billion yuan from the Central Bank through a currency swap last week​

​

The set purchase limit is 10 billion yuan. Why did the deficit of the Chinese currency arise and how will the market players behave further?

In April, Russian banks again ran out of yuan. Therefore, last week they purchased about 3.5 billion yuan from the Central Bank through a currency swap, which was a record figure. At the same time, the established limit for the purchase is 10 billion yuan, Kommersant writes .

The previous record was set on April 4, when credit institutions bought about 3 billion yuan from the regulator. Why is there a deficit of the Chinese currency? Evgeny Nadorshin, Chief Economist of PF Capital, argues:

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Chief Economist：

PF "Capital"“Perhaps everything is quite simple, and exports, which are calculated in yuan, are now not enough to cover all the import needs in these yuan. And, it is possible that this does not apply in general, even to all exports and imports, but to those operations that are served, for example, by a specific player or a couple of players. A hint of this is clearly visible in the preliminary data on the balance of payments. The fact is that when the Central Bank published data for the first quarter, it became clear that everything was not going well with exports. A speech about the fact that January was bad, and then it got better, with a certain stretch it can be said, but in principle, let's say, March did not improve much compared to January. We have a little more than 100 billion exports in the first quarter. According to customs statistics, we know that we have 28 kopecks for January, 71 billion of imports, taking into account outflows from the balance of services, wages, for example, non-investment income, in fact, the current account is quite modest. It may happen that on certain days of the week we generally have export revenues, the proceeds that can be sold on the Moscow Exchange, which is received for export, it may not completely cover the needs of imports, this is the first important point. The second point, if we start splitting by currencies, then it is possible that imbalances also arise in certain currencies and, for example, what is received for exports in yuan, for example, is not enough to pay for yuan imports. Due to the limited involvement of the Russian financial market, difficulties are now arising, for the resolution of which one has to turn to the Central Bank.” for example, non-investment income, in fact, the current account is quite modest. It may happen that on certain days of the week we generally have export revenues, the proceeds that can be sold on the Moscow Exchange, which is received for export, it may not completely cover the needs of imports, this is the first important point. The second point, if we start splitting by currencies, then it is possible that imbalances also arise in certain currencies and, for example, what is received for exports in yuan, for example, is not enough to pay for yuan imports. Due to the limited involvement of the Russian financial market, difficulties are now arising, for the resolution of which one has to turn to the Central Bank.” for example, non-investment income, in fact, the current account is quite modest. It may happen that on certain days of the week we generally have export revenues, the proceeds that can be sold on the Moscow Exchange, which is received for export, it may not completely cover the needs of imports, this is the first important point. The second point, if we start splitting by currencies, then it is possible that imbalances also arise in certain currencies and, for example, what is received for exports in yuan, for example, is not enough to pay for yuan imports. Due to the limited involvement of the Russian financial market, difficulties are now arising, for the resolution of which one has to turn to the Central Bank.” that on certain days of the week we generally have income from exports, the proceeds that can be sold on the Moscow Exchange, which is received for export, it may not completely cover the needs of imports, this is the first important point. The second point, if we start splitting by currencies, then it is possible that imbalances also arise in certain currencies and, for example, what is received for exports in yuan, for example, is not enough to pay for yuan imports. Due to the limited involvement of the Russian financial market, difficulties are now arising, for the resolution of which one has to turn to the Central Bank.” that on certain days of the week we generally have income from exports, the proceeds that can be sold on the Moscow Exchange, which is received for export, it may not completely cover the needs of imports, this is the first important point. The second point, if we start splitting by currencies, then it is possible that imbalances also arise in certain currencies and, for example, what is received for exports in yuan, for example, is not enough to pay for yuan imports. Due to the limited involvement of the Russian financial market, difficulties are now arising, for the resolution of which one has to turn to the Central Bank.” if we start splitting by currencies, then it is possible that imbalances also arise in individual currencies and, for example, what is received for exports in yuan, for example, is not enough to pay for yuan imports. Due to the limited involvement of the Russian financial market, difficulties are now arising, for the resolution of which one has to turn to the Central Bank.” if we start splitting by currencies, then it is possible that imbalances also arise in individual currencies and, for example, what is received for exports in yuan, for example, is not enough to pay for yuan imports. Due to the limited involvement of the Russian financial market, difficulties are now arising, for the resolution of which one has to apply to the Central Bank.”

Yuan swaps are the only mechanism for supporting banks with foreign exchange liquidity that the Central Bank has at its disposal in the face of the inability to conduct transactions with dollars and euros due to sanctions.

Says the director for the analysis of financial markets and macroeconomics of the Eastern Gate Investment Company Alexander Timofeev :

- The yuan has not just taken the place of the dollar inside the currency market of the Moscow Exchange, it is now practically uncontested. I am afraid that even after all restrictions are lifted, the yuan will be very difficult to move. When it comes to swaps, there are two stories here. The first story is that a currency swap is the easiest and fastest way to get currency here and now, and return it, pay for it a little later. Since the demand for yuan exceeds all reasonable sizes and all calculated options, banks at the last moment, of course, use this mechanism. Moreover, both the Central Bank and the Moscow Exchange have taken a very correct position, in which all conditions are created to make it more profitable, convenient and comfortable for a conditional bank to take a swap in yuan, and not in some other currencies, just to

- Where did they go, they took 3 billion out of 10, 10 limit, why are they asking again?

- Firstly, there is a complete feeling, whether I am right or not, we will find out when the Central Bank publishes its data that we are having foreign exchange interventions that used to go through trading, through the dollar or the euro. The same foreign exchange interventions go simply through the yuan. Therefore, large volumes of yuan are simply washed out of the market. Secondly, suddenly the population realized that the yuan is such a quasi-dollar, and therefore there was a great demand for a deposit in yuan. And thirdly, the actual volume of payments in yuan turned out to be even higher than the optimistic forecasts were. Here are three, in general, sources where these yuan are washed out.

The Bank of Russia began this year to carry out interventions in the foreign exchange market in Chinese yuan, and also launched swaps in yuan to support banks during a liquidity shortage. That is, when one currency is exchanged for another, taking into account certain rates and commissions, and then the transaction reverses. That is, it is an opportunity to borrow currency for a while to resolve problems with its shortage.

 

[pmc]

Seems like Russian bank is running out of Yuan for importing goods？

Since Russia has a trade surplus vs China，so in theory Russia should have enough Yuan to cover imports from China. The only reason for this to happen，I think is because Russia is using Yuan for imports not only from China，but also from other countries.

I wont rely on information or statistics coming out from Russia unless it is physically confirmed by third source. otherwise we have to rely on Putin driving Audi one week and BMW next week. Yuan shortage can happen if Russia ordered large number of construction machinery and services as they are doing quite alot of infrastructure work.
Russia large trade surpluses are now with Turkey and India and to certain extent Middle East. and they are unlikely using Yuan for payment to Russia. If Russia is still pursuing deals with such countries than there can be other system of payment or exchange of goods that we cannot observe.

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Jaishankar had on Monday stated that the volume of India-Russia bilateral trade between April 2022 and February 2023 had in fact reached $45 billion and would continue to grow.

 

[pmc]

Russia created largest number of business enterprises in Uzbekistan for 2023.

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[gelgoog]

I would not be surprised if they eventually rose the ceiling for the Yuan swaps with Russia. Several other countries have a higher ceiling as is.

Another thing which has not been widely talked about is the massive success that Russia and Iran had interlinking their banking institutions, where several dozen Iranian banks are now connected with Russian banks. They basically interlinked Iranian SEPAM with Russian SPFS. It is likely a lot easier for both countries to conduct transactions. Iran also entered into a free trade deal with the EAEU in 2021. Over water trade with Iran via the Caspian Sea has basically doubled over the last year.