Possible Turkish incursion into Iraq

I think Vlad may be right when he said a couple of days ago on this thread that the Turks appear to be going for a knock-out blow. In addition to Leopard 1s and M-60s, I've seen recent pictures of motorized and foot infantry moving, and even an M-115 8-inch towed howitzer - an Army Corps-level artillery piece - on the way to the border. With two armoured divisions in the area, the Turks appear to be assembling a force capable of overrunning much of Iraqi Kurdistan within a matter of days, if that is the Turks' plan.

I don't believe the Turkish Government actually wants to do this, but both the Army and public opinion are placing so much pressure on the Government in response to PKK attacks that it seems only a matter of weeks, even days, before someone pulls the trigger in earnest. The US 173rd Airborne Brigade based in Italy is the US Army Southern European rapid-reaction force, and recently got its order for routine rotation to Iraq to replace a Brigade there rotating out. I wonder if its warning order has been changed a little, especially since not only has it already served a few tours in Iraq already, but it was the force the US sent into northern Iraq during the 2003 invasion after Turkey refused to allow the 4th Infantry Division into Iraq through Turkey.

Not to stop the Turks of course, but perhaps to go into the PKK base areas and start rooting them out so the Turks won't come in to do it themselves? So much speculation, so many possibilities. We'll see what happens.

Turkey and Iraq have agreed to work together to deal with the problem of Kurdish PKK rebels in northern Iraq.
Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan said Ankara would put the emphasis on diplomatic means to solve the crisis.

Mr Babacan rejected any ceasefire with the PKK, saying this was not possible with a "terrorist organisation".

Turkey is coming under intense pressure from the public and military to use force against the PKK, after its parliament approved cross-border raids.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey had no territorial designs on Iraq but could use military force against the PKK "at any time" if Baghdad failed to act.

"We cannot wait for ever," he said, at a news conference with UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown in London.

Turkey, along with the US and EU, considers the PKK to be a terrorist organisation.

In the last week, Turkey has been building up its military presence on the border with Iraq and, on the other side, PKK rebels have stepped up their attacks against Turkish troops in the region.

The rebels claim to have captured several Turkish troops following an attack on Sunday that left 12 soldiers dead. The Turkish military has only confirmed that eight soldiers are still missing.

The funerals of the dead are expected to take place on Tuesday.

'Other tools'

Mr Babacan said Turkey respected the territorial integrity of Iraq as a matter of principle, but the fight against terrorism was also a matter of principle.

However, every effort would be made to avoid cross-border military action.

"There are political dialogue, diplomacy, economic and cultural tools as well as military measures," he said after talks with Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari.

"We do not want to sacrifice our cultural and economic relations with Iraq..."

But Mr Babacan said Turkey would not consider a ceasefire with the rebels, following reports that the PKK might agree to stop fighting.

"Ceasefires are possible between states and regular forces - the problem here is that we're dealing with a terrorist organisation," he said.

Mr Zebari said his country would actively help Turkey deal with the PKK "menace".

"We agreed that the position we should take is a common position to fight terrorism wherever it is and we will not allow any party or any group, including the PKK to poison our bilateral relations," he said.

A delegation of senior Iraqi government officials is expected to travel to Ankara in the coming days to agree on measures that are being described as practical and concrete.

The talks came after the US urged Iraq to take swift action against the insurgents to forestall the threatened Turkish raids.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki agreed to work with the Turkish government to prevent the PKK from using Iraqi territory to plan or carry out terrorist attacks, a White House statement said.

Ankara wants to see PKK camps closed down and the group's commanders arrested and handed over.





Iraq says it will close the offices of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) rebel group and will "not allow them to operate on Iraqi soil".
Prime Minister Nouri Maliki said he would also "work on limiting its terrorist activities which are threatening Iraq and Turkey".

The PKK has been blamed for a number of recent deadly raids inside Turkey.

Turkey has come under intense public pressure to use force after its parliament approved cross-border raids.

'No ceasefire'

Mr Maliki said after meeting visiting Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan: "The PKK is a bad terrorist organisation and we have taken a decision to close its offices and not allow them to work on Iraqi soil."

Mr Babacan earlier said Turkey would put the emphasis on a diplomatic means to solve the crisis.

He rejected any ceasefire with the PKK, saying this was not possible with a "terrorist organisation".

In the last week, Turkey has been building up its military presence on the border with Iraq and, on the other side, PKK rebels have stepped up their attacks against Turkish troops.

The rebels claim to have captured several troops following an attack on Sunday that left 12 soldiers dead.

The Turkish military says eight soldiers are still missing.

I doubt Maliki is being fully honest. He's said many times they can't do anything and the Kurds have said they won't do it. Maliki may be honest, but he'll need the Kurds to help and they don't seem too interested. Here's some interesting information:

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rica has requested three days from Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to allow the withdrawal of US troops from northern Iraq to prevent a possible confrontation of Turkish and US troops in the event Turkey starts an incursion into northern Iraq to strike against bases of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) terrorist organization, a Turkish official said.

The official, who wished to remain anonymous, also said the US will urge the central Iraqi government and the regional authority in northern Iraq not to oppose a likely cross-border operation by Turkey. The same source added that there is no plan to deliver PKK leaders to Turkey. However, the US could turn a blind eye to Turkey's operations, the source said.

Erdoğan told a news conference on Sunday after a crisis meeting with top civilian and military leaders that Turkey expected concrete steps to be taken by US authorities against the PKK after his talks with Rice. He spoke with Rice over the phone during the meeting. At a press conference following the meeting, Erdoğan said he told Rice that Turkey expected "speedy steps from the US" in cracking down on the PKK and that Rice had asked "for a few days" from him.

Click to expand...

Source:

So the U.S. may end up standing by and letting Turkey invade. Here's some idea of how Turkey might do it:

The Turkish army, NATO's second- largest, is poised for a possible attack on northern Iraq that may begin with air strikes and strafing runs by helicopter gunships aimed at smashing the mountain hideouts used by Kurdish guerrillas.

Turkey might follow the strikes with tanks and armored personnel carriers that would punch across the border as helicopters ferry commandos to a string of guerrilla bases some 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the frontier, military analysts say. The Turks would face rebels who have had years to reinforce their bases and are well-trained in mountain warfare.

``It would be a major incursion,'' said Michael Radu, co- chairman of the Center on Terrorism at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia. The Turks ``cannot pull back now and say, `We have made all these noises and we increased oil prices and OK, we'll send 200 people in.' That is not going to happen.''

Click to expand...

Source:

If Maliki can't push the Kurds to get rid of the PKK, he may let Turkey go in, which he intended to do in August but was stopped by the Kurds. If he does, Maliki may end up losing his alliance with the Kurds and being pushed out of power. An invasion could see various Iraqi factions, Sunni, Shia, and Kurd, pulling together against Maliki, the U.S., Turkey, and Iran if they get involved.

crazyinsane105 said:

I'm having some trouble believing that Turkey withdrew their troops from the border just because of US pressure. The entire country along with the military is pretty set on military action, especially with what happened over the weekend. I think Turkey simply wants to show the world they are giving diplomacy a last chance and that they aren't the aggressors but the victims (which is actually kinda true in this case).

Click to expand...

The reason I say that is because the only thing that changed was that Robert Gates and the Turkish Defence Minister met in Kiev. But yes, I think that the Turks want to see if these latest promises from the Maliki government pan out.

Finn McCool said:

The reason I say that is because the only thing that changed was that Robert Gates and the Turkish Defence Minister met in Kiev. But yes, I think that the Turks want to see if these latest promises from the Maliki government pan out.

Click to expand...

strike when the iron is hot !!

that is turkey's motto

don't be surprised if u found out later that the killin of the turkish troops were staged, so as to give turkey the excuse to invade northern iraq.

it's all about occupying territory!!!
--------
Keep your mouth washed please. I can available for help if you need. Speak respectfully and/or w/ evidence.

Finn McCool said:

The reason I say that is because the only thing that changed was that Robert Gates and the Turkish Defence Minister met in Kiev. But yes, I think that the Turks want to see if these latest promises from the Maliki government pan out.

Click to expand...

Right now Maliki's government can't even extend its power beyond Baghdad, and whatever power it does have is because of American support. Now the US is in a Catch-22 situation: if it decides to support Maliki and start conducting airstrikes against suspected PKK positions, the PKK would almost immediately make an alliance with Ansar al-Sunnah (an insurgent group based heavily in northern Iraq which is opposed to both the Maliki government and American occupation) without a doubt. That alliance can have the potential of really causing the Americans some serious military trouble, as the PKK is probably one of the much better fighting forces in Iraq (and they have access to some better military equipment as well). Conducting air strikes against the PKK would also cause the US to lose most of its trust with the Kurds and can also cause Maliki to lose support from Kurds as well (the only thing that is keeping the Maliki government from collapsing is Kurdish support).

Now if the US just sits back and doesn't do anything, the Turks will invade sooner or later. The only thing needed is one or two more incidents were Turkish troops are killed and I think we may seen an invasion in the works...

Actually I made a post on my blog about the ramifications with regards to Iraq should Turkey invade:



I predict that if Turkey invades and Maliki lets them, we'll see Maliki taken out of power and a united government in Iraq that then demands withdrawal of U.S. forces, ultimately creating a buffer zone between the Saudis and Iranians where they compete for influence over Iraq's government.

Turkish warplanes and troops attacked Kurdish rebels inside Iraq this week, security sources said on Wednesday, but Ankara wants to hold back from any major incursion for now to give diplomacy a chance.

Turkey moved more troops to the mountainous border, keeping up pressure on Baghdad to honor promises to crack down on an estimated 3,000 rebels of Turkey's outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) who use the region as a base.

Security sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed a series of sorties between Sunday and Tuesday evening in which Turkish warplanes flew 20 km (13 miles) into Iraq and some 300 ground troops advanced about 10 km.

Click to expand...

Baghdad has pledged to act against the rebels. A Turkish official on Wednesday quoted Iraqi President Jalal Talabani as saying Iraq might hand over PKK militants to Turkey. Talabani had previously ruled out any such move despite Turkish appeals.

The lira currency firmed to 1.2100 against the dollar on the back of Talabani's reported comments.

The Turkish official described as a "final chance" for diplomacy a planned visit by an Iraqi delegation to Ankara on Thursday. At Turkey's request, the team will be headed by Iraqi Defense Minister General Abdel Qader Jassim. It will also include Iraqi National Security Minister Shirwan al Waeli.

Click to expand...

Ankara is skeptical about Baghdad's ability to crack down on the PKK in northern Iraq, a mainly Kurdish region where central government has little clout. The publication of photographs said to show eight Turkish soldiers captured by the PKK has added to pressure on Ankara to act.

"We are reinforcing our troops near the border at Silopi and Uludere with men drawn from other parts of the country," a military source told Reuters in southeast Turkey on Wednesday.

The PKK's Jaderji said the eight soldiers were in good health but no decision had been made on whether to release them.

Turkey, which has NATO's second biggest army, has deployed as many as 100,000 troops, backed by tanks, F-16 fighter jets and helicopter gunships, along the mountainous border in preparation for a possible large-scale strike.

Click to expand...

Source:

Despite an international diplomatic offensive, a Turkish military assault against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq is inevitable, according to some of Turkey's leading experts.

Ali Nihat Ozcan a senior researcher at Turkey's economic and political research centre, says discussions between Baghdad and Ankara will ultimately fail to avert a cross border operation.

“A cross border operation into northern Iraq is necessary in both military and political terms," Ozcan told Adnkronos International (AKI).

Click to expand...

Ercan Citlioglu, a prominent terrorism expert who heads the strategic research centre at Istanbul's Bahcesehir University, also said an attack was inevitable.

“I think it is now necessary to conduct a cross border operation. In the last offensive to Turkish forces, between 150 and 200 militants have crossed the border from Iraq to Turkey," Citlioglu told AKI. "This is a significant threat to Turkey’s sovereignty."

Click to expand...

Source:

As a heartless aside, perhaps China will get some feedback on Turkish operated, Chinese designed systems.

hmm? What Chinese systems? I don't remember Turkey operating anything Chinese, other than probably the B-611 missile.