Possible Turkish incursion into Iraq

Turkish Troops Prepare For Potential Iraq Incursion. October 17, 2007. Turkey's parliament was poised on Wednesday to grant its army permission to enter northern Iraq to crush Kurdish separatist rebels based there, but Iraqi leaders stepped up a diplomatic offensive to avert any attack. (Photo by Burak Kara/Getty Images)

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Turkey lawmakers OK possible Iraq attack By CHRISTOPHER TORCHIA, Associated Press Writer
48 minutes ago

ISTANBUL, Turkey - Parliament authorized the government Wednesday to send troops into northern Iraq to root out Kurdish rebels who've been conducting raids into Turkey. The vote removed the last legal obstacle to an offensive, but there was no sign of imminent action as the United States urged restraint.

Turkish leaders, under pressure from Washington and Baghdad, have signaled they would not immediately give the order to send in 60,000 soldiers, armor and attack helicopters into a region that has largely escaped the chaos of the Iraq war.

The crisis along the border, where the Turkish troops have massed since summer, has driven up oil prices along with tensions between Turkey and its longtime NATO ally, the United States.

President Bush said the U.S. was making clear to Turkey that it should not stage a major army operation in the Iraqi north, much of which has escaped the sustained violence and political discord common in the rest of Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.

Bush said Turkey has had troops stationed in northern Iraq "for quite a while," a reference to about 1,500 soldiers deployed for years to monitor the rebel Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, with the permission of Iraqi Kurd authorities.

"We don't think it's in their interest to send more troops in," he said.

While they now have the authority to strike at PKK bases used to stage attacks in Turkey, the country's leaders appear to be holding back in hopes the threat of an incursion will prod Iraq and the U.S. to move against the guerrillas.

The Turkish military, which had little success when it last carried out a major incursion into Iraq a decade ago with 50,000 soldiers, estimates 3,800 Turkish Kurd guerrillas operate from Iraq territory and 2,300 are inside Turkey.

As Parliament voted 507-19 to approve military operations against PKK fighters in northern Iraq over the next year, Turkey's government moved to explain its decision to its Arab neighbors, sending Foreign Minister Ali Babacan to both Egypt and Lebanon.

Oil prices surged briefly to a record $89 a barrel after the vote. Traders worry that any escalation in the conflict will cut oil supplies from northern Iraq.

Hours before the vote, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki called his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to say Iraq's government was determined to halt "terrorist activities" of the PKK on Iraqi territory, his office said.

A close aide to al-Maliki said later that the two leaders agreed the Iraqis should deal with PKK fighters based inside Iraq and the Turks would take care of guerrillas operating in Turkish territory.

But Erdogan warned that Iraq must rein in the guerrillas, the aide said. "If you don't solve the problem now, we will have no choice but to pursue the PKK inside Iraq," he quoted the Turkish leader as saying.

The aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to discuss the confidential conversation, added that there would be no joint operations involving Iraqi and Turkish troops. He said Iraq would not agree to more Turkish soldiers entering its territory.

Erdogan had suggested that Turkey, Iraq and the U.S. conduct a joint campaign against the PKK. But U.S. and Iraqi troops are hard pressed elsewhere, and Iraqi Kurds are reluctant to fight their ethnic brethren from Turkey.

A Kurdish lawmaker in Iraq warned an incursion would threaten the relative stability of the autonomous Kurdish region in the north and called on Turkey to deal with the issue "in a peaceful way."

Adnan al-Mufti, speaker of the regional parliament, also said he believed Turkey had ulterior motives aimed at upsetting the success of the Kurdish region in Iraq because it fears separatist sentiment within its own borders.

PKK fighters operating from bases in the mountains of northern Iraq periodically cross the border to stage attacks in their war to win autonomy for Turkey's predominantly Kurdish southeast. More than 30,000 people have died in fighting that began in 1984.

The authorization for an offensive inside Iraq had the backing of all of Turkey's parliamentary parties except a small Kurdish party. A single lawmaker from the opposition Republican People's Party voted against it.

"I am concerned that Turkey could be dragged into an Iraqi quagmire," said the lawmaker, Esref Erdem.

Turkish leaders have said publicly that they would prefer a solution to the guerrilla problem that avoids a cross-border offensive, but Erdogan has warned that Turkey will take whatever steps it must to defeat the PKK.

"What's important is the parliament's decision, not what people say," Erdogan said.

Public anger is high in Turkey over a recent spate of guerrilla attacks in the southeast as well as a perception that the United States has failed to back Turkey in its fight with the PKK, even though Washington lists the movement as a terrorist group.

Sam Brannen, an international security fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the U.S. had "underestimated the value of Turkey as a strategic ally" and created problems for itself by angering Turks with its failure to curb PKK activity in northern Iraq.

He said others in the region, such as Iran, Syria and al-Qaida in Iraq, could take advantage of strained Turkish-American relations and a destabilized northern Iraq.

"It's not happening in a vacuum. There are other state and non-state actors who would see some advantage in drawing Turkey into the conflict," Brannen said. "It's really hard to see what U.S. leverage will be in this situation."

At a White House news conference, Bush urged the Democratic-controlled Congress not to worsen tensions by approving a resolution labeling as genocide the World War I-era killing of up to 1.5 million Armenians by Turks as the Ottoman Empire crumbled.

Noting the number of domestic bills pending before Congress, Bush said, "One thing Congress should not be doing is sorting out the historical record of the Ottoman Empire."

Turkey, which argues the deaths came during civil unrest and not from a planned campaign to eradicate Armenians, is furious over the measure and has threatened repercussions if it is adopted. Turkey is a key route for moving supplies to U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The House vote to label the bloodshed nearly a century ago as genocide was in jeopardy after several Democrats withdrew their support and sounded alarms it could cripple U.S.-Turkish relations.

Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said failure of the measure might lead Turkey's leaders to forgo military action in northern Iraq as a conciliatory gesture to Washington.

Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell indicated U.S. military leaders felt Turkey was not committed to invading Iraq.

"It would have enormous implications, not just for us but for the Turks, and I don't think there is any rush to war on the part of the Turks," Morrell said.

But Cagaptay said another serious PKK attack would probably trump diplomatic gestures.

"If there's another massive PKK attack, killing a dozen civilians, you can expect they will go in within the next 24 hours," he said.

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Kurds in northern Iraq warned on Friday that they will defend themselves against any Turkish incursion, and Iraqi leaders called on Ankara to engage in dialogue instead of threats.

Massoud Barzani, the president of the autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq, urged Turkey to hold direct talks with his regional government but vowed to fight "any aggression."

Turkish officials, who have long battled Kurdish separatist sentiment at home, have balked at such talks with the Kurdish regional government in Iraq.

The strong comments from Iraq's senior Kurdish statesman came two days after the Turkish parliament voted to authorize a cross-border incursion to root out the rebels from their bases in the mountains on the frontier. There has been no sign of imminent military strikes, and the United States and the Iraqi government have urged restraint.

"The experiences of the past years have shown that this issue cannot be solved through the course of war," Barzani said. "But at the same time we declare to all: if the region or the Kurdistan experiment faces any aggression under any pretext whatsoever, than we are fully prepared to defend our democratic experience and the dignity of our people and the sanctity of our homeland."

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Backing into a corner, Kurd guerrillas have threatened strikes against oil pipelines if they come under attack from the Turkish army, which has been given the green light by Parliament to commence military operations in the north of Iraq. Kurdish press agency Firat has reported the statements of a military commander of the PKK, Kurdish Workers' Party, , Murat Karayilan: "We have no specific strategy on oil pipelines, but we are readying to defend ourselves, and it is likely that guerrillas will see them as objectives".

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After years of denying Turkish arguments over links between the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and northern Iraq's Kurdish administration, the United States finally admitted publicly Wednesday that the Iraqi Kurds have influence over the terrorists and should be seriously pressed to force the PKK to end attacks in Turkey. "Let's try to exert influence over the Kurdish regional government, who we believe has influence over the PKK and can, hopefully, get them to stop their murderous acts within Turkey," Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell told reporters. His remarks came hours after Turkey's Parliament authorized the government to carry out cross-border military action into neighboring northern Iraq to fight the PKK there. But such an offensive, if it takes place, will put Turkey at odds with the United States. Turkish diplomats and military officials have been accusing the Iraqi Kurds of sheltering and aiding the PKK. But by endorsing the Kurds as its closest allies in Iraq, Washington, although it considers the PKK a terrorist group, has so far made no decisive effort to push the Iraqi Kurdish administration on this matter.

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Reaction to Bush's warnings Meanwhile, Turkish officials yesterday continued to react to warnings issued by U.S. President George W. Bush late Wednesday. “Those who criticize us should explain what they are doing in Afghanistan,” said Justice Minister Mehmet Ali Şahin. “If the motion will be put into force, it will be done on the basis of international law,” Şahin said. “Turkey applies the same international rules as the ones that blamed certain organizations in Afghanistan for the attacks on the twin towers and entered that country [on that pretext]” he said. NATO activated its crucial Article 5 on collective defense after the Sept. 11 attacks. The operation being conducted in Afghanistan is still under the NATO umbrella and includes the participation of Turkish troops. Earlier Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declined to make a direct comment on Bush's warnings and instead said, “What is important to us is what our Parliament says.”

MGK to convene next week Meanwhile, the National Security Council will convene on Oct. 24, following Parliament's approval of the motion.

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Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on the Iraqi government today to close 'once and for all' Turkish rebel camps situated in northern Iraq.

'What would satisfy us is the closure of all the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) camps, including their training camps and the handover of their terrorist leaders,' Erdogan was quoted as saying by the Anatolia news agency.

The prime minister said the camps should be 'cleaned up once and for all.'

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Turkish Military, PKK Clash Near Iraq Border; 35 Dead (Update2)

By Mark Bentley
More Photos/Details

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Turkey's army and Kurdish militants clashed near the border with Iraq today in fighting that killed 35 people, as Turkey considered an attack on the group's bases in Iraq's Kurdish controlled north.

Twenty-three members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, and 12 Turkish soldiers died in battles near the Turkish village of Daglica, about 5 kilometers (3 miles) north from the Iraqi border. Sixteen soldiers were also injured in the fighting, the Turkish armed forces said on its Web site.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week obtained permission from parliament to order a military incursion into Iraq's north, after the PKK killed 28 Turkish soldiers and civilians in attacks earlier this month. About 3,500 PKK fighters use northern Iraq as a base to attack targets in Turkey, according to the Turkish government.

``As a nation we are extremely angry,'' Erdogan said in televised comments to reporters in Istanbul. ``We will do whatever is necessary within the scope of the power now vested in us by parliament.''

Erdogan said he will meet later today with President Abdullah Gul and army chief General Yasar Buyukanit to decide on Turkey's response to today's military casualties.

The Turkish government is stepping up military operations against PKK units in the mainly-Kurdish southeast of Turkey and is threatening to send troops into northern Iraq, saying U.S-led coalition forces have failed to crack down on PKK fighters holed up in the oil-rich region.

Oil prices in New York rose to a record above $90 a barrel last week partly on concern that a Turkish attack on Iraq would disrupt shipments and hurt regional stability.

The U.S. has warned Turkey to stay out of northern Iraq, a relatively peaceful area of the country. Turkey says the U.S. must treat the PKK like Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda terrorist network and attack the group's bases. Almost 40,000 people have died in clashes between the autonomy-seeking PKK and the Turkish military over the past two decades.

The PKK is recognized as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the European Union.

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Vlad Plasmius said:

I think Turkey may be wanting to go for the death blow. I don't think they'll restrain themselves to just a small-scale incursion. I think they intend to push towards Kandil and take out the fighters there. They've never actually gone that far and that's where the main bases are. It's probably the reason why other incursions didn't succeed, they didn't go far enough.

Unless the U.S. does something we'll probably see Turkey go in.

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After a call from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he would not immediately send his troops into Iraq in response to an ambush by Kurdish separatists that had killed at least 12 Turkish soldiers on Sunday.

Mr. Erdogan said he had told Ms. Rice in a phone conversation Sunday night that Turkey expected “speedy steps from U.S.” in cracking down on Kurdish rebels, and according to The Associated Press, he said that she had expressed sympathy and asked “for a few days” from him. The Iraqi government also began a concerted effort to reach out to Turkey.

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But Sunday’s attack was one of the worst in recent memory, and it effectively forces the government’s hand, even though it has been skeptical of an offensive in the past.

“With this incident, the arrow left the bow, and no room is left for the government to hesitate, postpone or fail to launch a cross border operation,” Armagan Kuloglu, a retired Turkish major general said in a telephone interview. If the government holds back from an offensive, he said, “such a step would endanger its existence and credibility.”

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Though Iraqi Kurdish leaders reiterated calls for a diplomatic solution, Jalal Talabani, Iraq’s president, also appeared to express frustration with Turkey’s expectations.

“The leaders of P.K.K. do exist in Kurdistan rugged mountains, but the Turkish Army with all its power could not stem or arrest them, so how can we do that?” Mr. Talabani said at a news conference on Sunday.

“We are looking for peace, not war, and to solve problems peacefully,” he said, adding, “We will not hand any Kurdish man to Turkey, even a Kurdish cat.”

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“Statements on terror will not satisfy us,” said Cemil Cicek, the government spokesman. “In terms of statements, there has been nothing left unspoken. We expected and will expect firm steps from our counterparts. At this point, there is no importance of anything said by anyone.”

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Are there any alternative names for Kandil? I can't find it on Google Earth.

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