Possible Turkish incursion into Iraq

crazyinsane105 said:

I have read sources which have stated that there are up to 200,000 Turkish troop stationed at the border of Iraq and are awaiting orders from the government.

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Yeah I've heard that too. It's true. But the question is will they use all of them? The way I see it this could go two ways; the Turkish make a relatively limited incusion targeting only the PKK bases, or they make a wider one that might go all the way to Kirkuk which would be the nightmare scenario you indicated.

Finn McCool said:

Yeah I've heard that too. It's true. But the question is will they use all of them? The way I see it this could go two ways; the Turkish make a relatively limited incusion targeting only the PKK bases, or they make a wider one that might go all the way to Kirkuk which would be the nightmare scenario you indicated.

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Well a better question would be as to why the Turks have even bothered to place these many troops right by the border for just a limited incursion. It doesn't make any sense placing hundreds of thousands of troops just go in a few miles and back out. A few thousand troops backed with air support can go in and out like they've done in the past, but 200,000 troops...that's just an overkill for some quick incursion. That's definitely an invasion force in my opinion, and with US-Turkish relations going lower, I can somewhat see it happening. All that is needed is a big attack on Turkish soil by the PKK and all gloves may eventually come off.

crazyinsane105 said:

Well a better question would be as to why the Turks have even bothered to place these many troops right by the border for just a limited incursion. It doesn't make any sense placing hundreds of thousands of troops just go in a few miles and back out. A few thousand troops backed with air support can go in and out like they've done in the past, but 200,000 troops...that's just an overkill for some quick incursion. That's definitely an invasion force in my opinion, and with US-Turkish relations going lower, I can somewhat see it happening. All that is needed is a big attack on Turkish soil by the PKK and all gloves may eventually come off.

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The Iraqis were claiming in late June or early July that the Turkish Army had 140,000 troops on their frontier, with 2 Army Corps I think, possibly 3, and if worse came to worse in the eyes of the Turks, I think that's about the max they'd use. They'd still need the other 120,000 troops in south-east Turkey to keep a lid on things there, security-wise. Turkey has not used more than two divisions at a time in any of its previous incursions into Northern Iraq. It's good that the Turkish Government is not talking about anything more than an incursion, but they certainly have the force at hand to go all the way to Kirkuk if they saw fit to do so.

Mind you, the consequences for both the Turks and the Kurds of that, never mind for everyone else, are staggering. The Turkish Government is quite reluctant to go to war; it's many of the generals and a good chunk of the pulbic that wants to go into Iraq; the Government itself is both at odds with the Army and has a lot of backing from the Kurdish minority. Tight situation.

Its putting everybody between a Rock and a Hard place, not least the US who is having to balance between its old NATO allie Turkey and its new Oil Owning friends the Kurds.

I think underlying this is Turkish concerns for the attitude from the current US adminsitration towards those that have and those that have not oil. The US cannot sit on the fence on this matter and will have to choose one side or another and live with the long term security consequences.

Seen through that prism the implications of Congress choosing now to bring up the Armenian Motion must be all the more concerning for Ankhara!

If Turkey does plan on just a small attack on the border they probably will use limited force, but if They try to push into the Kandil Mountains, which they never have before but some are suggesting they would this time, they'd definitely need at least 50,000 troops.

There were reports a few months back saying they may try to keep those large numbers of troops in Northern Iraq six months.

Any conflict with the peshmergas will probably bring out a lot of Turkish troops, though. The Kurds may be willing to tolerate a small incursion on the border, but they'll likely fight of any penetration deeper than that. With Sunni groups joining together and Sadr reconciling with SCIRI, we could see a united Iraqi front against such an invasion.

crazyinsane105 said:

Well a better question would be as to why the Turks have even bothered to place these many troops right by the border for just a limited incursion. It doesn't make any sense placing hundreds of thousands of troops just go in a few miles and back out. A few thousand troops backed with air support can go in and out like they've done in the past, but 200,000 troops...that's just an overkill for some quick incursion. That's definitely an invasion force in my opinion, and with US-Turkish relations going lower, I can somewhat see it happening. All that is needed is a big attack on Turkish soil by the PKK and all gloves may eventually come off.

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I'm not pretending to understand the Turkish General Staff's intentions but logically the 200,000 troops could only be there to prevent the PKK from crossing into Turkey and going back again.

Finn McCool said:

I'm not pretending to understand the Turkish General Staff's intentions but logically the 200,000 troops could only be there to prevent the PKK from crossing into Turkey and going back again.

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That does make some sense...but again, does Turkey really need 200,000 troops for such a feat? Don't know, maybe they do because of the geography of the territory.

Here's another interesting thing:

"There are steps that we will take," Turkey's prime minister told reporters, but without elaboration. It also wasn't clear if he meant his government would act immediately or wait to see what happens to the resolution in Congress.

He declined to answer questions about whether Turkey might shut down Incirlik air base in southern Turkey, a major cargo hub for U.S. and allied military forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Turkey's Mediterranean port of Iskenderun is also used to ferry goods to American troops.

"You don't talk about such things, you just do them," Erdogan said.


Whats at stake for US:

About 70 percent of U.S. air cargo headed for Iraq goes through Turkey as does about one-third of the fuel used by the U.S. military there. U.S. bases also get water and other supplies carried in overland by Turkish truckers who cross into Iraq's northern Kurdish region.

In addition, C-17 cargo planes fly military supplies to U.S. soldiers in remote areas of Iraq from Incirlik, avoiding the use of Iraqi roads vulnerable to bomb attacks. U.S. officials say the arrangement helps reduce American casualties.




The Turks aren't happy about the genocide bill at all, they've recalled their ambassador and the Prime Minister hasn't ruled out the option of shutting down US military options via Iraq.

Tehran must be very pleased by the current crisis in turko-american relations precipitated by mindless and arrogant US politicians intent to vote for a humiliating Congress resolution endangering a pivotal US strategic partnership. Iran was indeed more provident in it's approach regarding ties with Ankara...

After all it remains to be seen whether the Turkish Army will penetrate deeply into iraqi ´Kurdistan´or even conquer Kirkuk (...illegally occupied by Britain after 1918 and later forced off from Ankara by an unequal treaty in 1926) but there is no doubt that they have the necessary capabilities. None of the diverse Peshmerga units like Barzani's KDP, Talabani's PUK or PKK would be capable to stand only a few days against the Kara Kuvvetleri!

(...of course the Kurd's would resort to guerilla/terrorist warfare after their initial defeat but their neat little US protected statelet would have evaporated for the time being.)

Violet Oboe said:

Tehran must be very pleased by the current crisis in turko-american relations preciptitated by mindless and arrogant US politicians intent to vote for a humiliating Congress resolution endangering a pivotal US strategic partnership. Iran was indeed more provident in it's approach regarding ties with Ankara...

After all it remains to be seen whether the Turkish Army will penetrate deeply into iraqi ´Kurdistan´or even conquer Kirkuk (...illegally occupied by Britain after 1918 and later forced off from Ankara by an unequal treaty in 1926) but there is no doubt that they have the necessary capabilities. None of the diverse Peshmerga units like Barzani's KDP, Talabani's PUK or PKK would be capable to stand only a few days against the Kara Kuvvetleri!

(...of course the Kurd's would resort to guerilla/terrorist warfare after their initial defeat but their neat little US protected statelet would have evaporated for the time being.)

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Militarily the ball is in the Turkish Army's hands. If they gradually escalate like the Israelis in Lebanon they could end up with a similiar situation on their hands in which they suffer unecessary casualties and lose a lot of public support. But if they bring a lot of force to bear right away nothing the Kurds can muster can stand in their way.

It's quite possible that if this operation is not executed with parlimentary approval the Army will do it anyway. They are dead-set on it and have been known to do similar things before, for lesser reasons.

It seems that we've forecasted this particular crisis pretty well, all that's left now is to wait to see what happens.

Finn McCool said:

Militarily the ball is in the Turkish Army's hands. If they gradually escalate like the Israelis in Lebanon they could end up with a similiar situation on their hands in which they suffer unecessary casualties and lose a lot of public support. But if they bring a lot of force to bear right away nothing the Kurds can muster can stand in their way.

It's quite possible that if this operation is not executed with parlimentary approval the Army will do it anyway. They are dead-set on it and have been known to do similar things before, for lesser reasons.

It seems that we've forecasted this particular crisis pretty well, all that's left now is to wait to see what happens.

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There's a huge difference between Turkey and Israel. The Turks have never really been afraid to take casualties, while the Israelis are just about the opposite. And if the Turks do bear down their entire military force on Kurdistan, the Iranians and Syrians will also get involved as they too have problems with some factions of the Kurds.