Possible Turkish incursion into Iraq

Finn McCool said:

Are there any alternative names for Kandil? I can't find it on Google Earth. However I did find a base with quite a few helicopters in Sirinak. Obviously these pictures are not real-time but they have the capability to be quite air-mobile out of Sirinak. I also took a look at the routes out of the mountains and the general terrain. If the Turkish General Staff really wanted to drive all the way to Kirkuk, they would probably attack through the town of Zakho, through farmland, bypassing the mountains of Dahuk Province and giving them a staight shot at Irbil and from there Kirkuk. They would have to cross a river (the name of which I cannot find). That route would not get at the PKK bases but the Turks have enough troops to eliminate them in a seperate operation.

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Well Finn, I think your strategic sense serves you well.

Here's an article (originally sourced to Debka) from a week ago today that describes the Turkish disposition for battle (scroll down towards the bottom of the page):



It seems that until the events of the last few days, US diplomacy was achieving quite some success. The Turks had two entire armoured divisions in their forming-up positions at the Iraqi border, one division across the border from the Iraqi town of Zakho, and the other division across from Dahuk. Under pressure from the US, the Turks had withdrawn both divisions by last Sunday to bases in Hakkri and Siranak Provinces (not far away). Obviously, until the US got a hold of them, the Turks were ready for something very big (the entire US Army only has 2 armored divisions itself).

There are at least 75 helicopters deployed in the area, reported to be used for commando operations against the PKK in the Matin and Kandil (Qandil) Mountain Ranges - good eyes, Finn. Especially after the events of the last 5 days, that clearly remains a military possibility.

Now, as to whether the events of the last few days may or have caused the Turks to revert to their original plans, whatever those were, there are reports coming out of south-east Turkey of more troops moving to the border (the 2 Armoured Divisions returning to their forming-up positions?). And behind those 2 armd divs, are at least 3 Army Corps, probably more - the permanent resident 7th Corps (HQ normally at Diyarbakir), as well as the 2nd and 3rd Corps - both from western Turkey (HQ normally at Gelibolu and Istanbul, respectively). Both of the latter Corps were moved to the south-east starting late last year.

There are a variety of sources stating figures like 60,000 Turkish troops invading, possibly going all the way to Kirkuk, and others saying that about the same number will be used in an incursion, and then leaving 15,000 troops (a division) permanently garrisoned in northern Iraq. Lots of speculation, lots of "reports". The Iraqis themselves were claiming that 140,000 of the 260,000Turkish troops in the south-east of Turkey were on the Iraq border back in the summer.

But 2 Armoured Divisions is pretty unambiguous, unless you're just trying to send an unambiguous message to someone.

Just to complicate matters, the IRGC which has had troops on the Iran-Iraq border in the Kurdish areas, is also active again, apparently.

Just to complicate matters, the IRGC which has had troops on the Iran-Iraq border in the Kurdish areas, is also active again, apparently.

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Iran may be calling for diplomacy, but there have been a lot of reports that Turkey and Iran are working together. Some reports indicate Turkish troops are helping to train the Iranians fighting the PEJAK and some even suggest Turkey and Iran have plans for a joint invasion of Northern Iraq.

I find it kind of interesting that when Turkey backs down Iran steps it up and Iran backs down Turkey steps it up. That's what's been going on for the past few months.

Before August it was mainly Turkey going after the Kurds with a small-scale incursion one time but in August it switched to the Iranians and they made a small-scale incursion too.

When the Turks were really pressing there were reports of Iran helping them with shelling and officers in Turkey. When it was Iran the reports were of Turkey helping them with shelling and Turkish officers helping Iran.

There has really been no let up in the Kurdish region for the past few months. Iran and Turkey have just been switching positions.

Yes indeed, Turko-Iranian relations are currently quite warm just like in the old days of Atatürk and Reza Shah during the 1930's!

And guess what! Both were busy in putting down Kurdish insurrections in 1930 and 1937! :nono: (...interestingly Iraq played a prominent role here either since former Iraqi strongman Baqr Sidki was a Kurd (mysteriously murdered in '37)).

Obviously invasions of outside forces come and go in the midlle east but the old regional powers of ´eternal´ Turkey (Ottoman Empire) and Iran (Persian Empire) stay for the centuries... just like the Kurds are virtually caught in a vicious circle of tragic and futile militancy.

- Why Turkey would want to invade norther Iraq?
- How open is the Turkey/Norther Iraq border?

It must be in the US foreign policy interest that Turkey invades Northern Iraq or else it just could not happen. There is too much at stake for the US military interest.

alwaysfresh said:

- Why Turkey would want to invade norther Iraq?
- How open is the Turkey/Norther Iraq border?

There is too much at stake for the US military interest.

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The Tigris River valley is wide-open to armoured operations pretty much all the way down almost to Basra, but in the far north, east of the Tigris River are the Matin and then the Kandil mountain ranges - almost impassible to anything except foot infantry.

Turkey has consistently stated that it will never accept an independent Kurdish state. The principal economic base for an indepdendent Kurdish state would be the oilfields around Kirkuk. Kirkuk is composed of a mixed population of Kurds, Arabs (I'm not sure if their are Assyrians here, but probably) - and Turkomen, cousins of the Turks. There is a referendum scheduled for mid-December on whether or not Kirkuk will be formally annexed to the Kurdish Region, and there are accusations that Kurds have been driving out non-Kurds and bringing in more Kurds in order to ensure that the referendum passes, and Kirkuk formally passes to Kurdish control. There is a proposal for this referendum to be postponed until May of next year.

With the PKK, for its own reasons (being marginalized by the mainstream Iraqi Kurdish parties), baiting the Turks on the one hand, and the possibility (even probability) that Kirkuk with its great oilfields being annexed to Iraqi Kurdistan sometime within the next few to several months, the Turks are not to take all of this lying down. Reportedly they are now demanding that the US military destroy the PKK forces and their bases in the Matin and Kandill Ranges, and that they expect no effective help from the Iraqi government - the Iraqi government says (with some justification) that it is incapable of doing so itself.

The US for its part is desperately trying to stave off a Turkish invasion; if one does in fact occur, not only can the US do nothing about it, but if the Kurdish units of the Iraqi Army and Police move north to fight the Turks, most of the "best" Iraqi forces will be withdrawn from the counter-insurgency war, leaving the US stuck and overwhelmed there. As for the US rushing to save the Iraqi Kurds, dream on. The Turkish Army is, man-for-man, one of the best in the world, its only real weakness being its somewhat older equipment compared to the US; it is better-led, -trained, and -disciplined (in a military sense) than most other Western Armies (with about half a dozen or so exceptions). The most the US would attempt to do is to take up a symbolic "trip-wire" position somewhere north of Tikrit; any further north than that would entail real risks unless the Turks were confining themselves to north of Irbil.

The US has more to lose from a Turkish invasion than anyone else except the Kurds. The Americans are desperately pulling out all the stops to prevent this from happening, or at least to limit the damage done if the Turks do something less than full-invasion.

If it is in US Military interest for Turkey to attack then the US is just buying time to put controls in place to control changes that will occur within Iraq.

If it is not in the interest of US foreign policy and considering the US military has hundreds of 1000's of troops in Iraq, there is no doubt that the CIA will put all tactics at use against Turkey's government and the moral of the people.

There is no conceivable US Government interest in any Turkish invasion of Iraq; the US Secretary of State said yesterday that the Turks have given her "a few days". Turkey is in the driver's seat, and the Americans are desperate to try to stave off a Turkish attack, or at least to try to persuade the Turks to only go so far. Turkey is in the driver's seat, and the US does not have the power to stop it, and everyone in the Middle East is watching this and knows it, including the US.

Hardly incidently, today several hundred (it appears from an infantry battalion)Turkish troops have assembled on the Iraqi border at a town called Ketukovo (or something like that); another report from Zaman states that troops have arrived in the border town of Uludere - given the difficulty in getting news from here, these may or may not be referring to the same thing - it's hard to tell:



Zaman claims 100,000 Turkish troops are now on the Iraqi border. Time's running out.

Wow, 100,000 troops. I imagine some are intended to secure the border, though I think we could see 50,000 or more sent in.

I think on Wednesday we might see movement or perhaps early Tuesday. October 24th was a scheduled meeting of the National Security Council, it's possible they'll use this to make the final decision. Babacan's visit to Iraq may be to do nothing but deliver a final ultimatum.

Then again, maybe I'm just being an alarmist.

Norfolk said:

There is no conceivable US Government interest in any Turkish invasion of Iraq; the US Secretary of State said yesterday that the Turks have given her "a few days". Turkey is in the driver's seat, and the Americans are desperate to try to stave off a Turkish attack, or at least to try to persuade the Turks to only go so far. Turkey is in the driver's seat, and the US does not have the power to stop it, and everyone in the Middle East is watching this and knows it, including the US.

Hardly incidently, today several thousand Turkish troops have assembled on the Iraqi border at a town called Ketukovo (or something like that); another report from Zaman states that troops have arrived in the border town of Uludere - given the difficulty in getting news from here, these may or may not be referring to the same thing - it's hard to tell:

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Zaman claims 100,000 Turkish troops are now on the Iraqi border. Time's running out.

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I think what we are seeing here is that the Turkish withdrew their troops from the attack starting line as a result of US pressure and are moving some back, but not all. I've looked at Sirnak Province and Turkey and Dahuk Province in Iraq on Google Earth very throughly, I didn't see any place on there called Ketukovo, although I did find Uludere. It's a hamlet.

I still say that the main Turkish attack, if it comes, will come through Zakho. It's a critical road junction; from Zakho there are roads that go a short distance into good tank coutry that leads towards Irbil and Mosul. Capturing the valley that the town is located in would also make it difficult for the PKK rebels to retreat from the Kandil mountains into the rest of Kurdistan.

Finn McCool said:

I think what we are seeing here is that the Turkish withdrew their troops from the attack starting line as a result of US pressure and are moving some back, but not all. I've looked at Sirnak Province and Turkey and Dahuk Province in Iraq on Google Earth very throughly, I didn't see any place on there called Ketukovo, although I did find Uludere. It's a hamlet.

I still say that the main Turkish attack, if it comes, will come through Zakho. It's a critical road junction; from Zakho there are roads that go a short distance into good tank coutry that leads towards Irbil and Mosul. Capturing the valley that the town is located in would also make it difficult for the PKK rebels to retreat from the Kandil mountains into the rest of Kurdistan.

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I'm having some trouble believing that Turkey withdrew their troops from the border just because of US pressure. The entire country along with the military is pretty set on military action, especially with what happened over the weekend. I think Turkey simply wants to show the world they are giving diplomacy a last chance and that they aren't the aggressors but the victims (which is actually kinda true in this case).