Possible Turkish incursion into Iraq
- Thread starter Finn McCool
- Start date
Al Maliki can't even extend his influence 500 meters beyond the Green Zone, so I doubt he can extend whatever influence he has in Northern Iraq. If there is an invasion, he's going to have to very hard choices: support the invasion (in which he'll lose whatever support that his coalition has) or go against the invasion (in which he won't be able to do much anyway). Either way, he will lose support.
Vlad Plasmius
Junior Member
It seems Erdogan is saying they're going to invade:
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It also looks like diplomacy won't be able to succeed:
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It seems like their best won't be good enough and the Kurds continue to be intractable.
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It also looks like diplomacy won't be able to succeed:
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It seems like their best won't be good enough and the Kurds continue to be intractable.
Izmir has been a home to NATO for some years. As for the EU, any chance the Turks had for membership has been deep-sixed by Nancy Pelosi's ill advised non-binding "genocide resolution". Even though it has lost significant support within the Congress and will be tabled, the damage has already been done, i. e., like trying to unring a bell. Turkish membership in the EU has been delayed partly because of human rights issues. Because of its long standing alliance with and support of the US, it was logical for the Turks to assume that it could rely on those factors for lending the credibility it needed for gaining EU membership in spite of the machinations of the Ottoman Empire nearly a century ago. The world wide publication of the existence of such a resolution puts front and center the painful reopening of this old unhealable wound, once again renewing skepticism of Turkey's worthiness on the part of EU's member nations. Someone should provide Nancy Pelosi with a history of Turkey's role in the region from the first battle of the Korean War in June of 1950 to the vital supplies passing through Adana and Incirlik to our troops right up to this moment. I get the feeling that Capitol Hill is just one big cocktail party where we do our friends favors just to keep peace in the neighborhood. The safety of our troops be damned. Thanks, Nancy.
If Turkey undertakes a full-scale invasion of Kurdistan, they will risk condemnation from the US and the EU, but there will be no economic or political punishment faced by Turkey. They probably won't be admitted into the EU for sure.
On the other hand, if Iran invaded Kurdistan (even jointly with Turkey), it might give the US the impetus to finally strike Iran. Because it's obvious that the US wants to invade Iran, but it does not want to take the pre-emptive approach that it did against Iraq, since domestic support and international support from allies of such a strike would be little to none. The US wants Iran to look like the aggressors, and an Iranian invasion of Kurdistan will be painted as an aggressive move by the US government and the media.
Just taking Iran/Turkey's side for the moment (I'm actually neutral), it would be best for Iran to stay away from the conflict, while letting Turkey do it's job.
On the other hand, if Iran invaded Kurdistan (even jointly with Turkey), it might give the US the impetus to finally strike Iran. Because it's obvious that the US wants to invade Iran, but it does not want to take the pre-emptive approach that it did against Iraq, since domestic support and international support from allies of such a strike would be little to none. The US wants Iran to look like the aggressors, and an Iranian invasion of Kurdistan will be painted as an aggressive move by the US government and the media.
Just taking Iran/Turkey's side for the moment (I'm actually neutral), it would be best for Iran to stay away from the conflict, while letting Turkey do it's job.
Vlad Plasmius
Junior Member
Well one recent report indicated Iran is getting reassurance from Russia that could mean Russia protecting Iran from the U.S.
As it goes Russia would consider an attack on Iran essentially an attack on Russia, which probably means Russia would put the U.S. in a position of going after Iran and fighting Russia, or leaving Iran alone, thus avoiding a war with Russia.
As it goes Russia would consider an attack on Iran essentially an attack on Russia, which probably means Russia would put the U.S. in a position of going after Iran and fighting Russia, or leaving Iran alone, thus avoiding a war with Russia.
Unless it decides it can use a proxy in the form of the Kurds, especially those living in the countries it wants to attack. This option means that the ground action would all be Kurdish and the US could simply support from the air.
Bad news for Turkey as it could mean that they are considered disposable!
Bad news for Turkey as it could mean that they are considered disposable!
alwaysfresh
New Member
Iran says documents show US backing 'terrorists'
"Tehran says the rebels are operating in Iraq with US forces present in the country and this shows Washington is refraining from tackling them."
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"Babacan, whose country's ties with the United States have deteriorated sharply in recent weeks, thanked Iran for helping Turkey fight the PKK guerrillas and said the two sides had talked about continuing their cooperation."
I think PKK is going to be destroyed by the US forces. For the support of Turkey.
"Tehran says the rebels are operating in Iraq with US forces present in the country and this shows Washington is refraining from tackling them."
...
"Babacan, whose country's ties with the United States have deteriorated sharply in recent weeks, thanked Iran for helping Turkey fight the PKK guerrillas and said the two sides had talked about continuing their cooperation."
I think PKK is going to be destroyed by the US forces. For the support of Turkey.