PLAN Type 035/039/091/092 Submarine Thread

schlieffen

New Member
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

The signiture level of 094 is between Delta II and Delta III according to US intel, I don't think this could guarantee a hostile SSN detect them at long range, especially if the boomers are running at low speed. If they are kept close to chinese shore there is no need to go faster than, let's say 10 knots throughout the voyage.

Concerning that annual report, I think acoustic surveillance is not the sole source of intelligence. When they said 'patrol', it's operational deployment by US standards and most likely excluded training, ferry and test etc. Or does anyone seriously believed the 50+ sub fleet only set sail (everything acounted) for less than 20 times a year? That's not even enough to keep the crew operational. It was even much less just a few years ago. I myself have eyewitnessed multiple Chinese diesel submarines at sea within a month. So how does SOSUS or other acoustic sensors tell the nature of the target's mission every time a Chineses submarine come out of habour? Either they have some sort of criterion that only count it as a potential patrol when certain conditions are met, i.e., go beyond a certain distance offshore or leave/enter certain areas, or there are other sources to supplement the passive sonars. Electronic intel, satellite imagery even human intel, I believe they have access to all of them.
 
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Engineer

Major
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

Actually, I think the ONI report just conviently not talk about the submarine activities that were not detected.
 

i.e.

Senior Member
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

you can keep tabs on how many subs went on patrol by various means, one is just sitting at the harbor and count which ones are going out.

get tracked and spotted one time doesn't mean it is getting tracked 100, 90 or even 50% of the time it is on patrol.

If a diesel sub turns off its engines and just sit there in the murky waters off pearl river deltas.
how the hell do you see it unless you have active sonar pinging it short range?
 

navyreco

Senior Member
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

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The Chinese Navy is expected to procure 30 more submarines by 2020 and bring the total from the current 62 to 100 by 2030, Hong Kong's Ming Pao daily reported on Tuesday. According to the paper, the U.S. has 75 subs, 26 of them deployed in the Asia-Pacific region. China is building up its Navy, including retrofitting its first aircraft carrier.

Bloomberg News quoted experts as predicting that Asia-Pacific nations will have up to 86 more subs by 2020.
 

sealordlawrence

Junior Member
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

That article is complete nonsense and makes the ridiculous assumption that China will not retire any subs, which of course it will, franco-russe has done some excellent work tracking the Chinese inventory and force structure and it is apparent from that that we are witnessing modernisation and not numerical growth.
 

franco-russe

Senior Member
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

Thanks for the kind words. I do actually think that there will be a slight increase in PLAN’s operational submarine strength.

I believe it is possible that will form two new submarine flotillas, raising their number from the present six to eight, or 64 submarines. They would be formed from the 16 YUAN I/II on order. I guess one could be at Daxiedao, branching off the YUAN’s now with 22 Submarine Flotilla, the second at Xiaopingdao, the present 62 Submarine Flotilla (tests/experiments).

On paper, the stregth of the PLAN SSK will probably remain the same as today, only the few remaining ROMEO’s that are never seen at sea will be retired as YUAN’s enter service.
 

sealordlawrence

Junior Member
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

Thank you for the response franco-russe, your comment is the reason for my kind words, sensible and rational analysis founded in force structure analysis. I would also point out that even 64 is a long way of 100. I am more conservative for the time being, I actually expect to see most of Ming's and possibly even some of the early Song's drift out of sight in the coming years- though of course time will tell.
 

franco-russe

Senior Member
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

I could easily see the four oldest MING's (342, 352-354) which were built in the 80's, being soon replaced by YUAN (perhaps that is why they also ordered a batch of YUAN's from Jiangnan?), but the last MING, 312, was built as late as 2001 and will not be replaced any time soon.
 

sealordlawrence

Junior Member
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

The last Ming may be young, but I think we need to be careful about assuming that means that it will enjoy a long and happy life of front-line service. The class is clearly obsolete and will only become more so as advanced SSKs proliferate throughout the region. I maintain that there is a strong possibility that instead we will see them have quite short lives and soon be relegated to training and testing roles.
 
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