mental note to self - must improve typing. way too many typo's. sorry!
PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)
- Thread starter bd popeye
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mental note to self - must improve typing. way too many typo's. sorry!
I do not believe that the demo module was specifically for the 002. It does not look right for that, IMHO. I believe it was just that, a demo...more along the lines of a general naval technology demonstrator.
Anyhow, the point is, from my perspective, that the original post was worded to indicate a specific construction site and that the demo modules were specifically related to 002, and I do not believe we know that at all.
I can believe that 002 first steel may have been cut...though I do not believe there is any official announcement of that to date, and we really have no way of knowing if that is true or not...without saying that a specific place in a specific yard is where it is building at this point, or that the demo modules were specific 002 design.
Let's just let this rest at this point.
No need for any kind of prolonged back and forth regarding it. At this point it would be a meaningless argument.
We will know soo enough where 002 is being built when we see the ship taking form,.
Anyhow, the point is, from my perspective, that the original post was worded to indicate a specific construction site and that the demo modules were specifically related to 002, and I do not believe we know that at all.
I can believe that 002 first steel may have been cut...though I do not believe there is any official announcement of that to date, and we really have no way of knowing if that is true or not...without saying that a specific place in a specific yard is where it is building at this point, or that the demo modules were specific 002 design.
Let's just let this rest at this point.
No need for any kind of prolonged back and forth regarding it. At this point it would be a meaningless argument.
We will know soo enough where 002 is being built when we see the ship taking form,.
I'm not interested in an argument, and I will of course stop this vein of discussion if you choose to exercise blue text, but until then I think it is worth pursuing just what he meant in context of larger activities.
From what I can currently read, nowhere in lcloo's post did he claim that the module itself was for 002 without also firmly having the word "demo" there as well.
The reason that demo module is being called "002 demo module" is because those are the rumours we presently have and the cumulative rumours from the last few years regarding that module. That is to say, no one is saying it will be used in the actual construction of 002, only that the rumours have told us its construction and existence was at least partly related to the 002 project. Maybe it was built for JNCX to demonstrate certain of their construction or design capabilities for the Navy to convince them to give the 002 contract to JNCX, who knows. We have no official information about the module, but we also cannot ignore the rumours.
We will also not be getting any sort of official acknowledgement of 002's activities for another few years if previous patterns are worth anything. In essence, I believe right now in regards to waiting for 002, we are in the 2013-2014 stage when we were waiting for 001A, i.e.: we have substantial rumours from sources judged to be credible, pointing to construction which has begun/or is imminent at a specific shipyard, with general characteristics of the ship known, but we will have to wait for a year or more until we see the first evidence of construction.
- In the case of 001A, back in 2013-2014 rumours told us that fabrication of modules had begun and that the ship would be built at DL, and that the ship would be STOBAR generally similar to Liaoning in size and configuration. We were also aware of these rumours earlier in about 2012, based on my memory. We then saw evidence of construction and module assembly in early 2015.
- In the case of 002, right now in early 2016, rumours are telling us that steel cutting will most likely begin this year, and the ship will be built at JN, and the ship will be CATOBAR, and be meaningfully larger than Liaoning. We've also been aware of all these rumours of 002 for a number of years now, but it is only in the last 24 hours or so that we've had much clearer predictions from credible sources repeating the rumour and giving a clear statement for when construction may supposedly happen. If these rumours pan out, we will probably see evidence of construction and module assembly some time in 2018.
In other words, I think everything lcloo posted (or at least his posts based on what I can currently see) was consistent with what we currently know and/or highly suspect about the 002 project based on the credible rumours that we've had access to over the last few years.
In fact I highly value his posts due to his willingness to promptly post and translate rumours directly from the Chinese boards from credible individuals, so I feel the need to defend him in this case when all that he has written seems broadly accurate and reasonable.
In a sense this is the way PLA being "transparent", or intentional leaking. It all starts with rumors which keeps people guessing, up to a point when these rumors become fairly creadible and close to the truth.
To me the rumors about 002 has reached this point, that the project has started "moving", that it'll be constructed at JN shipyard, that it'll be conventional powered, with steam CAT. If it's a guess then it's a reasonable guess, a logical one that fits all signs and PLA planning pattern.
Of course there is always the trap of intentional deception, that if you become relying on these rumors, you may get it wrong sometime. But at least in this case, better believe it than not. People now starts saying the one after 002 will be nuclear powered with EMCAT, now this is obviously rumor way too early and no reason to believe it.
I'm actually a bit surprised that they confirmed 001A this early. They could wait a bit more till the flight deck takes shape. To me this is a strong indication that 001A will be laubched this year, otherwise it's just too unchinese for me.
Basically 001A buys 3 years time for 002 design to mature, that's the way I see it. Consider that 001A is Commissioned in 2012, even if 001A gets Commissioned in 2019, this is still a long gap and it looks to me that they are really taking the time to be incremental and get it right, not spurred by the geopolitical heat in any way.
My guess is PLA Navy will Commission two carriers per decade. This decade, two ski jump ones, next decade, two conventional CAT, then two nuclear powered ones with EMCAT in 2030s.
So prof. Ma will have to wait 15+ years before his EMCAT becomes reality, quite dissapointing if it you ask me.
To me the rumors about 002 has reached this point, that the project has started "moving", that it'll be constructed at JN shipyard, that it'll be conventional powered, with steam CAT. If it's a guess then it's a reasonable guess, a logical one that fits all signs and PLA planning pattern.
Of course there is always the trap of intentional deception, that if you become relying on these rumors, you may get it wrong sometime. But at least in this case, better believe it than not. People now starts saying the one after 002 will be nuclear powered with EMCAT, now this is obviously rumor way too early and no reason to believe it.
I'm actually a bit surprised that they confirmed 001A this early. They could wait a bit more till the flight deck takes shape. To me this is a strong indication that 001A will be laubched this year, otherwise it's just too unchinese for me.
Basically 001A buys 3 years time for 002 design to mature, that's the way I see it. Consider that 001A is Commissioned in 2012, even if 001A gets Commissioned in 2019, this is still a long gap and it looks to me that they are really taking the time to be incremental and get it right, not spurred by the geopolitical heat in any way.
My guess is PLA Navy will Commission two carriers per decade. This decade, two ski jump ones, next decade, two conventional CAT, then two nuclear powered ones with EMCAT in 2030s.
So prof. Ma will have to wait 15+ years before his EMCAT becomes reality, quite dissapointing if it you ask me.
Bltizo, let's let it rest.
The explanations about it somehow being directly linked to 002 are so full of speculation that there is no sense at this point in saying that the modules are in any sense "002" demos.
They are hanger modules, and were, IMHO, technology demonstrators more of a kin to "here's the type of thing we can do with hangers."
I do not believe at the time they were done, nor in the way they were constructed, that they were directly related to the final 002 design...and that is my point.
We should not go to that level saying..."these are 002 demo modules," basically inferring that this is how 002 will look, or that this was done to show what 002 would look like.
Let's just let that drop.
I believe it very possible...even probably...that 002 first steel may have been cut. But that in itself is normally...at least for a carrier...well in advance of actual block or module construction.
We shall see it when it builds.
I know some would like for SD to get into the types of speculation we see at some Chinese sites and other sites. I do not intend to go there to that level here on SD.
People can go to those boards and engage in that.
Most often, that type of speculation is simply wrong at initial stages and then morphs into what actually happens as more evidence is available.
We have always prided SD in being a little more professional and considered than that. We get there...but we do based on better evidence and on the input of people who have actually been involved in these types of programs and within various military services who grace our forum.
Anyhow...I am finished with this particular tangent of the discussion.
Zool
Junior Member
It isn't my intent to jump on anyone in particular with this but I do want to directly support this statement, as we did seem to lose JayBird as a posting member here after a moderation for referring too much to Chinese board sources in threads. Granted it was extreme to stop posting full stop after that one moderation, but it happened and I too greatly value folks who can bring Chinese sourced information here and a Chinese perspective on topics in general. So thank you to those who do the work, try to qualify the information and bring it to us. Cheers.
Jeff, I am willing to close this discussion on this particular thread as well, but as someone who's been on this forum for a number of years now and is labelled with a rather embarrasingly high number of posts, I feel an obligation to say that I think the forum will suffer if we discourage the presentation, discussion, and critical analysis of rumours from the Chinese language military forums.
This forum is one of the few relatively professional and open access English language outlet dedicated to Chinese military developments, and despite the industry or even military experience that some members have, as well as maturity of the community (most of the community at least), I have always believed that the crowning jewel of Sinodefence Forum has been the openness to discussing rumours and also the experience of individuals in critically dissecting rumours to help us keep track of and predict the Chinese military developments that we cannot see via pictures and which we cannot read from official disclosures.
From J-20 to Y-20, from 054/A to 056, from 052D to 055, and from 001A which we see to 002 which we are currently anticipating -- all of these projects were first posted as rumours on the Chinese boards before we saw any physical evidence of them, and the posts from individuals with a credible or reliable track record were then generously posted and translated by members and posted here. The professionalism of SDF is to be commended -- but I feel that it was the professionalism in the way members on SDF could discuss rumours in a reasonable and critical manner to reach conclusions which was the greatest asset.
Therefore I strongly feel like this is a discussion which should be had, if not in this thread then in a dedicated other thread.
The only reason I say this is because you of course are a moderator and I and many others are not, therefore if the goal is to discourage the posting of rumours then I think it is important to clearly know what is welcomed and what isn't, otherwise SDF as a Chinese military watching forum will be no better than defencetalk or key forums.
I for one, believe that following the Chinese military is like trying to cross the river by feeling the stones (to paraphase a famous quote) -- and removing the ability to critically discuss rumours will be like removing one foot from a person, and it will make the river crossing just that much more difficult.
It is possible, however it is also worth considering that Rosyth drydock where the QE class CVFs were built, used the Goliath crane which was Chinese made, and appeared to be directly used for carrier construction without constructing a civilian ship (from what I understand).
Ultimately I feel like a product like a crane should have gone through necessary testing before being formally commissioned as operational, and of course proper design of a crane should also ensure that it and its related equipment are functioning as normal.
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