PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

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Blitzo

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We probably won't need to wait until 2022 to see 002 take shape (assuming that steel cutting has started). The 001A was begun in 2013 and rumor has it that much of the hull should be completed by 2016.

I did say visual confirmation of 002 at the latest...
In other words, visual confirmation is where everyone fully agrees that 002 is definitely under construction (AKA with features that no one can dispute, such as flight deck, island etc), and factoring in possible delays during construction. So a worst case scenario.

More likely we'll get visual confirmation around at least a year before 2020.
 

kroko

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No... if there was an "official leak" we'd be hearing it from fyjs or cjbdy first, not friggin' asahi shimbun...
Didnt fzgfzy said in august that 002 wont start construction before Spring 2016 ? If we are seeing 001 being built, then i dont think that 002 is already under construction but...

We probably won't need to wait until 2022 to see 002 take shape (assuming that steel cutting has started). The 001A was begun in 2013 and rumor has it that much of the hull should be completed by 2016.

Actually i havent seen this hull (001) being built in 2014, The janes picture in 27 february shows the first pieces being assembled in the shipyard. Perhabs the modules were built before that.

That takes us to 002. The issue is: what is the state of the chinese catapult program? prototype? operacional? still in drawing board? we just dont know. We havent (it least myself) seen any exemple in photos, leaked or not.

Unless they are basing 002 on the ulyanovsk carrier that was being built with a ramp that would be replaced with catapults when they would complete development and be ready to deploy. Perhabs. But the thing is, without catapults, 002 will be just an enlarged 001 (if 002 is to be bigger than 001, that is. Could just be a catapult version of 001)
 

Intrepid

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I suspect that first a catapult on Liaoning will be installed and then a new aircraft carrier will be built with catapults.
 

Blitzo

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I suspect that first a catapult on Liaoning will be installed and then a new aircraft carrier will be built with catapults.

Doubtful. Installing a catapult on Liaoning is probably more trouble than it is worth given it was never designed for it. It is possible that 001A could be built with the ability to have a catapult fitted onto the waist...

But there's also no reason why they couldn't simply have vigorously tested new catapults on land to such a degree that they are confident to install it on a new carrier class (002) without needing a "trial" ship.
 

Blitzo

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Didnt fzgfzy said in august that 002 wont start construction before Spring 2016 ? If we are seeing 001 being built, then i dont think that 002 is already under construction but...

Okay, first of all I want to correct you by saying the ship at Dalian is considered 001A.
Liaoning is 001.
001A means it is going to share some features with Liaoning but also some improvements. It might be a bit bigger, it might have some internal changes, etc. We don't really know.

And seeing 001A under construction has nothing to do with whether or not 002 could also be under construction or not -- the two are being built at different shipyards.


Actually i havent seen this hull (001) being built in 2014, The janes picture in 27 february shows the first pieces being assembled in the shipyard. Perhabs the modules were built before that.

I think that is what he means -- that 001A's modules could have began fabrication in 2013 and it was only early this year that we saw them begin to be assembled.

That takes us to 002. The issue is: what is the state of the chinese catapult program? prototype? operacional? still in drawing board? we just dont know. We havent (it least myself) seen any exemple in photos, leaked or not.

Kroko, jeeez you've been here for years now -- absence of evidence does not mean evidence of absence.
More importantly, we've had a variety of fairly reliable rumours regarding both steam and EM catapult development and even directly from the Chinese navy itself (via Rear Admiral Ma Weiming) regarding the latter's existence and development.


Unless they are basing 002 on the ulyanovsk carrier that was being built with a ramp that would be replaced with catapults when they would complete development and be ready to deploy. Perhabs. But the thing is, without catapults, 002 will be just an enlarged 001 (if 002 is to be bigger than 001, that is. Could just be a catapult version of 001)

You're thinking about this the wrong way -- you are putting the fact that we have no solid picture evidence or detailed information of China's catapult programme(s) as more important than the persistent rumours over the years of what 002 would look like.

I'll describe how the logic should work, based on the precedence of rumours, evidence and lack of evidence in this case:
1: we get persistent, fairly reliable rumours that 002 will be CATOBAR
2: we wonder what stage China's catapult development is at and whether it could be ready for 002 or not
3: we appreciate that lack of evidence of China's catapult development doesn't mean it may not already be in advanced development
4: we appreciate that the persistent nature of the rumours could very well indicate by association, that the catapult programme (whether it is steam or EM) is likely mature enough to be used aboard 002 or expected to be mature enough to be used aboard 002 by the time it arrives
5: we wait to see what happens, with the understanding that based off present information and logic, 002 is expected to be a CATOBAR carrier and that the lack of detailed evidence around China's catapult development progress does not trump the much greater weight of the last few years of consistent rumours saying 002 will be CATOBAR


Also, where did you read that the Ulyanovsk class was meant to have its ski jump replaced by catapults? Common depictions of Ulyanovsk tend to show both a ski jump on the bow, as well as two catapults on the waist as per designed... I am not aware of the idea that the ski jump was meant to be replaced by catapults as part of the ship's design.
 

Blitzo

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The first installed steam catapult for military use:
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An older, smaller carrier recommissioned to serve as a testbed, while the Royal Navy itself at the time had a number of other carriers to fulfill its actual operational missions.
Not to mention that carriers of that era were also far simpler than modern carriers today, including Liaoning, and easier to be modified.

For the Chinese Navy, to modify Liaoning to install a catapult would not be an easy task and require not only substantial modification to the flight deck but also removal and addition of various internals as well. That would require Liaoning to spend substantial time at dock and reduce its availability and reduce China's available carriers to nil, meaning the Navy won't be able to train new pilots, nor train the deck crew, nor maintain their skills adequately for that time.

OTOH, China can instead build a full scale land based catapult in the same arrangement to how it would work aboard a ship and subject it to rigorous trials there instead. While it won't be quite as comprehensive as having trials at sea, it would likely be comprehensive enough, and when combined with its far lower cost and lower time cost, it would be far more viable to refitting Liaoning with a catapult...

So yes, technically China could modify Liaoning to serve as a testbed, but the trouble and time needed probably isn't worth it IMO, in the foreseeable future.

Maybe once China has a fleet of five other carriers in service then they could relegate Liaoning to more dedicated trial roles, but until then, it is unlikely.

Hell, even the USN who has a fleet of nuclear powered carriers, didn't bother with modifying just even one of the steam catapults aboard one of their CVNs to trial EMALS... instead they relied on land based test facilities and then began tests aboard the USS Ford itself directly. There is no reason why China cannot do so either.
 

Intrepid

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Hell, even the USN who has a fleet of nuclear powered carriers, didn't bother with modifying just even one of the steam catapults aboard one of their CVNs to trial EMALS... instead they relied on land based test facilities and then began tests aboard the USS Ford itself directly. There is no reason why China cannot do so either.
There are two reasons:
1. China has no experience
2. China has no operational carrier, there is no lack of a carrier.
 

Jeff Head

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Highly unlikely that the Chinese will ever go through the trouble or expense of installing a catapult on the Liaoning...or for that matter, IMHO...on the follow-on carrier that is built like the Liaoning.
'
Such an endeavor would be a tremendous and expensive undertaking for the Liaoning...and would prove unnecessary for the follow-on which they will operate just like the Liaoning. This will give them a tremendous advantage in training, in operations, and in logistics to have two that are so similar.

No, my guess is that the first catapults will be tested on land (and perhaps already have been) and will be installed on their 1st CATOBAR carrier, which may also have started building already.

Time will reveal all.
 
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