I suspect they can get the minimum surface escort ships needed for 3 CSG and 3 ESG ready by 2020, if not earlier, with enough surface combatants left for an SAG or two if needed.
Assuming an ESG needs 2 FFG and 2 DDGs, and a CSG needs 3-4 FFGs and 3 DDGs, then 3 of each will need 18ish FFGs and 15 DDGs in total. Clearly the PLAN already meets those numbers on paper, but to have all those FFGs be 054A (or the next generation frigate), and all DDGs to be 052C, 052D or 055, will take until 2020.
Also important is AORs. The PLAN currently has four 903/As with another two under various stages of construction/fitting out, and two older 905s. There is also the single 908. In theory, by 2020 PLAN could have enough modern AORs for 3 CSGs and 3 ESGs, but the 903As and 905s are a little bit small for true blue water operations, as well as slow to keep up with CSGs. What they really need are a few large fast combat support ships like the Supply class. They can still form a few good groups together with what they'll have by 2020, but they won't be able to move as fast as they'd like and they may have to assign two 903As per group.
The kicker is the actual LPD/LHA and CV construction, as well as SSN escort.
the chinese shipbuilding industry has shown they can build LPDs to an acceptable PLAN standard and at a fairly decent rate. The problem is the PLAN don't seem interested immediately in building more. The industry has also shown medium sized LHDs for export, with suggestions the PLAN are interested in bigger LHAs for their own fleet, but construction doesn't look on the immediate horizon. Landing craft, helicopters, are also challenges to be considered; they have the technology to produce competent, modern complements for future amphibs, they just can't seem to build them fast enough.
The situation for carriers is similar, if not a little bleaker; the PLAN carrier programme seems limited to liaoning at the moment, despite the fact that we know there must be behind the scenes business regarding domestic carrier development. At the most optimistic projection (i.e.: we see construction this year) we will only see the first domestic carrier operational at 2020 at the very earliest and it won't be fully combat capable. Then there are some performance issues regarding CATOBAR vs STOBAR (specifically fixed wing AEWC, and possibly whether J-15 can take off at MTOW on STOBAR), as well as training competent crews. Production of J-15s and future Y-7 AEWC are also important factors.
Finally, the PLAN can never truly feel secure until they have a good underwater escort, and even the latest SSN that some describe as 093B isn't at virginia or astute levels, not to mention their production rate is too low anyway. But in situations where the PLAN are not facing a technologically capable military in high intensity combat, then their relative SSN deficiency probably won't matter.
In the next few years it looks like the PLAN will be focused on building surface combatants. I think their number of DDGs and FFGs will indicate to us just the kind of power projection assets they'll want to field. It makes sense in a way, to develop and train escort ships first before committing to more expensive and more vulnerable power projection ships.
Assuming an ESG needs 2 FFG and 2 DDGs, and a CSG needs 3-4 FFGs and 3 DDGs, then 3 of each will need 18ish FFGs and 15 DDGs in total. Clearly the PLAN already meets those numbers on paper, but to have all those FFGs be 054A (or the next generation frigate), and all DDGs to be 052C, 052D or 055, will take until 2020.
Also important is AORs. The PLAN currently has four 903/As with another two under various stages of construction/fitting out, and two older 905s. There is also the single 908. In theory, by 2020 PLAN could have enough modern AORs for 3 CSGs and 3 ESGs, but the 903As and 905s are a little bit small for true blue water operations, as well as slow to keep up with CSGs. What they really need are a few large fast combat support ships like the Supply class. They can still form a few good groups together with what they'll have by 2020, but they won't be able to move as fast as they'd like and they may have to assign two 903As per group.
The kicker is the actual LPD/LHA and CV construction, as well as SSN escort.
the chinese shipbuilding industry has shown they can build LPDs to an acceptable PLAN standard and at a fairly decent rate. The problem is the PLAN don't seem interested immediately in building more. The industry has also shown medium sized LHDs for export, with suggestions the PLAN are interested in bigger LHAs for their own fleet, but construction doesn't look on the immediate horizon. Landing craft, helicopters, are also challenges to be considered; they have the technology to produce competent, modern complements for future amphibs, they just can't seem to build them fast enough.
The situation for carriers is similar, if not a little bleaker; the PLAN carrier programme seems limited to liaoning at the moment, despite the fact that we know there must be behind the scenes business regarding domestic carrier development. At the most optimistic projection (i.e.: we see construction this year) we will only see the first domestic carrier operational at 2020 at the very earliest and it won't be fully combat capable. Then there are some performance issues regarding CATOBAR vs STOBAR (specifically fixed wing AEWC, and possibly whether J-15 can take off at MTOW on STOBAR), as well as training competent crews. Production of J-15s and future Y-7 AEWC are also important factors.
Finally, the PLAN can never truly feel secure until they have a good underwater escort, and even the latest SSN that some describe as 093B isn't at virginia or astute levels, not to mention their production rate is too low anyway. But in situations where the PLAN are not facing a technologically capable military in high intensity combat, then their relative SSN deficiency probably won't matter.
In the next few years it looks like the PLAN will be focused on building surface combatants. I think their number of DDGs and FFGs will indicate to us just the kind of power projection assets they'll want to field. It makes sense in a way, to develop and train escort ships first before committing to more expensive and more vulnerable power projection ships.
